Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on More Hawkish Fed Worries, Rising Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Tech/Retail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 +5.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.25%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.2 -.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.98 +.22%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.0 +1.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 23.9 +10.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 92.0 -17.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.0 -14.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.33 -31.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.3 +1.52%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 331.72 +.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 359.0 -4.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.27 +.26% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 267.45 -.48%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 166.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 128.61 -.47%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 208.82 -.58%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.9 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.75 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• TED Spread 18.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -12.0 -.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 179.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 772.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 70.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 43.3 +1.8%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.47% +4.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 112.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.36%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.9 euros/megawatt-hour -13.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 60.5 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -64.8 +.4 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.4 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(482 of 500 reporting) -6.2%  +1.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 235.73 n/a:  Growth Rate +7.4% n/a, P/E 18.8 n/a
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.18% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +24.3% +7.3 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 234.17 n/a: Growth Rate +42.7% n/a, P/E 32.8 n/a
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .32 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.09 -11.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -78.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.91% +15.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.23% unch.: CPI YoY +3.83% +1.0 basis point
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Nov. 1st FOMC meeting: 54.6%(-3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th meeting: 53.7%(-1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -532 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -57 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/medical/transport sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.9%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -2.3% 2) Semis -1.9% 3) Airlines -1.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SNOW, CLDX, UPWK, SMCI, BURL, DLTR, SPR and AMC
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) DLTR 2) CHPT 3) GRPN 4) BURL 5) LC
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) OIG 2) WOOF 3) OPRA 4) UFI 5) SPR
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.3%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• Insurance +.7% 2) Electric Vehicles +.5% 3) Regional Banks +.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• GES, VFS, BBW, SPLK, EHAB, FL, FIHL, GRPN, SAVA, WB, BMA, FUTU, ITOS, FWRD and NVDA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) SPLK 2) DLTR 3) IYR 4) ADSK 5) ANF

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVDA 2) GES 3) BBW 4) SPLK 5) BLZE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (HIBB)/.73

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment final readings.

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• (RUSHA) 3-for-2
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking and the German GDP report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running -12.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.8 +1.9
  
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 35.9% of Issues Advancing, 60.6% Declining
• 41 New 52-Week Highs, 69 New Lows
• 45.9%(-.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 40.0 -1.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.4 -.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,398.8 -.71%
• 1-Day Vix 13.3 -13.4%
  
• Vix 16.6 +3.7%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.07 -8.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.22 -37.4%
  

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Debt-Fueled Housing Market Is Having a Meltdown, Again.
• China’s LGFV Insiders Say $9 Trillion Debt Problem Is Worsening.
• China Braces for $38 Billion in Losses in Troubled Trust Sector.
• Japan to Begin Nuclear Wastewater Releases That Anger China.
• HK Sushi Restaurants Brace for Cost Jump After Japan Seafood Ban. 
• US in Talks With Venezuela Over Sanctions Relief in Return for "Fair" Elections.
• Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, Mercenary Who Defied Putin, Is Presumed Dead.
•   Stocks, Treasuries Rise on Stronger Risk Sentiment: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Drops for Fourth Day With Venezuela Aiding Supply Outlook.
• Nvidia’s AI Windfall Set to Rescue Nasdaq 100 From Dismal August.
• Unlikely Bidder Behind $7.8 Billion US Steel Deal Backs Away. 
• Powell Is Using Jackson Hole as Final Push in Inflation Fight.
• Neighbors Don’t Want to be ‘Test Dummies’ For Biden’s Carbon Removal Hubs.
• Cow-Free Dairy Wants to Beat the Fake Foods Curse, But First … Those Prices.

Zero Hedge:

• Watch: Trump Warns Tucker, "There's A Level Of Passion... And Hatred I've Never Seen" And That's "Probably A Bad Combination".
• Watch Live: 8 GOP Presidential Candidates Battle For A Participation Trophy.
• Wagner Decries 'Murder' Of Prigozhin Amid Reports Anti-Air Missile Struck Plane.
• Doctor Suspended Over Covid Vaccine Stance To Sue Ohio Medical Board.
• Philly Real Estate Influencer "Big Bizzneesss" Accused Of Fraud.
• Busted! Fox News & Martha MacCallum Caught Presenting Koch Brothers Activist As Fake DeSantis Voter.
• Huawei To Dodge US Sanctions With 'Secret' Network Of Chip Factories.
• Federal Judge Sides With Christian Activist Banned By University For Calling Transgender Student 'Male'.
• An Inconvenient Truth: The Global Wildfire Narrative Mainstream Media Won't Touch.
• Thacker: Leading Medical Journal Busted With Huge Conflict Of Interest Over 'Medical Misinformation' Expert.
• Why The COVID Delusion Continues.
• US stocks gained as yields softened on weak PMI data, while Nvidia also provided a boost - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Letitia James Threatens Schools That Ban Classroom Materials On 'Pretext' Of Obscenity, Lewdness.
• Nvidia Erupts To New Record High On Blowout Q2 Earnings, Whisper-Shattering Q3 Guidance, And New $25BN Buyback.
• Atlanta College Bringing Back Mask Mandates, Canceling Parties, Despite Zero Covid Cases.
• Blinken Repeats "Crimea Is Ukraine" As Kiev Steps Up Attacks On Peninsula.
• McCarthy Recycles Biden Impeachment Tease.
• To Combat Crime Surge In American Cities, Many Turn To Private Alternatives. 
• Stocks and bonds rally after soft US PMI data into Jackson Hole - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Major Supply Chain Issues Are Starting To Develop All Over The Country.
• Rand Paul On Return Of COVID Measures: "These People Have No Shame".
• Bonds, Bitcoin, Big-Tech, & Bullion Soar As 'Bad News' Is Good News Again.

Wall Street Journal:

• Trump to Appear in Interview With Tucker Carlson.
• Retailers ‘Shrink’ From Plain Talk About Theft. The industry euphemism for theft disguises the rising cost of crime.
• Bonds and CDs Are Finally Paying. Be Prepared for Taxes.
• Shocking Candor on Fuel Standards. Bureaucrats admit that ‘net benefits for passenger cars remain negative.’  
• In Maui’s Lahaina, ‘Uncle Frank’ Died With Sam, the Family Dog.
• Wagner Chief Prigozhin Dies in Russia Plane Crash.
• SEC Passes New Rules Aimed at Private Equity, Hedge Funds.
• The City Where People Aren’t Going Back to Offices.
• Hunter Biden’s Foreign Dealings Spell More Trouble Ahead.
• Wall Street’s China Dreams Slip Away.
• How High a Rate Can Housing Take?

CNBC.com:

• China’s deflation could spill over into a global concern, economists say.
• Nvidia’s blowout earnings report shows chipmaker is gobbling up the profit in AI.
• Nvidia tops estimates and says sales will jump 170% this quarter, driven by demand for AI chips.
• Boeing says a new 737 Max flaw will slow airplane deliveries.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Nvidia, Splunk, Autodesk, Guess and more.
  

Investing.com:

• Splunk Inc. shares jumped 12% after the software maker beat expectations for revenue and profit. Gary Steele, CEO of Splunk, said: “Through our ongoing focus on accelerating innovation and harnessing AI, we unveiled many important advancements during the quarter to help customers strengthen their overall digital resilience and security posture.”

MarketWatch:   

• Nvidia’s stock soars after AI boom pushes chip giant to record earnings and blowout forecast.
• Snowflake breaks its string of guidance cuts, and its stock heads higher.
• Will Powell crush stocks again during Friday’s Jackson Hole speech? Here’s one reason investors shouldn’t worry.
• On eve of Nvidia results, Cathie Wood sells more shares in the chip manufacturer.
• Famed short seller Marc Cohodes rails against ‘sociopath’ critics and says he lost ‘a million dollars’ on AMC bet in wild interview.
• As concerns mount about organized retail crime, these are the products being targeted. 
• Autodesk’s stock jumps 7% on revenue, earnings beat.

 Newsmax:

• Giuliani: US 'Rights' Mean Nothing to 'Biden People'.
• Bernie Kerik: Legislators 'Fearful, Quiet, Cowardly'.
• Speaker McCarthy: House Likely to Probe Federal Maui Response.
• Trump's Poll Dominance Looms Over GOP Debate.

 Fox News:

• Biden campaign claims he is already the 'Democratic nominee,' but there's a problem

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Tucker Carlson Announces Tonight’s Interview with President Trump – Then Takes a Swipe at his Former Employer FOX News (VIDEO)
• Why We Won’t Be Watching: Here Are 10 Questions That Won’t Be Asked Tonight at the GOP Debate on FOX News
• ‘Biden’s Open Border Policies Are Inhumane’ – South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem to Deploy National Guard to Southern Border (VIDEO)
• SHOCKING VIDEO RELEASED: 98-Year-Old Newspaper Owner Dies a Day After the Entire Police Force Raids Her Home
• EPIC! Former Georgia GOP Chair David Shafer Trolls Fani Willis with Mugshot After He Turns Self in at Fulton County Jail
• Japan Issues Shelter-In-Place For Okinawa After North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile
• Report: Those Who Disobeyed Road Barricade Survived Maui Fire; Those Who Didn’t Perished
• DNC to Fly Anti-Republican Plane Above GOP Debate Despite Cries About ‘Climate Emergency’.
• Argentina: Leftist Movements Coordinate Wave of Supermarket Lootings and Robberies in the Country – COMMUNISTS AIM TO DISPLACE ELECTIONS.
• WATCH: Giuliani Issues Warning to Marxist DA as He Turns Himself in at Fulton County Jail, ‘I’m the Same Rudy Giuliani That Took Down the Mafia’.
• Biden Administration Announces Massive $5 Billion COVID-19 Funding Called “Project NextGen”.
• Satellite Images of Maui Fire Taken Down “At the Request of Responding Organizations in Hawai’i”.
• Maine Hospital Holds Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Prayer Service Where Whites Apologize for Their “Internalized Racism”.

The Epoch Times:

• CCP's Infiltration in US Colleges Puts Students, Crucial Tech at Risk: Researchers.
• The CCP Tries to Hide an Ugly Reality.
• China’s Shrinking Spending Power Will Inevitably Drag Down Global Economy: Experts.
• The Mounting Risks in Chinese Banking.

Twitter: 

• @Truthpole - It has been nearly two weeks and still no confirmation about the missing people and CHILDREN in Maui. (video)
• @HumanDilemma_ - Maui Fire - "We're All Trapped In Here, They're Blocking Off All Exits" Driver Furious In Newly Surfaced Video. (video) Maui Fire - FEMA officials are staying at Maui's remaining $1,000-per-night luxury hotels, while the Biden government is giving Hawaiians whose homes just burned down a lump sum of $700! (video) Maui Fire - Things that did not burn in Maui. (video)
  
• @MakisMD - Professor Angus Dalgleish, UK Doctor and Professor of Oncology at St. George's, University of London warns about COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines. (video)
• @VigilantNews - WEF Adviser: Population Collapse “Good for the Planet”. Remember how depopulation was called a right-wing conspiracy theory? Things have changed, and “population collapse,” which can no longer be denied, is now good for us!
• @VigilantFox - BUYER BEWARE: Livestock Vaccinated with MRNA Can Still Be Labeled ‘Organic’. (video)
• @robertlufkinmd - As the evidence grows for the association of refined carbohydrate/sugar consumption with metabolic syndrome and obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer, why aren’t more health conscious people turning to low carb/low sugar diets as a normal healthy behavior? (graph)
• @LauraLoomer - About GARM - World Federation of Advertisers. Why is
  @x relying on GARM Via IAS to determine which accounts should have ads run on their content? GARM is a product of the World Economic Forum (WEF), which has a stated globalist, leftist, ideology.
• @WallStreetSilv - In Chinese supermarkets, facial recognition or QR code scan (linked to your CBDC account) now is mandatory for paying your goods. Many places don't accept cash anymore. If you are blacklisted by the Social Credit System, your payment will be denied. This system, if we allow it to spread to Europe and the USA, will be used to control access to food and energy. (video)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 977,541 Reports(+2,427 from prior week) Through August 4th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 122.0 -9.5 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 79.25 -2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 113.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.49%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 42.5 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.3 +1.0%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 30.0 +4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.0 -1.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.30%.

• S&P 500 futures +.48%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.90%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.