Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Stable Long-Term Rates, Loose US Financial Conditions, Technical Buying, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.4 +1.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .55% n/a
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.0 +2.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 167.5 +.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.9 -.63%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.8 +1.0% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 171.0 +20.0
  

• Total Put/Call .92 +18.0%

• NYSE Arms .85 -.53% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$100.7M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.0 +1.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 347.61 -.08%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 369 -5.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 70.8 +4.1% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 212.72 +3.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 169.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.94 +.86%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 172.29 -.02%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 109.54 +.56%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 -7.4%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 25.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -7.25 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 962.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 81.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.72 -.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 132.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.21%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.5 euros/megawatt-hour +7.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.0 -.8 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -46.0 -4.2 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.7 -.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 500 reporting) +12.2% -.1 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 242.48 +.15:  Growth Rate +11.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 +.1
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.08% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +0.0% -0.0 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 294.45 +1.17: Growth Rate +38.0% +.5 percentage point, P/E 29.6 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .67 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .45 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 4Q GDPNow Forecast +2.61% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 63.1% -.7 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.43% unch.: CPI YoY +3.38% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.22 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 20th FOMC meeting: 63.4%(+.7 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for May 1st meeting: 55.6%(+2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +66 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -14 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +224 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -1.1% 2) Homebuilding -.9% 3) Regional Banks -.9%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EXC, PNT, MIRM, LNTH and GPCR
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) EBIX 2) CVE 3) SPWR 4) ACN 5) EMB
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SPWR 2) EBIX 3) MIRM 4) VFC 5) NKLA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Shipping +3.3% 2) Steel +2.6% 3) Internet +1.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ZIMV, X, JRVR, GCT, HUT, CLF, PGTI, SGML, VRDN, CENX, SMCI, CAVA, KD, RILY, CXT, MT, CVNA, EDU, SBGI, TNP, UPST, KNSA, KNTK, LPLA, KNTK, COST and PHG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) HLT 2) NAT 3) UPWK 4) DHT 5) FOUR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) IVVD 2) ZIMV 3) X 4) SMCI 5) ARDX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACN)/3.15
• (FDS)/4.11
• (FCEL)/-.08
  

After the Close: 

• (FDX)/4.19
• (SCS)/.23
• (WOR)_/.44
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Nov. is estimated to fall to 1360K versus 1372K in Oct.
• Building Permits for Nov. is estimated to fall to 1465K versus 1498K in Oct.
  

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Oct.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Trade Data report, weekly US retail sales reports, BofA Hydrogen Conference, (LTHM) shareholders meeting and the (UNFI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +9.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.3 +5.5
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 51.1% of Issues Advancing, 46.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .95 -47.5% 
• Non-Block Money Flow +$150.9M
  
• 116 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
• 62.0%(+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 74.0 unch.

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.0 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 141.4 -.24%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 18,399.5 +.40%
  
• 1-Day Vix 8.1 -17.3%
  
• Vix 12.5 +1.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .92 +18.0%

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• China’s Real Estate Meltdown Is Battering Middle Class Wealth.
• Hong Kong Comeback Story Turns Into Terrible Year for Investors.
• Singapore Exports Swing to Growth First Time in 14 Months. 
• BOJ Likely to Keep World’s Last Negative Rate in Upcoming Decision.
• Canada to Announce 2035 All-EV Sales Mandate, Reports Say.
• Weary Chileans Reject Second Proposed Constitution, Dealing Blow to Country’s Political Class.
• Asia Stocks Fall in Early Trade After Fed Pushback: Markets Wrap.
• To Trade the Fed’s Pivot, Wall Street Turns to Short-Dated Debt.
• Fed’s Goolsbee Says Too Early to Declare Victory Over Inflation.
• Wall Street Traders Go All-In on Great Monetary Pivot of 2024.
• Dimon’s Heir at JPMorgan Still Hazy as ‘Five More Years’ Tick By.
• Wall Street Is Feeling Good. How About the Rest of Us?
• A $1.3 Trillion Debt-Fueled Boom in Deals Faces a Grim New Reality. 
• Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on Dollar as Goldman Sees More Declines.
• Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week.

Zero Hedge:

• Maher: "It's Hard To Negotiate When The Other Side's Position Is - You All Die And Disappear".
• 'Mega Cold Blast' Hits China As Temps Hit Record Lows.
• Yes, Hunter Is Now In Contempt Of Congress.
• "Smart Money" Bears Capitulate: Hedge Funds Cover Single Stock Shorts For The First Time In 19 Weeks.
• Kremlin May Preemptively Bar Uranium Exports To U.S., Firm Warns.
• 2024 Will See A Record Number Of Elections: Here Are The Implications According To Morgan Stanley.
• Weekend News Round Up - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Putin Blasts Biden's Claim That Russia Seeks To Attack NATO As "Complete Nonsense".
  
• There's Something Happening Here...
• How Skeptical Are Europeans About Vaccinations?
• Bottom? Turmoil In Used Rolex Market Might End After Fed's Bizarre Pivot .
• "A No Brainer": Musk's Starlink Breaks Through Bureaucracy And Corruption In Africa.
• Congress Approves Bill (Aimed At Trump) To Prevent Any President From Exiting NATO.
• 4th Generation Devastation: The West Has Been Targeted In A Cowardly Globalist Mind War.
• The 10 latest charts you need to know on sentiment & positioning.
• Long-Term Use Of Statins Linked To Heart Disease: Studies.
• Is Free Speech A Relic In America?
• Four Major Shipping Firms Halt Red Sea Route After Houthi Attacks.
• Pumping Seawater Into Gaza Tunnels Proves 'Successful' But Majority Of Hamas Still Intact: Report.
• Which Countries Are Most Interested In Generative AI?

Wall Street Journal:

• Israeli Military Reveals Tunnel It Says Hamas Built for Large Attack.
• Harvard Is Big Business at Its Worst. With large, tax-insulated endowments, Ivy League schools act like companies without market pressure.
• Jeffrey Epstein Never Stopped Abusing Women—and His VIP Circle Helped Make It Possible.
• Claudine Gay and My Scholarship. She failed to credit me for sections of my book, ‘Black Faces, Black Interests.’.
• It’s the Magnificent Seven’s Market. The Other Stocks Are Just Living in It.
• Biden’s 2024 Problem: Voters Say His Policies Hurt Them.
• Buy Now, Pay Later Keeps People Spending—Without Credit Agencies Knowing.
• It Seems We Have Hit A Point Where A Wall Is In The Way Of "Kicking The Can" Much Further.
• A Record Number Of American 40-Year-Olds Have Never Been Married.
• Haley's Top Backers Include Democrat Donors, Silicon Valley Billionaires.
• California Circles The Toilet Bowl.
• Blackstone Releases "Beyond Cringe" Holiday Video .
• Rickards' Five Forecasts For 2024.

CNBC:

• Recent data shows AI job losses are rising, but the numbers don’t tell the full story.
• Fed sparking irrational market optimism over potential rate cuts, former FDIC Chair Sheila Bair warns.
• How the escalating U.S.-China tech war could hurt American companies.

Reuters:

• Exclusive: Chinese firms look to Malaysia for assembly of high-end chips, sources say.
• Hong Kong luxury retailers adjusting to drop in high-spending Chinese tourists.
• Asia shares brace for BOJ meeting, US inflation test.
• Wall St Week Ahead Epic Treasury rally may be running out of fuel as Fed pivot priced in.

MarketWatch.com:

• Fed could be the Grinch who ‘stole’ cash earning 5%. What a Powell pivot means for investors.
• Illumina to sell cancer-test maker Grail after latest antitrust ruling.

NewsMax:

• Rep. Bob Good: Biden DOJ Will Protect Hunter Until Pardoned.

Fox News:

• Movie trailer sparks anger for saying 'White people' are most dangerous animal.
• Investor warns US entering ‘greatest real estate correction in my lifetime’.
• GOP will push to meet with Hunter Biden ally who paid his millions in back taxes, Rep. Smith says.
• NBC News frames Senate sex tape video as 'conservative news outlets' pushing the story.
• Convention featuring Hamas leaders argues nuclear-armed Pakistan could end Israel's war.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Crane Moved into Arlington Cemetery for Removal and Destruction of Civil War Reconciliation Memorial this Week
• Majority of Americans Greatly Concerned About Border Security According to New Fox News Poll
• POLITICAL PERSECUTION: Arizona State Rep. Alex Kolodin Sentenced to 18 Months Probation by Arizona Bar for Representing Conservatives and Filing Election Lawsuits – Disciplinary Agreement Included.
• Dem Senator Cardin’s Words Come Back to Haunt Him After Staffer Fired Following Gay Porn Scandal.
• Border Crisis: Border Patrol Officers Find $10 Million of Meth and Cocaine in Vats of Jalapeno Paste.
• Clueless Nikki Haley Slams President Trump on ABC – Says He Had ‘The Opportunity to Stop’ Capitol Riot But Had the Wrong “Tone” – And Chaos Follows Trump.
• Woke U.S. Military Faces 2024 with Smallest Size and Lowest Qualification Levels in 80 Years — Pentagon Issue “National Call of Service” to Younger Generations.
• Neighborhoods with Strong Families, Two-Parent Households Have Safer Streets: Study.
• West Virginia Secretary of State and Gubernatorial Candidate Mac Warner Explains Why He Believes 2020 Election was “Stolen by CIA” (VIDEO).
• Kash Patel: Republican Majority Rewarded FBI-DOJ for Breaking the Law – Approved FISA Process Through Next Election Cycle (VIDEO).
• Renewed Trust in Public Health Agencies Lies in a Return to Science, Not Special Interests.

X:

• @ChayaRaichik10 - @Harvard deleted their webpage on pronouns. They’re frantically removing dozens of pages from their site. (pic)
• @EndWokeness - Why is every woke movement hellbent on targeting ordinary people just trying to go about their day? (video)
• @AussieVal10 - Premier League Rocked as Club Captain Suffers Cardiac Arrest. (pic)
• @ChuckCallesto - JUST IN: Shock poll reveals MASSIVE voter fraud.. 17 % of mail in voters ADMITTED to voting in a state where they don’t live.. 21 % ADMITTED to filling out someone else’s ballot.. 8% reveal they were OFFERED MONEY to vote. (video)
• @songpinganq - If American people don't pay attention to FISA 702 in NDAA, this could be your future. Do NOT follow China's steps. Or you will lose your privacy and freedom. (video) Hengtai county, Shandong province. China's facial-recognition surveillance system publicly shames bikers by putting their pictures on a big screen. (video)
• @MakisMD - NURSES collapsing with Cardiac arrests, blood clots, aneurysms, dying in sleep, Turbo Cancers and Sudden Deaths - 100 Nurses Injured & dead (since May 2023). This is the Largest compilation of Nurses injured & killed by COVID-19 Vaccines ever published! SUMMER OF DIED SUDDENLY - ATHLETES & Retired Athletes (Football, Rugby, Basketball, Hockey, Baseball, Volleyball, Olympians, Triathletes, Cyclists, Racers, Surfers, golf) 88 Athlete deaths since May 2023: (list)
• @WallStreetSilv -  "It's an ESG cartel in this country". "Blackrock, State Street and Vanguard. They're using 20 plus trillion dollars of our money". (video)
• @Swordfishv44183  - $SPX priced nominally (black) vs inflation-adjusted (red) since 1950. rather incredible. (graph)
• @ClownWorld_ - Thank God California banned plastic straws. (pic) 
• @EvaVlaar - ‘Predictive programming’ is a tactic used by our elites and governments to prepare the general public for a future catastrophe through fictional stories/movies, to condition the masses into complying and accepting their instruments of control as the “solution” once those crises - that were manufactured by them (!) - actually occur. (video)
• @TonyClimate -  There has been no trend in Arctic sea ice extent since
  @GretaThunberg was four years old. (graph)
• @TheInsidePaper - NEW: Calls are growing for Congress to subpoena Jeffrey Epstein's flight logs in order to identify possible perpetrators who may have partaken in his trafficking ring - Fox

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 997,917 Reports(+9,212 from prior week) Through November 3rd, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to unch. on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 90.25 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 59.0 +1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 131.2 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.7 -.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.0 +2.7%.
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index n/a. 
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 -.17%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.46%.
• S&P 500 futures +.17%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.