Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (NIO)/-2.80

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

• None of note

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China CPI report and the (DASTY) capital markets day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -5.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.1 -.3
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 43.6% of Issues Advancing, 53.8% Declining
• 71 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 51.2%(-1.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 +1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.7 -1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,071.8 +.64%
• 1-Day Vix 10.1 -8.3%
  
• Vix 13.6 -2.2% 
  
• Total Put/Call .80 -8.1%
• TRIN/Arms 1.06 +53.6%
  

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.25 +2.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 63.0 +1.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.2 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.8 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 -8.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.6 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.16%.

• S&P 500 futures +.02%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by tech and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on US Policy-Induced Stagflation Fears, Fed "Higher for Longer" Worries, Diminishing FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Tech/Pharma Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.9 -.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .42%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.5 +2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 1575 +.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.67 +1.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.8 -2.5% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +18.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .75 -18.5%

• NYSE Arms .91 +9.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.80 -+61%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 385.99 -1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 409.0 +11.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.55 +.01% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 296.56 -1.6%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 183.0 basis points +5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 117.4 +.32%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 221.8 -2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.07 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 20.75 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 23.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +1.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 170.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 729.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 89.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.2 -2.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.28% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 109.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.3 euros/megawatt-hour  +5.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 26.9 -1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -88.5 -.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.6 -5.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) -3.4% +.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.20 -.04:  Growth Rate +2.9% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.9% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 206.57 -.06: Growth Rate +35.7% -.1 percentage point, P/E 35.6 -.6
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.28 +11.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -77.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.22% +26.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.71% unch.: CPI YoY +4.13% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +5.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for July 26th FOMC meeting: 51.8%(-.8 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th meeting: 48.%(-.2 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +102 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -71 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my utility/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FCEL)/-.08
• (SIG)/1.49
• (TTC)/1.52
  

After the Close: 

• (DOCU)/.56
• (MTN)/8.81
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 235K versus 232K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1802K versus 1795K prior.
  

10:00 am EST

• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for April is estimated to rise +.9% versus a -2.1% decline in March.

12:00 pm EST

• Household Change in Net Worth for 1Q.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone GDP report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (PYPL) mgmt. meeting, (TD) investor day and the (NVS) capital markets day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +14.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.4 -.3
  
• 6 Sectors Declining, 5 Sectors Rising
• 63.2% of Issues Advancing, 34.0% Declining
• 143 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 51.3%(+4.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 +3.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.2 +2.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,014.5 -1.6%
• 1-Day Vix 10.0 -2.6%
  
• Vix 14.1 +1.3% 
  
• Total Put/Call .74 -19.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.02 -22.9%