Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -13.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.9 -1.7
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 64.0% of Issues Advancing, 32.7% Declining
• 72 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 53.1%(+2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 +2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 64.7 +2.3%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,343.4 -.52%
• 1-Day Vix 9.7 -36.5%
  
• Vix 13.6 -.22% 
  
• Total Put/Call .72 -16.3%
• TRIN/Arms .62 -28.4%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:  

• Macron Pushes for an End to Looting, Riots Testing His Authority.
• French Riots Begin to Abate Even as Economic Costs Mount.
• China’s Economic Woes Are Multiplying — and Xi Jinping Has No Easy Fix. 
• Australia’s Coal Exports by Volume Set to Rise on Asian Demand.
• Yellen Heads to China This Week, Furthering US Move to Mend Ties.
• Biden to Shore Up NATO Allies Following Failed Mutiny in Russia.
• UK Police Have New Expanded Powers to Crack Down on Protests.
• China Is Buying Gas Like There’s Still an Energy Crisis. 
• A $2 Trillion Inflation-Linked Debt Headache Arrives.
• Banks Face Growing Capital Scrutiny With Stress Tests Up First.
• Pimco Prepares for ‘Harder Landing’ for Global Economy: FT. 
• Asian Shares Advance on the Back of US Stock Rally: Markets Wrap. 
• Oil Steadies After Record Losing Run as Traders Eye Second Half.
• It’s Getting a Lot Harder to Chase the Stock Rally From Here On.
• AI Bubble, Fed Hike Fears Have Investors Fleeing Growth Stocks.
• Stock Market Rally That Shocked Everyone Is Broadening Beyond Tech.
• US Jobs Seen Growing in Tune With Resilient Economy.
• Will AI Take My Job? What Investors Are Discussing at Summer Parties.
• LA-Area Hotel Workers Stage Walkout as Holiday Weekend Kicks Off.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.
• Charting the Global Economy: US Inflation Cools, Europe’s Rises.

Zero Hedge:

• White House Wants To Block Sunlight To Save Planet From 'Global Warming'.
• 30 People Shot, 2 Dead As Block Party In Baltimore Turns Into 'War Zone'
• Righting This Cacophony Of Wrongs.
• Israel Buys 25 More Lockheed F-35 Stealth Jets In $3 Billion Deal.
• The Affirmative Aftermath: Schools Now Insist That Race Had A Major Impact In Admissions.
• Dalio: Why The World Is On The Brink Of Great Disorder.
• "I Don't Think We'll Ever Get To The 2024 Election", Col. Douglas Macgregor (Ret) Warns.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• California Teachers' Union Threatens Local School Board With Legal Action Over Flag Policy.
• USSC Chief Justice Roberts Slams 'Misleading' Liberal Justices Over 'Disturbing' Activist Opinions.
• TME Weekend: 9 things you might have missed.
• No, Joe, There Is No Such Thing As A "Fair Share" Of Taxes.
• "Credit Decompression Ahead": Junk-Rated Companies Face 80% Surge In Interest Expense In Next 18 Months.
• Do Not Forget 1980, Inflation Is Not Gone.
• Musk's Tweet-Limiting Move Is To Prevent The Completion Of The "AI-Censorship-Death-Star".
• France In Crisis For Fifth Night As Violence Spreads To Neighboring Countries.
• Mr. Market Plays 'Concentration'.
• The Make-Or-Break Fork In The Road Ahead.
• Nationwide UPS Strike Averted In Last Minute Talks.
• New Research Paper: mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Are Gene Therapy Products.
• How Big Is The Market For Crude Oil?
• Are UFO Sightings Taking Off Again?
• Essential Reading For The Dissident, The Disenfranchised, & The Disillusioned.
• Government Agents Routinely Entering Private Land Without Warrants.
• US Releases Internal Review Of Botched, Disastrous Afghan Withdrawal .
• Goldman: These Are The Key Narratives That Defined The First Half, And Will Define H2.
• 'Godfather Of AI' Speaks Out: AI Capable Of Reason, May Seek Control.
• Raytheon Calls In Retirees To Help Produce Stinger Missiles.
• Study Finds Xanax, Valium Associated With Brain Injury, Suicide. 
• IRS Sends Special Notice To Taxpayers In Eight States.
• "The Hypocrisy Is Stunning": Biden Displays Stunning Denial Psychosis Over Student Loans.
• CBDCs With Expiration Dates, Restrictions Could Target Social Policies, Economist Tells WEF.
• Hartnett Wraps Up The First Half Of 2023 In 20 Fascinating Financial Facts.
• French Police Say "We're At War With Vermin" As Nationwide Riots Spread Like Cancer.
• IEA’s Net Zero Dream Was Just Debunked As A Nightmare.
• "Believe Their Lies Or Pay The Consequences" - Tucker Carlson Blasts Trans Ideology As "Just Another Religious War".
• Some Pfizer Vaccine Batches In The EU Were Placebos, Say Scientists.
• "The EU Is On The Brink Of Bankrutpcy" Says Hungary's Orbán At EU Summit.
• A State Of Martial Law: America Is A Military Dictatorship Disguised As A Democracy.
• These Industries Are Most 'At Risk' For AI Automation.
• Florida Issues Statewide Emergency Malaria Alert.
• The Sad State Of American Journalism.
• Beijing And Shanghai Record Largest Decline In Existing Home Prices.
• 40% Of Californians Are Considering Moving To Another State Due To Cost Of Living.
• New York City Now Sheltering More Illegal Immigrants Than Homeless Citizens: Deputy Mayor.
• California's Reparations Task Force Demands Action, Presents 1,100-Page Final Report To Governor, Legislature.
• Brazil's 'Donald Trump' Banned From Public Office For 8 Years.
• Union Fights Signal Danger Ahead For Bidenomics.
• Fed F**kery Turns $65 Billion Bank Deposit Outflow Into $48 Billion Inflow.
• The Tide Is Turning On Transgender Tolerance.
• Stocks soar, yields and Dollar fall after cool core PCE on month-end - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Nasdaq Soars To Best H1 In 40 Years; Yield Curve Crashes To 'Most Inverted' Ever.

Wall Street Journal:

• Is Your Company’s DEI Program Lawful? The Supreme Court’s ruling against affirmative action has implications beyond the ivory tower.
• Student Borrowers Must Now Pay After Three-Year Reprieve.
• Putin’s Corporate Takeover of Wagner Has Begun.
• Oil Market Bets Against Saudi Hopes for Rebound.
• Investors Spurn Dividend-Paying Stocks as AI Booms.
• Mysteriously Financed Group Could Upend Biden-Trump Rematch.
• Leveraged-Loan Logjam Eases After Banks Unload Tens of Billions of Debt.
• The European Hot Spots Struggling With Tourist Masses.
• Behind French Riots Lie Years of Anger Over Police Conduct.
• Brazil Worries It Has Become a Haven for Russian Spies Infiltrating the West.
• Keeping Minneapolis Safe Is About to Get Much Harder. A federal consent decree will make policing more difficult and expensive without reducing crime.
• Recent Deals Fail to Spark Lackluster IPO Market.
• Tyson Foods to Drop ‘No Antibiotics Ever’ Label on Some Chicken Products.
• Why Your Flight Cancelation or Delay Is Inevitable.

Barron's:

• Had bullish commentary on (ROK), (EQIX), (DLR) and (FR).
• Had bearish commentary on (ATVI).

CNBC:

• Tesla reported 466,140 deliveries for Q2, and production of 479,700 vehicles.
• The 10 best U.S. cities for digital nomads—New York and LA didn’t make the cut.
• 3 signs you’re gaslighting yourself with ‘toxic gratitude’.
• United gives 30,000 frequent flyer miles to travelers hit by flight delays, CEO says schedule cuts needed.
• Supreme Court strikes down Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan.
• TipRanks reveals the top 10 Wall Street basic materials sector analysts.
• West Coast port workers in Canada officially begin strike. 
• With just 8% of new vehicles under $30,000, ‘it’s the least affordable car market in modern history’.

MarketWatch.com:

• Recession canceled? U.S. stock market ‘pretty frothy’ after S&P 500’s strongest first half since 2019.
• The Biden administration has a new strategy for student-loan forgiveness — but it risks meeting the same fate.
• Elon Musk announces new daily Twitter limitations as thousands of users report problems accessing site.  
• Stocks look overvalued right now. Just don’t call it a market bubble.

NewsMax:

• Rep. Biggs: Bidens Biggest 'Political Corruption Scandal' in US History.
• Blaine Holt: Report on Afghanistan 'Terrible'.
• Sen. Mark Warner: AI Has 'Scary' Potential Outcomes.
• Trump Vows: 'Now the Gloves Are Off' Against Biden, His 'Thugs'.

Fox News:

• One of largest Christian churches in US departs Southern Baptists after controversial ban.
• AOC proposes ways to limit power of SCOTUS justices after landmark decisions.
• Anheuser-Busch contractor forced to shut down, lay off hundreds amid controversy: 'No longer needed'.
  

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Garland Favorito from VoterGA Tells Corrupt Secretary of State Raffensperger to Either Get Rid of Voting Machines or Unseal All Ballots Counted in the State.
• Controversial Companies BlackRock and JPMorgan to Collaborate with Ukrainian Government Establish Reconstruction Bank for Massive Private Investment.
• France Has Fallen: Migrant Mob Torch Mayor’s Home, Wife and Kids Injured Escaping.
• A Shocking Analysis of Election Night Reporting and the Companies that Manufacture Election Results. 
• Joe Biden’s White House Payroll at Historic Highs- 524 Employees at a Taxpayer Cost of $52+ Million.
• Left Dealt Another Blow as Majority of Americans Approve of SCOTUS Affirmative Action Decision: Poll.
• Tragic News: Actress Succumbs to Assisted Suicide Following Covid-19 Booster Injuries.
• Biden Vows to Rein In ‘Privilege’ in Colleges, But Here’s What He Did for His Granddaughter.
• New York Quietly Ends $250 Million Discriminatory Vaccine Passport Mobile App, Citing Reduced Demand.
• It Begins: France to Shut Down Internet in “Certain” Neighborhoods to Prevent Use of Social Media to Organize Violence.
• Residents Push Back Against SMART City Technology in San Diego.
• Joe Biden Disowns His Beautiful 4-Year-Old Granddaughter: White House Aides Told Joe Biden Has Six, Not Seven, Grandchildren.
• Doctors Group Files Federal Lawsuit Against HHS and FDA Over Unlawful Attempt to Ban Ivermectin for COVID Treatment.
• Several US Cities Are Replacing July 4th Fireworks With Drone Light Shows Due to ‘Environmental Concerns’.
• IT WAS HUUGE! Trump Rally Estimated at 50,000 Supporters in Pickens, SC – “They Had to Shut the Town Down” (VIDEO).
• Another Bus of Illegals From Texas Arrives in Sanctuary City of L.A.
• Illinois to Allow Noncitizens Access to Standard Driver’s License Regardless of Immigration Status.
• World Economic Forum Concludes “Annual Meeting of the New Champions” in China with Accelerated Plans Toward Global Social Credit and Digital Surveillance.
• REPORT: Tax Revenue is Plummeting in Democrat Strongholds Like California and New York.
• France Has Fallen: 17-year-old “Victim” was Gangbanger with 15-Count Rap Sheet and History of Running Police Stops.
• 30 Shot in Baltimore at Block Party Early Sunday Morning.

The Epoch Times:

• IN-DEPTH: US Takes First Step to Counter China’s New Opium War.
• ANALYSIS: China’s Economy Stuck in Deeper Crisis Due to More State Interventions.

Twitter:

• @WallStreetSilv - Summary of the fifth nights of riots in France: - 871 fires on public roads - 577 burned vehicles - 74 burned buildings - 719 people arrested - 45 police officers and gendarmes injured.
• @JackPosobiec - SHOCKING: Race rioters chant ‘Allahu Akbar’ as they torch France, 719 arrested.
• @MrAndyNgo - #FranceRiots: The Croix-Blanche shopping center in the Paris banlieue (suburb) of Mée-sur-Seine was completely destroyed in the race riots. (video)
• @RealMacReport - Special forces have been finally deployed on the streets of Paris. (video)
• @songpinganq - By law, Chinese citizens must install the gov't spyware - ''anti-fraud'' app. If it detects you trying to install apps gov't disapproved such as Twitter or cryptocurrency, immediately an alarm sends to police. Then police will come for you and freeze your bank account!! (video)
• @richardursomd - Severe baby myocarditis!! I wonder why??
• @LaraLogan - How can this be legal? It certainly is not right.
• @CNBC - Why the electric vehicle boom could put a major strain on the U.S. power grid.
• @backtolife_2023 - Lab-grown meat could have a worse carbon footprint than animal agriculture, UC Davis study says Source: KCRA 3 (YouTube)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 966,895 Reports(+1,278 from prior week) Through June 16, 2023.
  

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.5 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 60.25 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.5 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.5 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 64.7 +2.3%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -3.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.4 unch. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%.
• S&P 500 futures -.03%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.01%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• Construction Spending for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.2% gain in April.
  

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for June is estimated to rise to 47.2 versus 46.9 in May.
• ISM Prices Paid for June is estimated to fall to 44.0 versus 44.2 in May.
  

Afternoon

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for June is estimated to rise to 15.3M versus 15.05M in May.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China PMI report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 119.0 -.5 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 62.0 -.25 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 113.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.56%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.7 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.5 +1.1%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .25 +12.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 +.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%.

• S&P 500 futures -.21%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.42%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Acceleration Hopes, Loosening US Financial Conditions, FANG+ Stock Frenzy, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -4.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .49%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.2 +2.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.0 +.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.8 -.45%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.2 -6.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 120.0 -2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .81 -8.0%

• NYSE Arms .86 -3.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.4 -2.77%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 376.7 -3.2%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 363.0 +13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.9 -2.2% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 2985.5 -.87%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 163.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 120.9 +2.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 217.6 -2.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 26.3 +.19%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 23.75 basis points +5.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 23.0 basis points -2.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.5 -.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 161.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 721.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 81.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.75 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.27% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour  +7.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 40.8 +16.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -138.4 +1.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.3 -.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 500 reporting) +13.8% -.9 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 231.56 +.03:  Growth Rate +3.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 18.8 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.24% -.1 percentage point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 212.88 +.06: Growth Rate +41.1% +1.3 percentage points, P/E 35.4 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .28 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -4.14 +12.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -99.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +1.77% -18.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.22% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 20th FOMC meeting: 67.2%(-.4 percentage point) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for  Nov. 1st meeting: 58.4%(-4.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +350 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +194 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/utility/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (GIS)/1.07
  

After the Close: 

• (BB)/-.06
• (FUL)/1.04
• (MU)/-1.61
• (FIZZ)/.38
• (WOR)/1.90
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• Advance Good Trade Balance for May is estimated at -$93.8B versus -$96.8B in April.
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for May is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in April.
• Retail Inventories MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,266,430 barrels versus a -3,831,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +59,860 barrels versus a +479,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +240,430 barrels versus a +434,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.23% versus a -.6% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Italian PPI report, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (LOW) fireside chat, (AGCO) tech event and the (CP) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST