Stocks Finish Higher on China Rate-Cut, Less Democrat Presidential Candidate Chaos, Technical Buying, Tech/Construction Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.8 -10.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .62 -38.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.6 +4.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 187.9 -.29%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.4 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 11.2 -14.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 -21.0
  

• Total Put/Call .88 +8.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.35 +117.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$237.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.4 -2.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 261.4 -1.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 243 -17
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.4 -2.1%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 154.4 -1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 128.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.70 -1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 163.26 -2.5%
  
• Israel Sovereign CDS 127.8 +.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 +.29%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.75 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread .5 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 144.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 689.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.2 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.33% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.71%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 31.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -30.1 +4.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -27.3 -1.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.7 -3.0 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(73 of 500 reporting) +8.1% -.8 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.13 +.53:  Growth Rate +14.8% +.2, P/E 21.1 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.80% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +43.8%
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 334.95 +2.77: Growth Rate +24.9% +1.1 percentage point, P/E 34.1 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .86 -5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .70 -9.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -26.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +2.73% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 57.6% -2.0 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.39% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.29 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 91.7%(-2.3 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 52.0%(-5.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -19 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +145 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my biotech/tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/financial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.3%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Telecom -.7% 2) Energy -.5% 3) Oil Service -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CELH, AEHR, VZ, CRWD and HE
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ZI 2) CSTM 3) CRWD 4) BK 5) COPX
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CRWD 2) DAL 3) CVS 4) ODD 5) DRCT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) AIRR 2) XLI 3) SMH 4) XLP 5) VGT

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.7%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +3.7% 2) Construction +2.0% 3) Construction +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SAVA, MAT, EMBC, FDMT, WBTN, TEX, AMSC, IQV, DNLI, S, CELC, ACMR, TSLA, NYT, AWI, IMMR, SLAB, AIR, ML, TALO, AGYS, ADMA, LXEO, NFLX, SCHW, NKE and LXEO
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TELL 2) ALIT 3) ACB 4) S 5) CRWD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TELL 2) MAT 3) SERV 4) RDDT 5) DQ
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLC 3) XBI 4) SOXX 5) XLY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ACI)/.67
• (AVY)/2.26
• (KO)/.81
• (DHR)/1.57
• (FCX)/.40
• (GE)/.99
• (GM)/2.70
• (GPC)/2.59
• (HCA)/4.93
• (HRI)/2.91
• (KMB)/1.71
• (LMT)/6.46
• (MCO)/3.03
• (PCAR)/2.14
• (PM)/1.57
• (PHM)/3.27
• (DGX)/2.33
• (SHW)/3.49
• (SPOT)/1.05
• (UPS)/1.99
  

After the Close: 

• (GOOG)/1.84
• (COF)/3.39
• (CB)/5.14
• (EQT)/-.19
• (MANH)/.96
• (MAT)/.17
• (RRR)/.44
• (STX)/.75
• (TSLA)/.61
• (TXN)/1.16
• (V)/2.42
• (NVR)/121.21
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for July. 
  

10:00 am EST

• The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July is estimated to rise to -6 versus -10 in June.
• Existing Home Sales for June is estimated to fall to 3.99M versus 4.11M in May.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports and the (VFC) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -11.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.9 +2.4
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 66.4% of Issues Advancing, 31.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.46 +135.4%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$188.0M
  
• 54 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
• 63.6% (+1.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 56.7 +3.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 237.1 +.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,299.1 +.93%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 53.0 (NEUTRAL) +4.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.7 -23.0%
  
• Vix 15.5 -6.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +7.4%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• The Biden administration beefed up Secret Service protection for President Zelenskyy. And denied beefed up Secret Service protection for President Trump!

• @LauraLoomer

• BREAKING: THE COVER UP OF THE INSIDE JOB TO ASSASSINATE PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CONTINUES. The Department of Homeland Security under DHS Secretary @SecMayorkas Alejandro Mayorkas has DENIED FOIA REQUESTS that pertain to the attempted assassination of President Trump on July 13, 2024. Remember, Mayorkas controls all @SecretService resources and he has DENIED requests made by Trump’s campaign for more security resources over the last 2 years. 
• Meet Dan Whitfield. He’s running for US Senate in Arkansas against @TomCottonAR. Dan said the world would be a better place if the bullet would have killed Donald Trump last Saturday. Dan deleted the tweet. And then he deleted his X account. 
• Every single conservative who is saying @SecretService Director Kim Cheatle should simply “resign” is LOW IQ. We now know she and DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas @AliMayorkas intentionally denied President Trump more security resources when his campaign asked. We also know that they identified a shooter at least 30 minutes before shots were fired, which was 10 minutes BEFORE President Trump took the stage at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

• @PhilHollowayEsq

• I was promised that voting machines were not connected to the internet.

• @GenFlynn

• I’m reposting this earlier post of mine after considering just the past 24 hours of breaking news. This is my message to the @GOP. You need to understand that the globalist left are going to do everything they can do to undermine, usurp, steal (I said it) this November’s presidential election.

• @MdBreathe

• Some of my followers told me last night I need to “move on.” I am still seeing vaccine injuries. I am still having trouble getting my patients IVM. I am still fighting for my license. All babies are expected to get the shots at their 6 month check-up. How can we move on when it’s still going on? I will not stop until the shots are pulled off the market and people are held accountable.

• @HarrisonHSmith

• So let me see if I have this Crowdstrike story straight…. When Hillary Clinton was Sec. of State, she was illegally funneling sophisticated weapons through Libya to terrorists in the MidEast in an effort to take out Assad in Syria for Israel. When the weapons transfer went sideways and the US Ambassador was killed in Benghazi, it was discovered she was using an illegal private server for secret communications. She destroyed the server, but not before its contents were leaked by Wikileaks, including communications about bizarre occult rituals and inexplicable code words involving children and pizza...

• @JamesMelville

• “These so-called green or ethical solutions aren’t solutions at all. Just very good marketing from the $1.5 trillion a year climate change industry.” Inconvenient truth. Net zero is a huge con. A gigantic transfer of wealth to corporations under the auspices of fake virtue. (video)

• @ChuckCallesto

• Kamala Harris would hate if you shared this video of her questioning election integrity.. (video)

• @Ultrafrog17
  

• Omg. Crowdstrike CEO starts panicking and choking on his words when the media asks him why a single content update could shut down the entire system. Look at how nervous this man is. What is he hiding? (video)
  

• @dom_lucre

• BREAKING: Donald Trump stuns American with this massive crowd at his Michigan rally. Governor Gretchen Whitmer released a video earlier today alluding to the people of Michigan not accepting Donald Trump. It appears she was wrong. (video)

• @kylenabecker
  

• RFK Jr: Democrats 'Fixing' 2024 Nomination is Like Something You See Out of Putin's Russia. "A few weeks ago, President Biden was ridiculing Vladimir Putin, who won 88% of the vote in Russia, and he said that that was a 'fixed election'...". Independent presidential candidate @RobertKennedyJr in an interview with
  @JesseBWatters explains the ways the Democrats "fixed" the 2024 primaries and the party nomination: 
• BREAKING. The Washington Post proves that DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas *LIED* about not denying Secret Service protection to former President Donald Trump prior to last Saturday's assassination attempt. The Secret Service and DHS Secretary Mayorkas both lied to the public about the denial of Trump team security requests.
  

• @MarioNawful

• THOMAS CROOKS’ FORMER SCHOOL: HE WAS NOT BULLIED. Bethel Park School District: "There is a painful misconception that Thomas Crooks was relentlessly bullied in school, which may have led to the assassination attempt on former President Trump. According to our records, Mr. Crooks excelled academically, regularly attended school, and had no disciplinary incidents, including those related to bullying or threats. Thomas Crooks was never a member of the school's rifle team and we have no record of him trying out. The coach does not recall meeting him.
• BREAKING: RNC POSTS BEST FUNDRAISING MONTH IN YEARS, RAISING $66M IN JUNE. The Republican National Committee reported its highest fundraising month since late 2020, raising over $66 million in June according to FEC filings.
  

• @EndWokeness 

• How the heII did this woman get the job? (video)

• @LaraLogan

• We have been lied to about technology & the price we pay for “efficiency” - it is time to curb the power of these global monopolies that rely on dominating our systems & taking over our lives to succeed. If you cannot see the danger, I cannot figure out what is wrong with you.

• @KarluskaP

• Clip of Trump interview with Jesse Watters - Trump says he was never warned of the threat. (video)

• @WallStreetSilv

• Klaus Schwab Foreshadowing a Comprehensive Cyberattack. (video)
  

• @stillgray

• Jesse Watters nailed it here. Dropping out just because you know you can’t win just so some elites can pick your replacement is not how democratic elections are supposed to be. (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes
  

• Keep Hammering These Facts Until The Whole Country Gets It. “If there was ever any doubt in your mind whether the assassination attempt against Trump was planned or not, whether your government knew about it. 2 things: Number 1, the largest bets ever made against the stock were made against Truth Social the day before. Number 2, when's the last time you've seen CNN go live and show you a Trump rally? It's been about 5 years. Okay, They wanted to get it on video and they wanted to rub it in your face. Well, they missed.” (video)

• @KobeissiLetter
  

• The US debt crisis is terrible: Currently, every new dollar of US public debt generates just $0.58 of GDP, near the lowest on record. By comparison, in the 1960s this metric was as high as $9.80, and in 2000 it was $4.00, or 7 times above current levels. Over the last 4 years, US national debt has skyrocketed by $11.6 trillion while US added $6.6 trillion in GDP. In other words, the US economy's productivity has declined near the worst levels in modern history. (graph)

• @amuse

• This story keeps getting stranger & stranger. Evidently police texted crime scene photos of Crooks' body to an unknown man in a grey suit. @MariaBartiromo is reporting that Sen @RonJohnsonWI uncovered his identity and included it in his preliminary report.
  

OpenVAERS: 

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,012,894 Reports(+1,222 from prior report) Through June 28th, 2024.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are  to +% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.5 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Sovereign CDS 66.25 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.93%.
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.07 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.3 +2.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.9 -.42%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.35%.
• S&P 500 futures +.17%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.30%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week.