Monday, July 15, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Wall Street Journal:

CNBC.com:

Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @TestDummy04
  • @BillboardChris
  • Squawk55
  • @Liz_churchill10
  • @OX_DAO
  • I used to work in military intelligence. My take on the Trump assassination attempt today: The guilty parties are definitely (1) the counter-sniper(s) and spotter(s) assigned to cover these specific rooftops and (2) the team leader responsible for all event pre-planning and assigning lines of sight. There is a 0% chance that a standard sniper-spotter team tasked with covering such a critical direct LOS rooftop did not spot a man crawling for over two minutes on an exposed rooftop with a rifle. The shooter's approach was amateurish; it wouldn't even pass basic training. He was fully exposed, easily visible to the public, on a critical rooftop, and extremely slow. (video)
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @CollinRugg
  • @WallStreetApes
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.25 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 58.25 +2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.6 +3.9%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.3 +.22%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.26%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.16%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Close on Trump Poll Surge, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.18%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 107.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.4 euros/megawatt-hour -1.1%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -45.5 +2.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -25.4 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.8 -6.0 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(28 of 500 reporting) +12.9% +4.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 261.50 +.24:  Growth Rate +14.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.81% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 332.28 +.47: Growth Rate +23.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 36.0 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .90 +8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -22.5 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.02% +2.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.1% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 +4.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 89.4%(-.9 percentage point) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 61.0%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +30 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -110 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +138 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my industrial/tech/biotech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ANGO)/-.17
  • (BAC)/.80
  • (MS)/1.65
  • (PNC)/2.99
  • (PGR)/2.04
  • (STT)/2.03
  • (UNH)/6.66
After the Close: 
  • (IBKR)/1.74
  • (JBHT)/1.49
  • (OMC)/1.95
  • (PNFP)/1.61
  • (SCHW)/.72
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • NY Fed Services Business Activity Index.
  • Retail Sales Advance MoM for June is estimated to fall -.3% versus a +.1% gain in May.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for June is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.1% decline in May.
  • Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in May.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.2% versus a -.4% decline in May.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for June is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.6% decline in May.

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.3% gain in April.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for July is estimated at 43 versus 43 in June.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kugler speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, (SCHW) business update and the (ADSK) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Sunday, July 14, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Zero Hedge: 
CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • RepThomasMassie
  • @JeckovKanani
  • @LauraLoomer
  • WATCH: Footage from President Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania tonight shows Trump supporters spotting the shooter before he opened fire. Trump supporters can be heard screaming “HE’S GOT A GUN! HE’S GOT A GUN”! Before the shooter tried to kill President Trump. How did this happen? (video)
  • @FreePartyAus
  • @MyLordBebo
  • @LetsGoBrando45
  • @Lukewearechange
  • So let me get this straight..... 1 - The shooter at Trump’s rally was spotted acting suspiciously near the event, Authorities announced over radio to keep an eye on him, and this info was passed to Secret Service. - CNN
  • @bambkb 
  • @OkeefeMedia 
  • @AZ_Intel_
  • @robbystarbuck
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @TRHLofficial
  • @dbongino
  • realchrisrufo
  • @DMichaelTripi
  • @kylenabecker
  • @MarioNawful
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • @wideawake_media
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @1776Diva
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @DC_Draino
  • @amuse
  • @fightwithmemes
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.0 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 55.75 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.31%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.3 -.05%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.2 -.02%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 13.9 -1.2%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.45%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.17%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.