Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Less Dovish Fed "Priced In" Hopes, Technical Buying, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.2 -.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .83%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 168.6 +.79%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.18 +.33%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 24.0 -4.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 +13.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .87 -26.3%

• NYSE Arms .78 +16.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.31 -.49%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 337.41 -.97%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 357.0 -10.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.2 +.68% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 266.87 +1.52%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.7 +2.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 220.8 -.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.6 -.65%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.5 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.75 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 184.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 748.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 70.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.3 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.44% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.77%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.78 euros/megawatt-hour +12.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 72.4 -5.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -54.6 +8.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(472 of 500 reporting) -7.3%  +.2 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.76 -.16:  Growth Rate +6.9% -.2 percentage point, P/E 18.6 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.10% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +17.0% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 233.59 +.06: Growth Rate +42.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.7 +.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.17 -8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -65.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.76% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.82% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 57.8%(-6.1 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 56.0%(-3.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +240 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -6 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +82 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.6% 2) Regional Banks -1.1% 3) REITs -1.1%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HE and NSSC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MCHI 2) COTY 3) NOVA 4) M 5) SPLK
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NSSC 2) NKLA 3) AMC 4) IBRX 5) BTAI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.2%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Cyber Security +2.5% 2) Semis +2.2% 3) Biotech +1.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AAOI, S, PANW, ESTE, INBX, MRNA, NVDA, LMB, TSLA, SCU, VMW, RCKT, ZS, EBIX, SG, AMLX, REGN, AMAT and IDYA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PR 2) MSOS 3) DBI 4) DKS 5) PANW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PANW 2) SKLZ 3) SOPA 4) TIRX 5) AAOI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BIDU)/16.8
• (BJ)/.90
• (CSIQ)/1.52
• (COTY)/.02
• (DKS)/3.81

After the Close: 

• (TOL)/2.84
• (LOW)/4.47
• (MDT)/1.11
• (M)/.14
• (SCSC)/.75
• (URBN)/.89
• (LZB)/.55
  

Economic Releases   

8:30 am EST

• Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity for Aug.

10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for July is estimated to fall to 4.15M versus 4.16M in June.
• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for Aug. is estimated to fall to -10 versus -9 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bowman speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Eurozone Current Account report, weekly US retail sales reports and the Needham Semi/SemiCap Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -1.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.5 +.9
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 26.1% of Issues Advancing, 73.9% Declining
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 65 New Lows
• 45.2%(-.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 33.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.5 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,235.3 +1.0%
• 1-Day Vix 12.6 -21.9%
  
• Vix 18.0 +3.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 -22.0%
• TRIN/Arms .85 +26.9%
  

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Ukraine to Get F-16s from NATO Allies, With Denmark Pledging 19.
• Taiwan’s Biggest Financial Firm Braces for Deeper China Turmoil.
• China Local Governments to Sell $206 Billion of Financing Debt.
• China Urges More Loans, Debt Risk Reduction as Woes Compound.
• China’s Low Births, Weaker Growth Cut Infant Formula Demand, Says A2.
• UK Property Sellers Cut Asking Prices at Sharpest Pace This Year.
• Risk of Debt Crisis Return Seen in Korea on Credit Union Woes.
• A Global Stock Trader’s Guide to Navigating Food Inflation. 
• Germany’s Lindner Says Debt Will Be Cut, Rejects Taxation Rumors.
• Italy Set to Back Former Draghi Ally Franco for ECB Post.
• The Case for Investing in Emerging Markets Is Fading in August.
• Wildfire on Tenerife Was Started Deliberately, Official Says. 
• Dollar Edges Lower; Asian Stock Futures Mixed: Markets Wrap.
• Severe Weather Set to Boost US Disaster Funding Needs, FEMA Says. 
• Diesel Is Pricing a Scarcity With Winter Market Looming Large.
• Bruised Stocks Face Week Full of Tests, From Nvidia to Powell. 
• Fed Can’t Celebrate Yet as Investors Expect Rates, Inflation to Remain Elevated.
• Borrowers With $39 Billion in Student Loans Finally See Relief.
• Bond Bulls at JPMorgan, Allianz Double Down on Bet Gone Bad.
• Crypto Startup Aims to Tokenize Stocks by Playing by the Rules.
• Bond Investors Brace for Supply Freight Train Before Fed Confab.
• All Eyes on Fed Chief Powell in Jackson Hole.
• Trump Supporters Brush Off Atlanta Indictment in Pre-Debate Poll.
• Tracking Hurricane Hilary’s Latest Path.
• Palo Alto Networks Surges After Billings Outlook Beats Estimates.

Zero Hedge:

• Is This The Real Reason "Eris" Cases Are Spiking?
• Dependency On The State Is The Core Of The Takeover Plot Of Humanity.
• "Pathetic, ...Pessimistic": Non-White Focus Group Hammers Biden On Economy, Crime, Border.
• Original Snow White Director's Son Slams Disney's 2024 Remake, 'Insulting,' 'Disgrace'.
• Hawaii State Government Attempts Information Blackout On Maui Fire - Refuses Media Access.
• Uniparty's Plan To Save "Our Democracy" Unfolds.
• Progressive Insurance Sued Over 'Patently Unlawful' Racism For $25K Black-Only Business Grants. 
• EPA Finds Toxic 'Forever Chemicals' In Water Systems Across The US.
• These Are The Dirtiest Cities In America.
• FDA 'Clarifies' That Ivermectin Remains Unapproved For COVID-19 But Docs Can Prescribe.
• China Rapidly Building Airstrip On Disputed Island Close To Vietnam.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Milei Is Not Argentina's Problem, Socialism Is...
• Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Prepping "Game Plan" For If U.S. Takes "Far Right, Authoritarian Shift"
• Ford CEO Admits 'Reality Check' When He Took Electric F-150 Truck On Road Trip.
• What Ayn Rand Got Right.
• "I Have A Very Bad Feeling About This...".
• Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics.
• 'Kaputnik' - Russia's First Moon-Landing Mission In 50 Years Ends In Disaster; India's Mission Remains On Schedule.
• Navigating The Growing 'Liquidity Hole'.
• These Are The World's Biggest Wine Producers, By Country.
• Crying China.
• TME Weekend: Tail risks.
• Scholz Says Germany Will 'Never' Send Troops To Ukraine As Public Turns Against Escalation.
• Rare Earth Elements And National Security: Reclaiming US Control Amid China's Monopoly.
• These Are The World's Largest Cities By Population.
• Understanding The Parasitic Cooperation Between Globalists And Leftists.
• The 'Brrr' Is Coming Back.
• Brace Yourselves, Because What They Have Planned Is Going To Absolutely Devastate The US Economy.
• Visualizing $156 Trillion In US Assets, By Generation.
• Is There Meat Glue In Your Food?
• "Quiet" Thrusters For 'Flying Cars' Comes Out Of Stealth Development.
• These Are The Most Dangerous Cities In The US.
• SpaceX Starship Launch Nears After Coast Guard Warns Of "Rocket Activity".
• Transgender Powerlifter Smashes Women's World Record By More Than 440 Pounds.
• Hartnett: "Shocking. Positively Shocking".
• "Towns Could Get Cut Off": Hurricane Hilary Threatening "Catastrophic" Flooding Across California.
• "America Is Under Attack": Georgia Senator Demands Special Session To Investigate, Possibly Impeach Fani Willis.
• "Leave Neutrality Behind": Soros-Backed UT Austin Initiative Embraces Advocacy Journalism.
• These Are America's Most Affordable States To Live In This Year.
• "Trump Was Right": Jake Tapper Admits Biden Lied About Hunter 'Making Fortune In Ukraine, China, Moscow'.
• Most Intensive Ivermectin Use Had 74% Reduction In Excess Deaths In Peru: New Study.
• Trump Can Prove It.
• Bad Government, Not Climate To Blame For Maui Wildfire Disaster. 
• Cali DMV Forces Cruise To Cut Robotaxi Fleet In Half After Several "Concerning Incidents".
• Buying Second-Hand Is Gaining Popularity.
• Study On 'COVID-19 Misinformation' Rife With Misinformation: Critics.
• 'Rich Men North of Richmond' Artist Turns Down $8 Million From Stunned Music Execs, Says "Nothing Special About Me" .
• Why NATO Has Become An Enemy Of Peace And Security Around The World.
• Mercedes, BMW Sever Russian Dealers From Diagnostic Software.
• Elite Pedophilia And The Propaganda Machine.
• These Are The World's Ten Busiest Airports.
• After Years In The Wilderness, Conservative Christian Education Is Being Born Again Post-Pandemic.
• Researchers Discover Concerning Cancer Trend In Young Adults.
• Total Ukraine War Troop Deaths, Injuries Approaching 500,000: US Officials. 
• Another One? Boeing Dreamliner Pilot Suffers "Fatal Cardiac Arrest" Shortly After Takeoff.
• China's Housing Slump Far Worse Than Reported; Half Of State-Owned Builders Warn Of "Widespread" Losses.
• Growing Warnings: Biden Could Get Scorched By Green Dependency On Red China.
• Watch: Alarming Video Shows Chinese Troops Rehearsing For Taiwan Invasion. 
• What If There Had Been No COVID Coup?
• The Right Can't Beat The Left At Its Own Game. 
• Inside YouTube's New "Medical Misinformation Policy".
• Large Bank Loan Volumes Shrank Last Week As Deposit Outflows Re-Accelerated.
• "Expect Disorder Like You've Never Imagined" - Kunstler Warns Of 'Bumpy Ride' Ahead.
• Stocks mixed and bonds bid as eyes turn to Jackson Hole - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Worst Week For Stocks Since Banking Crisis; Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Battered.
  

Wall Street Journal:

• In Ukraine, Lack of Achievable Goals Portends Endless War.
• From an Italian Monastery to an Esports Lounge, Colleges Spend Big With Little Pushback.
• China’s 40-Year Boom Has Ended. What Comes Next?
• Decriminalizing Drugs in Seattle. The City Council thwarts prosecutions of public drug use.
• Peter Huntsman Is a CEO Who Doesn’t Equivocate About Climate.
  Why do so many corporate leaders accept the false premises of global warming catastrophism? 
• The Man at the Center of the Battle to Ban TikTok.
• Big Treasury Rout Lures Fresh Buyers.
• Return to Era of Historically Low Rates Is in Doubt.
• How to Get Rich and Famous From a Stock Market Crash.
• Florida Teachers Are on Edge Over History and Gender-Identity Policies.
• Is China’s Data Manipulated, or Flawed? Maybe Both.

CNBC:

• Google’s plan to purge inactive accounts isn’t sitting well with some users.
• 3 trends are dividing restaurant companies into winners and losers
• Startups are investing millions to make drugs and semiconductors in space
• The iPhone 15 could get one of the biggest upgrades in years: A new charging port
• Starbucks told to pay $2.7 million more to ex-manager awarded $25.6 million over firing
• Top Wall Street analysts pound the table on these 5 stocks.
• Stellantis has discussed moving pickup truck production from the U.S. to Mexico, union leader says. 

MarketWatch.com:

• Opinion: Outlook for China’s property sector is grim, but it isn’t the only drag on its economy. 
• Fears of ‘domino effect of contagion’ amid China’s property woes could bring down U.S. Treasury yields from 16-year high.
• Rising yields put S&P 500 on pace for biggest monthly loss of 2023 as investors brace for Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech
• Will August stock-market stumble turn into a rout? Here’s what to watch, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.
• Opinion: Bears are knocking at the door but bulls still hold the key to this stock market
• Jackson Hole: Fed’s Powell could join rather than fight bond vigilantes as yields surge
• Red flags waving for tech stocks as AI bounce fades, China fears escalate.

NewsMax:

• Hunter's Lawyer Threatened to Call Joe to Stand in Plea Talks.
• Pam Bondi: Georgia Trial Date 'Ultimate Election Interference'.
• Trump Atty: Georgia Indictment ‘Affront to Constitution’.
• Pam Bondi: Democrats 'Weaponizing' Local DAs.
• Georgia State Sen. Moore: Defund, Impeach Fani Willis.
• Jason Miller: Most Voters See Trump Charges as Political.

 Fox News:

• Think Biden has liberal media in his pocket? You won't believe how close they really are.
• 42 million Americans in the path of historic and life-threatening storm.
• Putin's robot spacecraft crashes into the moon after spinning out of control.
• The specific type of cancer diagnoses more young people are receiving.
• 166-year-old luxury retailer warns it may relocate iconic store thanks to Democrats.
• Boy beaten to tears, forced to kiss feet of suspected migrants in video sparking outcry.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Outrageous! Maui County Mayor Has No Idea How Many Children are Missing 11 Days After Lahaina Inferno (Video). 
• Hawaii Governor Josh Green Announces Over 1,050 Lahaina, Maui Citizens Remain Unaccounted for Including Children (VIDEO).
• Citing “Legendary” 46 Point Polling Lead, Trump Makes it Official: “I WILL THEREFORE NOT BE DOING THE DEBATES!”–Plural.
• Ronna McDaniel Says She Still Hopes Donald Trump Will Attend GOP Debate This Week So FOX News Can Attack Him – Sorry Ronna, That Ship Has Sailed (VIDEO).
• Popular Kid’s Game Roblox Being Sued for Allegedly Preying on Children, Facilitating Child Gambling in Violation of RICO.
• World’s Top Chess Federation Restricts Transgender Biological Males Competing in Women’s Tournaments.
•   Texas Power Prices Surge 6,000% as Grid Operator Asks Residents to Reduce Energy Usage Due to ‘Low Wind Generation’.
• Maria Bartiromo Grills Ronna McDaniel on How GOP will Protect Members from Junk Lawsuits by the Radicalized Left – Ronna Has No Answer (VIDEO).
• Watch: Star NFL QB Gives High Praise to ‘Sound of Freedom,’ Addresses Reporters with Kids
• Bartiromo: Biden Regime Sold $300 Million Worth of Border Wall Parts for $2 Million (Video).
• Two Athletes Die During Triathlon Swim in Ironman Ireland.
• Andrew McCarthy Reveals the “Giant Hole” in Fani Willis’s Case Against President Trump Which Proves His Innocence.
• Jim Jordan Subpoenas Citibank for Alleged ‘Back Channel’ Sharing of Customer Data with FBI in Jan. 6 Probe.
• Government Seeks 30 Years In Prison For J6 Political Prisoner Zachary Rehl For Walking Through Capitol Building For A Few Minutes — PLEASE HELP ZACH SECURE PRIVATE COUNSEL FOR APPEAL.
• Hurricane Hilary Downgraded to Category 2 Storm as Southern California Braces for Impact.
• Joe Rogan Blasts the Left’s Obsession With Climate Change: ‘You’re Not Saving Jack Sh*t!’ (VIDEO).
• OF COURSE: AOC and Other ‘Squad’ Members Have Spent $1.2 Million in Campaign Cash on Private Security After Calling for Defunding the Police.
• Broadway Star Famous for Roles In “Mamma Mia!” and “Wicked” Dies Suddenly at 40.

The Epoch Times:

• From Socialism to Liberty: Argentina's Primary Elections Reflect Ideological Shift.
• Chinese Economy a 'Dead Man Walking'? Strategist Weighs In on Property Crisis.
• American Taxpayers Deserve Transparency From the NIH.
• With Economy in Crisis, China Resorts to Cover up.
• CCP's Capital Market Reform Measures Won't Prevent Looming Economic Crisis: Experts.

Twitter:

• @theinformantofc - Earthquake Weapon. | #HAARP project. Can antenna arrays around the world cause deadly earthquakes thousands of miles away? (video)
  
• @wil_da_beast630 - Boys actually underperform girls at every educational level, for example, far more than the tiny IQ gap would predict. (graph)
• @4winds_ - VIDEO EVIDENCE. Metal from cars melted and flowed like streams. Videographer receiving significant threats over raw footage taken in Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii. (video)
• @Truthpole - Developing new stories of Horrors that people saw in Lahaina. Rest in Peace for all those innocent souls. (video) The Mayor of Lahaina is evicting people who's houses didn't get burned down and those who still have houses, forcing them to move to somewhere else before September 31st. So they can build a "Command Center". (video)
• @Agent131711 - More insane #Hawaiiwildfires footage. Cars toasted, steel and glass melted, buildings leveled, powerlines untouched, clumps of trees standing, random houses look fine. (video)
• @Louisaclary - Heartbreaking #MauiFire . "The water was OFF." The "5 min warning". Children's bones. Can anyone confirm FEMA contracts for land grab?True? **Note: This is a resident's account -opinion is hers. Jenne's "update" video with school specifics. (video)
• @HumanDilemma_  - Maui Fire - Different vantage point of how the fire spread. (video) Geoff interviews residents and government employees in West Maui. (video)
• @Libsoftiktok - Drag queen with massive prosthetic breasts and visible protruding nipples says “we’re the ones you keep your kids away from” while performing a hypersexualized show in front of children at the Austin “family-friendly” pride festival. (video)
• @wideawake_media -  Professor Norman Fenton, on 15 minute cities: "It's absolutely catastrophic. Nobody ever voted for this. People are not allowed to use their cars outside of their 15 minute 'zone' more than 100 times per year. The idea is essentially to stop you travelling wherever you want." (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 977,541 Reports(+2,427 from prior week) Through August 4th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.0 +6.25 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 83.75 +4.0 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.4 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.1 +1.2%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 -2.0 basis points. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.81%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%.
• S&P 500 futures +.05%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.14%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.