Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Debt Ceiling Deal Optimism, US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, AI Stock Frenzy, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.1 -4.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .82%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.8 +2.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 157.4 +.08%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 +1.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 28.5 -10.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +14.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -21.4%

• NYSE Arms 1.10 +12.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.7 -1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 393.44 -1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 424.0 unch.
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 94.95 -2.5% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 322.30 -1.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 188.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 127.2 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 256.87 -.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.8 unch.

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 7.25 basis points +1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.75 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 187.0 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 719.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 92.0 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 46.9 -.44%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.32% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 25.4 euros/megawatt-hour  -8.4%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.9 +6.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.0 -5.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.8 +.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(482 of 500 reporting) -3.0% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.97 +.34:  Growth Rate +2.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 18.1 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.23% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% -.6 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 200.03 +.07: Growth Rate +29.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.6 +1.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .01 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.73 -3.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -69.5 basis points (2s/10s) -7.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.89% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.65% unch.: CPI YoY +4.12% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 50.0%(+4.8 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 43.7%(+8.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +279 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -61 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -2.5% 2) Biotech -2.2% 3) Retail -2.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• RNG, DO, IONS, SE, PARA, WB, SQM, TERN, NFE, EQNR, JD, HASI, SSL, PMT, T, OLLI, ACAD, GLBE, U, IE, CVI, NTLA, XRX, ANF, INTC, M, NABL, LMND, HLF, SDGR, BZ, PTCT, PODD, CAL, HROW, VYGR, DLTR, UPST, ILMN, MRTX, PATH, RAMP, AEO, AVAV, SNOW, IEP, TITN and BTAI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DLTR 2) EWC 3) VFC 4) GPS 5) IBB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APPS 2) GCO 3) IEP 4) NKLA 5) AEO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Semis +6.2% 2) Disk Drives +5.2% 3) Computer Hardware +3.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NVDA, SMCI, MOD, ZUO, ELF, MPWR, VRT, NTNX, SNPS, RMBS, ANET, COCO, CRDO, ADBE, GES, PLAB, TOL,RL, MRVL, TER and PLTR
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) IAU 2) TSM 3) APPS 4) CPNG 5) FLEX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVDA 2) ELF 3) SNPS 4) AMD 5) NTNX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BIG)/-1.57
• (BAH)/.94
• (BKE)/.92
• (HIBB)/3.04
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in March.
• Personal Spending for April is estimated to rise +.5% versus unch. in March.
• The PCE Core MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in March.
• The PCE Core YoY for April is estimated to rise +4.6% versus a +4.6% gain in March.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for April is estimated unch. versus unch. in March.
• Advance Goods Trade Balance for April is estimated at -$85.9B versus $84.6B in March.
• Retail Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in March.
• Durable Goods Orders for April is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +3.2% gain in March.
• Durables Ex Transports for April is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in March.
• Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex Air for April is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for May.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking and the UK retail sales report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +5.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.0 -.2
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sector Rising
• 30.5% of Issues Advancing, 67.2% Declining
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 117 New Lows
• 37.3%(-7.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 -3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.6 +2.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,140.9 +2.4%
• 1-Day Vix 13.9 -20.8%
  
• Vix 19.4 -3.3% 
  
• Total Put/Call .79 -23.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 +19.4%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• US, South Korea Start Live-Fire Drills Set to Anger Pyongyang.
• The World’s Oil Map Is Being Redrawn by Rising Russian Flows to Asia.
• Singapore’s Economy Posts Smaller Contraction in First Quarter.
• US Futures Rally on Nvidia; Gold, Yen Edge Up: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Holds Gains as US Stockpile Draw Counters Debt-Deal Tensions.
• McCarthy Signals Debt Deal Optimism as US Put on Credit Watch.
• Any Debt-Limit Deal Still Faces Time-Consuming Hurdles to Avoid Default.
• Nvidia Ignites AI-Related Stock Rally After ‘Blow-Out’ Forecast.
• Bill Ackman Says Icahn ‘Somewhat’ Like Archegos as Stock Plunges Anew. 
• Fed Officials Lean Toward Pause in June, But Not Ready to Stop.
• Former First Republic Employees Face DOJ Probe Over Stock Trades.
• Downtown LA’s Office Distress Shows the Pain Coming for Cities. 
• The Odds of US Going Past Default Date Are 25% and Rising, JPMorgan Says.

Zero Hedge:

• "There's Poop Everywhere": San Francisco's Office District Not Only A Ghost Town, It's Also Covered In Sh*t.
• Withdrawing Your Own Cash? NatWest Bank Wants To Know Why... And See Proof.
• Post-Fukushima Shift: Japan Court Rejects Citizens' Concerns, Paving Way For Nuclear Power Restart.
• Rubino Warns "They're Willing To Burn Down The World To Get What They Want".
• The FBI Has Crossed The Rubicon.
• JP Morgan Bets Big On Carbon Removal.
• Listen: DeSantis Twitter 'Spaces' Presidential Bid Launch With Musk.
• Tesla Plunges 50 Spots To #62 In New Reputable Brands Survey.
• Criminal Justice Disaster.
• "Selling The Rips": Retail Investors Capitulate Just As Stocks Break Out To New 2023 Highs.
• US stocks declined amid debt ceiling fears and after hot UK CPI athough futures were boosted after hours on NVIDIA earnings - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• 'Cat 5' Politics: NC Gov. Declares "State Of Emergency" Over Approaching Democratic System.
• Microsoft Says CCP Hackers Compromised 'Critical' US Infrastructure As DHS Warns Of 'Grave Threat'.
• "Fat and flat" mania.
• House Ethics Committee Concludes Probe Into Rep. Eric Swalwell's Associations With Alleged Chinese Spy.
• Stocks fall on default risk, yields rise on hot UK CPI and hawkish Waller - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Nvidia Explodes Higher To New All Time High On Blowout Earnings; Guides 50% Above Estimates.

Wall Street Journal:

• Debt-Ceiling Fight Comes Down to Spending Limits.
• A Chicago Self-Destruction Plan. The new mayor’s allies lay out their agenda: ‘First We Get the Money.’
• ‘I Came to Kill the Banks.’ Meme-Stock Traders Find a New Passion.
• How Airlines Are Trying to Prevent Another Summer Travel Nightmare.
• Journalists Increasingly Face Legal Threats, Say Press-Freedom Advocates.
• Baby-Formula Makers Face FTC Probe for Collusion.
• Special House Panel Takes Aim at China.
• How to Prepare Every Part of Your Life for a Recession.
• These Aren’t Tommy Lasorda’s Dodgers. Why would the team honor a group that mocks Catholics? 

CNBC.com:

• Nvidia shares spike 26% on huge forecast beat driven by A.I. chip demand.
• American Eagle Outfitters shares plunge as retailer lowers forecast.
• Fitch puts United States’ AAA rating on negative watch, citing debt ceiling fight.
• Snowflake shares plunge 12% on guidance miss, acquisition of Neeva.
• Fed officials less confident on the need for more rate hikes, minutes show.
• Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on business groups. 
• Bitcoin sinks to $26,000, and OFAC sanctions crypto wallets tied to North Korea: CNBC Crypto World.

MarketWatch:

• Apple could be gearing up for a ‘game-changing’ event
• Nvidia barrels toward rare $1 trillion valuation after putting a dollar figure on AI boost
• McCarthy addresses debt-ceiling angst: ‘I would not, if I was in the markets, be afraid of anything’
• Fitch puts U.S. Triple-A credit ratings on rating watch negative due to ‘brinkmanship’ over debt ceiling

Newsmax:

• Rep. Meuser: Dems Want 'Blank Check' on Spending.
• Megyn Kelly: Fox 'Terrified' of Losing Tucker Viewers.
• Steve Forbes: Massive Debt Crippling Economy.

Fox News:

• DeSantis launches presidential campaign with 'Great American Comeback' video.
• Music legend Tina Turner dead at the age of 83.
• Target is starting to pay the price for woke merchandise that has sparked outrage.
• Microsoft says US critical infrastructure targeted in attack from China.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Update on Alleged “White Supremacist” Who Crashed U-Haul into White House Barrier: Sai Kandula Bought His Nazi Flag Online, Supports Eugenics and One World Order, and IS NOT A US CITIZEN.
• Reverend Franklin Graham Issues Warning to America: “The Storm is Coming…Every Demon in Hell Has Been Turned Loose”.
• IRS Opened Investigation Into Journalist Matt Taibbi on Christmas Eve Weeks After He Dropped “Twitter Files” Documents.
• JUST IN: Microsoft Warns Chinese Hackers Compromised Critical US Infrastructure with Focus on Gathering Intelligence.
• MUST READ: America First Legal Uncovers Vast Censorship Network Funded by State Department, Bill Gates, George Soros, and Others – That Targeted, Censored and Discredited Independent Media Outlets Who Were Challenging Official Narrative.
• Fists and Weaves Fly in Massive Brawl at Chicago O’Hare Airport (VIDEO).
• North Face Unveils New Ad Featuring Drag Queen For Pride Month (VIDEO).
• Shady Black Lives Matter Org Headed to Total Bankruptcy – Still Giving Seven Figure Salaries to Board Members and Co-Founder’s Family,
• COVID-Vaccine Injured Americans File Lawsuit Against Biden Regime Over Censorship.

 The Epoch Times: 

• China Is Both Supplier and Saboteur of America’s Electric Grid, Experts Say.
• House China Panel Calls for US to Surge Missiles, Troops to Taiwan.

Twitter:

• @USBurning - LA Dodgers Slammed Over Pride Night Invitation to LGBT Group that Performed Stripper Pole Christ Crucifixion Routine.
• @Risemelbourne - USA The LGBTIQA+ Propaganda goes up a notch , now at Insane Levels.... Check out The Target(TGT) Stores kid's range. This is getting out of hand. (video) USA - The Christian Mocking sets a new low. Religious or not, you'll agree, this is now going way too far....This is disrespectful to say the least. (video)
• @Breaking911 - REPORTER: "On the debt ceiling, you used words like 'catastrophic' & 'devastating' but the President again is going to Camp David this weekend and then going to Delaware. If the situation is so dire, why is the President leaving town?" KJP: "I already answered that question." (video)
•  @FinanceLancelot - CDS on treasuries is at a height we've never seen before, while Nasdaq calls are the highest in 8 years. What happens to the liquidity in risk assets when you suddenly take the fear out of safe assets by passing the debt ceiling? (graph)
• @RobinBrooks - The resilience of German manufacturing in 2022 looks increasingly like a house of cards. New export orders in May 2023 fell back near their low in October 2022, so the recovery in manufacturing looks precarious. As we have kept saying, Europe's energy shock is far from over... (graph)
• @songpinganq - In China, facial recognition and ID & background check are mandatory for seeking an employment. If you are being blacklisted by Social Credit System, you can't get a decent job —— you can only do some low-paid or part time jobs. (video) A Digital Leprosy In Reality. A New Low In Evil. China's Wechat tell users whether they are within a 500-meter radius of someone, who are on the 𝘽𝙡𝙖𝙘𝙠𝙡𝙞𝙨𝙩 of social credit system. This alerts who you may want to 'stay away' from, lest your social credit score goes down! (video)
  
• @C_Barraud - Money Supply M2 fell 4.6% YoY in April, the largest decline since data are recorded (1959) (graph).
• @theinformantofc - #SanFrancisco is a disaster. No nation should have cities like this. (video)
  
• @OliLondonTV - The Satanic designer behind Target’s(TGT) Pride Collection has issued a statement defending his designs which include sweaters emblazoned with an image of Baphomet and the caption ‘Satan Respects Pronouns.’ Designer Abprallen says he has “no intention to stop what I’m doing.” (pics) Drag group who mock Christianity have been reinvited to the LA Dodgers Pride Night after previously being uninvited for causing offense to Catholics. (pics)
• @GRDecter - Buying now costs 45% more than renting on a monthly basis. And that's BEFORE putting down 20% to buy the house. How can the average American afford to buy? (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 961,352 Reports(+1,715 from prior week) Through May 12th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 126.5 +1.75 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 69.25 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.9 USD/Metric Tonne +1.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.05 -.08%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.8 +.73%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.08 -8.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -1.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%.

• S&P 500 futures +.37%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.37%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.