Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zero Hedge:
TheGatewayPundit.com:
The Epoch Times:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.75 -.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.2 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 63.7 +1.0%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .10 -2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.6 +.18%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.14%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.02%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on Fed Pause, Loosening US Financial Conditions, FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.5 -.7%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.09%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 62.4 +.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 159.1 +.1%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.3 -.64%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.0 -2.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 111.0 -24.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .75 -5.1%
  • NYSE Arms 1.07 +72.6%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.7 +.68%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 376.71 +.79%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 404.0 -15.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.67 +1.1% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 290.25 +.89%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 164.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 112.4 -.84%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 213.9 -.18%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.6 +.85%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 21.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 31.5 basis points -2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -2.75 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 164.0 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 729.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 84.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 45.23 +.31%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.22% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 38.3 euros/megawatt-hour  +6.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 19.5 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -91.2 -1.4 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 10.0 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(499 of 500 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 230.50 -.09:  Growth Rate +3.1% unch., P/E 19.0 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) -2.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 207.93 +.19: Growth Rate +36.6% +.1 percentage point, P/E 37.1 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .14 +10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.10 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -92.5 basis points (2s/10s) -6.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.20% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 +1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 57.6%(-.7 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 54.2%(+4.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +28 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -23 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades:  Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -1.5%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers -5.1% 2) Regional Banks -2.8% 3) Alt Energy -2.6%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • RIVN, EDIT, FLYW, IEP, PGR, CSWC, ITOS, MAG, MO, EVH, OMF, FLNC, PGR, MO, MAG, ITOS, EDIT, CI, STAA, CWT, EVH, FLNC, PETS, MRNS, OMF, PAX, ACLS, LZ, CLFD, PLAY, CSTL, MOH, CELH, FVRR, DNUT, ONTO, DIN, GME, XPRO, NSP, CVS, TERN, NPWR, SNCY, ELV, CFLT, UNH, CNC, PI, CNK, MIRM, KURA, RDNT, AFRM, TSVT, LOGI, AGL, HUM and SDA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ADM 2) HUM 3) MVIS 4) JETS 5) IYR
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) HUM 2) TIO 3) MULN 4) MVIS 5) AFRM
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.3%
Sector Outperformers:
  • Medical Equipment +1.8% 2) Road & Rail +1.6% 3) Airlines +1.2%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VERA, COHR, AXSM, LITE, U, MITK, SYK, UHS, ORCL, NVRO, TGT, SGRY and THC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) AIG 2) MTTR 3) NEXT 4) HUM 5) ISRG
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) COHR 2) NEXT 3) NKLA 4) INOD 5) IPGP

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (JBL)/1.87
  • (KR)/1.46
After the Close: 
  • (ADBE)/3.79
Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for May is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in April.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for May is estimated to fall -.5% versus a +.4% gain in April.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in April.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +.2% gain in April. 
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to fall to 245K versus 261K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1768K versus 1757K prior.
  • Empire Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to -15.1 versus -31.8 in May.
  • The Philly Fed Business Outlook for June is estimated to fall to -14.0 versus a -10.4 reading in May.

9:15 am EST

  • Industrial Production MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.5% gain in April.
  • Capacity Utilization for May is estimated at 79.7% versus 79.7% in April.
  • Manufacturing Production for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a +1.0% gain in April.

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a -.1% decline in March.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for April.

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The ECB decision, China retail sales report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (UIS) investor day, (BRKR) investor day and the RBC Mining/Materials Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • NYSE Volume Running -6.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +2.1
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 59.0% of Issues Advancing, 37.8% Declining
  • 97 New 52-Week Highs, 5 New Lows
  • 53.5%(+2.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +2.0
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 63.6 +2.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,339.0 +.02%
  • 1-Day Vix 16.5 -4.5%
  • Vix 14.4 -1.7% 
  • Total Put/Call .73 -7.6%
  • TRIN/Arms .86 +38.7%