Style Underperformer:
- Large-Cap Value +.5%
- 1) Foods -1.4% 2) Restaurants -1.1% 3) Telecom -.7%
- COST, WMT, AES, MDLZ, BIPC, DPZ, CHD, HASI and AEHR
- 1) CL 2) AES 3) CMCSA 4) ACHR 5) CNK
- 1) EVA 2) AEHR 3) LEVI 4) PTCT 5) MPW
Friday, October 06, 2023
Bear Radar
Bull Radar
Style Outperformer:
- Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
- 1) Airlines +3.1% 2) Software +1.6% 3) Homebuilding +1.4%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
- CYTK,
CWEN/A, PXD, OSTK, ODD, PDD, SVV, NET, FUTU, CYBR, TTD, CRWD, RRC,
DDOG, SNOW, CRK, ELF, AR, MGM, FN, PR, ESTC, NTNX, FTDR, FANG, CALM,
ARIS, ASAN, WB, VERX, HNRG, AY, PINS, PLTR, VRNT, WYNN, MTW, LAUR, VKTX,
BILI, WDAY, CTRA, CRDO, AMD, BOWL, AKRO, LVS, VERV, QLYS, DAVA, MLM,
FCX, VMC, BIDU, UTF, JD, CNK, NEM, IDXX, OXY and ARRY
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
- 1) SH 2) EWJ 3) EMB 4) VMW 5) PXD
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
- 1) PXD 2) SMR 3) ELF 4) FTDR 5) TEAM
Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
- None of note
After the Close:
- None of note
- None of note
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Barr speaking and the China Trade Balance report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
-
9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST (Bond market closed for Columbus Day)
Morning Market Internals
NYSE Composite Index:
- NYSE Volume Running -5.7% Below 100-Day Average
- Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.5 -.4
- 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
- 40.3% of Issues Advancing, 56.8% Declining
- 13 New 52-Week Highs, 302 New Lows
- 32.1%(-1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
- Average 14-Day RSI 26.0 +1.0
- Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.7 +.3%
- Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,120.1 +.72%
- 1-Day Vix 14.5 -25.6%
- Vix 18.4 -.5%
- Total Put/Call 1.06 -18.5%
- TRIN/Arms .74 -12.9%
Thursday, October 05, 2023
Stocks Slightly Lower into Afternoon on Diminishing US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, European Debt Angst, Technical Selling, Alt Energy/Consumer Discretionary Sector Weakness
Broad Equity Market Tone:
- Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
- Sector Performance: Mixed
- Volume: Below Average
- Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
- Volatility(VIX) 18.7 +.5%
- DJIA Intraday % Swing .66% -16.2%
- Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 71.1 -1.7%
- Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 166.6 -.09%
- Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.9 +.11%
- CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 27.4 -.94%
- ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 +10.0 points
- Total Put/Call 1.24 -22.0%
- NYSE Arms .89 -14.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
- North American Investment Grade CDS Index 77.54 +.5%
- US Energy High-Yield OAS 365.92 +1.8%
- Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 376 +8
- European Financial Sector CDS Index 101.3 +3.49%
- Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 325.35 +1.3%
- Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 201.0 basis points +7.0 basis points
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.3 +1.4%
- Emerging Market CDS Index 238.8 +1.04%
- China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.64 +.04%
- 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -9.25 basis points -.75 basis point
- TED Spread 19.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
- 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -29.5 +.25 basis point
- MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 181.0 -2.0 basis points
- Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 913.0 unch.
- Avg. Auto ABS OAS 83.0 +2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
- Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 -.11%
- 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.49% -1.0 basis point
- China Iron Ore Spot 114.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.24%
- Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.2 euros/megawatt-hour -5.8%
- Citi US Economic Surprise Index 50.5 +.2 point
- Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -47.8 +.2 point
- Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 16.4 -.1 point
- S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(20 of 500 reporting) +3.4% +2.0 percentage points
- S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 239.98 +.10: Growth Rate +9.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.7 +.1
- S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.19% unch.
- NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
- NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 265.06 +.30: Growth Rate +59.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 28.0 -.1
- Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .00 unch.
- Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.20 -1.0 basis point
- US Yield Curve -30.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
- US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +4.87% unch.
- Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.69% unch.
- 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 -3.0 basis points
- Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 67.2%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 64.1%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
Overseas Futures:
- Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -25 open in Japan
- China A50 Futures: Indicating -172 open in China
- DAX Futures: Indicating +151 open in Germany
Portfolio:
- Slightly Lower: On losses in my transport/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
- Disclosed Trades: None
- Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:
- None of note
After the Close:
- None of note
8:30 am EST
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for Sept. is estimated to fall to 170K versus 187K in Aug.
- The Unemployment Rate is estimated to fall to 3.7% versus 3.8% in Aug.
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate for Sept. is estimated at 62.8% versus 62.8% in Aug.
3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for Aug. is estimated to rise to $11.7B versus $10.39B in July.
Upcoming Splits
- None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
- The Fed's Waller speaking and the German Factory Orders report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
- 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)