Monday, October 07, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • @Inga_C8
  • @GenFlynn
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @MattWallace888
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @GardensR4Health
  • @RepMTG
  • @DC_Draino
  • What the hell?! A government helicopter flew threateningly low near a Cajun Navy volunteer supply drop in North Carolina and blew their supplies all over the parking lot Uniparty hacks keep complaining about “misinformation” with the feds trying to thwart rescue efforts. Well here’s video proving they are... (video)
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @charliekirk11
  • @LaurenWitzkeDE
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @Franklin_Graham
  • @WallStreetSilv
  • @KristyTallman
  • @WarClandestine
  • @wideawake_media
  • @TPV_John
  • @barethetrooth
  • Why people are RIGHTLY suspicious of #HurricaneMilton! Milton (which has now grown into a cat-3 hurricane) formed from a long-tracked tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea, which is not typical for many hurricanes. It's extremely strange for a storm to form here and then track directly east across the Gulf towards Florida! This is the first time EVER there are 3 active Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin in October. Also this will mean two major storms in short succession potentially making landfall very close to the same area.. very odd. When you add in the odd behavior and lack of response from FEMA.. it begins to paint a dark picture.. (video)
  • @MarioNawful
  • BREAKING: HACKERS BREACH AMERICAN WATER WORKS SYSTEMS | TARGET 14M+ CUSTOMERS. Hackers have compromised American Water Works, the largest regulated water supplier in the U.S., impacting over 14 million people in states including New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, as well as 18 military bases. The Camden-based utility has shut down specific systems to prevent further risk, pledging there will be no late fees for affected customers.
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @songpinganq
  • @JoeyMannarinoUS
  • @amuse
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 109.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.2 +3.0%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.50%.
  • S&P 500 futures unch.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close at Session Lows on Hurricane Milton Fears, Surging Long-Term Rates, Escalating Mid-East Regional War Tensions, Telecom/Insurance Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.3%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 113.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 +.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.8 -3.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.1 +2.3 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +18.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.07 +.18:  Growth Rate +14.5% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% +3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.88 +.66: Growth Rate +28.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.5 +.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +20.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 +8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 2.75 basis point (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.6 -9.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 72.9%(-7.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 61.0%(-8.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -242 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +2,229 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +121 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value -.9%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Electric Vehicles +2.2% 2) Energy +.9% 3) Disk Drives +.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SRRK, NAPA, EH, SMCI, DJT, HIMS, JKS, CSIQ, LQDA, VSTO, GRPN, APD, GNRC, GRPN, NOAH, CPNG, BECN, MSTR, FWRD, ACMR, DQ, LI, MDGL, FRO, CDNA, ATAT, CART, VITL, SVCO, AGX, SGML and MWA
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ALTM 2) CHAU 3) FRO 4) CSIQ 5) DQ
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) ALTM 2) SMCI 3) LOBO 4) NAPA 5) SRRK
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XRT 3) XLE 4) SOXX 5) XLY
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (PEP)/2.28
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 92.0 versus 91.2 in Aug.

8:30 am EST

  • The Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated at -$70.5B versus -$78.8B in July.

Upcoming Splits

  • (NVEE) 4-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (WYNN) investor meeting, (ED) business update, (PG) general meeting, (SIG) annual meeting and the (GM) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -2.6% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 +.3
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 26.7% of Issues Advancing, 71.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .60 unch.
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$358.9M
  • 117 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
  • 58.4% (-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 unch.
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.0 +1.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.7 +.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,771.7 +.04%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (GREED) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 12.2 -12.7%
  • Vix 21.1 +10.0%
  • Total Put/Call .84 -17.7%

Sunday, October 06, 2024

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:   
Le Monde:
The Economic Times:
Chatham House:
Global Research:
Zero Hedge: 
CNBC:  
MarketWatch.com:  
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @DogRightGirl
  • @GabiNga1
  • @ImMeme0
  • @BreannaMorello
  • @stillgray
  • @JackPosobiec
  • @LaraLogan
  • @JohnLeFevre
  • @charliekirk11
  • @EricAbbenante
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @WarlordDilley
  • ATTENTION FLORIDA. PLEASE SHARE. Several coastal, deep MAGA counties in the FL West coast might be evacuated in the coming week. They should: (pic)
  • @kylenabecker
  • @BretWeinstein
  • At what point is it fair to conclude that our government has been captured by something hostile to the Republic and its citizens? FEMA is literally claiming it doesn't have the money to manage an emergency. Military helicopter crews are grounded. Civilians with helicopters are ordered not to intervene. Same vibe as Maui and Katrina. Feels like we're there.
  • @amuse
  • @GardensR4Health
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @TulsiGabbard
  • @ErinSlankers8
  • @KDORR_USA
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 61.25 -1.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 110.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.3%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.7 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 62.7 +3.7%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 -.02%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.
  • S&P 500 futures -.04%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.