Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (CCL)/1.17
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Sept. is estimated to rise to 46.4 versus 46.1 in Aug.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to -10.6 versus -9.7 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (SMCI) 10-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, end of 3Q, (AFRM) investor meeting, (RMD) investor day and the (FRPT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.8 +1.9
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 72.4% of Issues Advancing, 25.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .90 -2.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$194.5M
  
• 193 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 62.4% (+4.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 68.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.6 +.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 228.5 -.12%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,710.6 -1.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (GREED) -3.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.7 +.8%
  
• Vix 15.8 -4.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 +11.7%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Kamala has vowed to break the filibuster. (pic)

• @annvandersteel

• BREAKING: ALL HANDS ON DECK AMERICANS. Intelligence just in from the southern border that 9 surface to air missiles have been smuggled into the U.S. across the New Mexico border. Intended target: Trump Force One.

• @TomiLahren
  

• If you’re wondering why the system turned on Eric Adams… (video)

• @megynkelly

• To all of those on the Left & in the media spilling barrels of ink on whether “they’re eating the pets” in Springfield - anyone care about the fact that they’re raping the children in Nantucket? (pic)
  

• @LauraLoomer

• WATCH: New York City Democrat Mayor Eric Adams slashed funding for illegal immigrants in New York 7 months ago. Tonight, the Democrats sent a clear message to every other elected Democrat official: “if you speak out against Border Czar Harris, bad things will happen to you.” (video)

• @JesseBWatters

• NEW @KamalaHarris interview just dropped: she rambled, never answered questions directly, said the American Dream is gone, and sank her campaign. (video)
  

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: Wisconsin U.S. Congressman Tom Tiffany is calling for an investigation after election officials in Madison, Wisconsin "accidentally" mailed over 2,000 duplicate mail-in ballots to voters in the city for the 2024 election. “Voters deserve clear answers regarding the full scope of this blunder, how the city plans to restore public confidence in its ability to accurately administer the election, and assurances that those responsible are held accountable,” "There needs to be an independent investigation now, not after the election." (video) 
• BREAKING: Someone just hacked a voting machine within seconds live on PBD's podcast. He only used a preprogrammed USB stick that gave him total access to do whatever he wanted, including flipping or creating votes out of thin air. "If this would have been an election, I could have gone to the database and for example change the votes." PBD: "How much of it could you have changed?" "Anything, add new candidate who was not even on a ballot, it doesn't matter, because if you have total control over the system, you can do anything you want." (video)
  

• @catturd2 

• Everyone should listen to this. (video)

• @RepTiffany
  

• DEVELOPING: Although the Madison Clerk’s Office claims, “The voting system does not allow a ballot with the same barcode to be submitted,” my office has proof that there is no barcode on the actual ballots. Here is a picture of the absentee ballots – NO BARCODE.

• @MJTruthUltra
  

• Trump Calls for the Arrest of Nancy Pelosi. Pelosi sold $500k worth of VISA stock one day before the DOJ announced their lawsuit against VISA. (video)
• FBI Whistleblower Urges Americans to Vote, Arm Yourself, Stock up 3-4 Months Supply of Food and Water, and Pray. “This is a warning, to the American people I say.. I personally have no confidence the FBI will reign in its own conduct.” (video)
  

• @WallStreetApes

• Ex-Liberal Sums Up The 2024 Election Perfectly. (video)

• @EndWokeness

• Kamala on lowering housing costs: "Looking holistically … and looking holistically … in a holistic manner". (video)
  

• @DonaldJTrumpJr

• This was posted on the Ayatollah’s website. I guess we should expect nothing less from a terrorist regime. My father had Iran almost bankrupt… then the Biden/Harris administration game them billions making the world a far more dangerous place. Enough!

• @wideawake_media

• There is no "climate emergency". (pic)

• @jackunheard

• BREAKING: The Coca Cola boycott is officially happening. Their new custom website allows the use of "Harris 2024" but prohibits "Trump 2024" due to it being deemed "political in nature" or "offensive." This is election interference. People have also reported that you can use the name "Allah", but not "Jesus" because they restrict "religious figures" to not offend anyone. Last time I checked, "Allah" is a religious figure.

• @BoLoudon

• TRUMP JUST ASKED HOW THE FATHER OF THE BUTLER, PA SHOOTER HAS THE MOST EXPENSIVE ATTORNEY IN PITTSBURG! "How did he get to this big law firm from? It's sort of strange." We know the FAKE NEWS won't report this. Share to make this go viral! (video)

• @bennyjohnson

• KAMALA'S WORST NIGHTMARE: Video was just sent to me of hundreds of college students in the swing-state of Arizona registering to vote for Trump while ravenously donning bright red MAGA hats to wear on campus. Trump is winning the youth vote. (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.0 -1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 58.5 -2.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.3 +1.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -.26%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.

• S&P 500 futures unch.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.06%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Airlines Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.1 +.23%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.61% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne +2.4%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 37.9 euros/megawatt-hour +1.5%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -5.3 +7.4 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -57.6 +.5 basis point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -5.6 +1.1 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +28.4% +23.0 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 266.70 +.08:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.67% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.05 +.32: Growth Rate +27.9% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.3 -.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 +6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .76 +11.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 16.75 basis point (2s/10s) -5.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.93% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 62.9 -.5 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.77% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 50.5%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 44.7%(+5.0 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +536 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +490 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +203 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Oil Service -3.2% 2) Energy -1.4% 3) REITs -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BKR, DVN, OVV, PAA, OKE, TDW, QNST, VIST, FANG, NBR, CRTO, CLDX, AHH, ARIS, MMYT, CNXC and SMCI
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) INFN 2) SHEL 3) BB 4) ABR 5) STNE
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SMCI 2) CNXC 3) PGY 4) SONO 5) COP
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) KRE 4) XLV 5) IAI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +5.7% 2) Social Media +4.4% 3) Disk Drives +4.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TAL, BEKE, HTHT, BILI, NNE, MU, PDD, JD, EDU, ICHR, CAMT, YUMC, ATAT, BZ, JBL, XPEV, NOAH, TCOM, ACMR, BABA, RMBS, MBLX, MSTR, TME, MSTR, EH, EL, MARA, GOOS, BIDU, MNSO, ONTO, VIPS, AA, UAL, GCT, ZLAB, SCCO, PUK, CLSK, ALB, FUTU, WYNN, DQ, FLEX, LI, MD, FCX, ZTO, LUV, COIN, UCTT, CE, AAL, ACLS, TECK, FRO, LITE, ACIC, MUX, SYRE, WDC, LEGN, DAL, LRCX, NVMI, JKS, WCC, SQM, VALE, BHP, JKS, WWW, LOVE, WFC, MT, SKX, DEO, NTES, ACN, STAA, TNK, FSLR, NCLH, KMX, RIO, PPG, BHVN, ATXS, ERO, LSPD, AOS, TVTX and CCL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MLCO 2) TIGR 3) YANG 4) PGY 5) WYNN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MU 2) JBL 3) BABA 4) FCX 5) LRCX
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) PPA 2) SMH 3) XBI 4) CCNR 5) XLB
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume