Saturday, November 16, 2024

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:
Barron's:
  • Had bullish commentary on (NVDA), (VRT), (ORCL) and (SMPL).

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:

NewsMax:     

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • America’s 250th anniversary is on July 4, 2026. DOGE will deliver our nation the birthday gift of a government that’s actually accountable to its people, rather than the other way around. Yes. (video)
  • The sheer magnitude of government waste is staggering to behold! (pic)
  • #BucksCounty Democrat Commissioners violate the rule of law and ignore PA Supreme Court ruling! Democrat Commissioners Diane Marseglia and Bob Harvie voted today to count illegal ballots, against PA Supreme Court ruling, in an attempt to aid former Senator Bob Casey. "...precedent by a court doesn't matter anymore in this country. And people violate laws anytime they want. For me if I violate this law, it's because I want a court to pay attention to it." - Diane Marseglia. They are openly trying to count illegal ballots in Pennsylvania! Unreal …
  • @nicksortor
  • @TheChiefNerd
  • Rob Baron Says Elon Musk Will Bring the Efficiency of Tesla & SpaceX to the U.S. Government. “The government wanted to send people back and forth to the International Space Station…So they gave two contracts — one to Boeing for $4.3B and a year later to SpaceX for $2.1B. SpaceX has since been back and forth 40 times. Boeing got there once and they couldn’t get their guys back. We had to go rescue them…Get rid of cost-plus contracts.” (video)
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @AmericanHubener
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @CharlieKNews
  • EricLDaugh
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @JohnLeFevre
  • @Jessica_4_Trump
  • @MarioNawful
  • @amuse
  • @ProudElephantUS
  • @DC_Draino
  • @RealSKeshel
  • @newstart_2024
  • @VigilantFox
  • @TheThe1776
  • Candace Owens on Matt Gaetz telling the truth: “He absolutely must be confirmed and they’re freaking out… He’s gonna have access to the file when we were investigating him and by the way we didn’t find anything…. This is an insane pick, why on earth would they allow him in. Yeah, because you realized that he is someone who you’re not gonna be able to flip into one of your allies because you attempted to ruin his life and to ruin his reputation. And this is exactly the kinds of picks that we need.. I need someone who has a chip on their shoulder about the DOJ.”
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • FEMA official who was fired for skipping homes with Trump signs says they’re allowed to pass over homes if they “feel uncomfortable” and compares Trump homes to vicious dogs. (video)
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @listen_2learn
  • @HustleBitch_
  • @KanekoaTheGreat
  • @toobaffled
  • Proof They Wanted Mass Death During the COVID Plandemic: They Purchased 35K Ventilators, and Not 35K Feeding Tubes. "How many people on ventilators threw blood clots in their legs because we didn't get them a blood thinner...or sequential compression devices? ... We didn't do that and we wondered why people started throwing clots." Nurse, whistleblower, and founder of American Frontline Nurses Nicole Sirotek describes for Peter Santilli how she witnessed hospital staff neglecting patients put on ventilators for COVID. Sirotek says that the mistreatment led to people developing blood-clotting issues and perforated bowels, and even dying from starvation. (video)
  • @Julie_Kelly2
  • @LeoTheLion1964
  • @IGSquawk 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:

Friday, November 15, 2024

Stocks Lower into Close on Powell's Post-Election Hawkishness, Tamped Down Runaway US Government Spending Expectations, Forthcoming US Healthcare Corruption Crackdown, Pharma/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +13.2%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .68 -8.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 -3.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.3 -.75%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 -1.1%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.5 +19.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -21.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .94 +4.4%
  • NYSE Arms .85 -11.5%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$184.5M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.7 +1.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 319.8 +2.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 194 +2
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.38 +1.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 159.99 +1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.26 +1.3%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 168.0 +1.7%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 132.85 +1.7%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -26.5 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 155.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 684.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.09%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.53%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.6 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 43.3 +4.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.3 -.1 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.1 +2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(462 of 500 reporting) +6.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.63 +.26:  Growth Rate +15.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 378.29 +.56: Growth Rate +32.9% -.3 percentage point, P/E 32.1 -1.0
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.07 -7.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.62 +15.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 12.5 basis point (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.53% +8.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 31.5% -.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.71% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 53.0%(-5.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 38.6%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -601 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +68 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my financial/utility sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
  • Market Exposure: 25% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BRC)/1.10
  • (TWST)/-.71
After the Close: 
  • (ACM)/1.24
  • (BRBR)/.50
  • (SYM)/.05
  • (TCOM)/6.93
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • The NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for Nov.

10:00 am EST

  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Nov. is estimated to fall to 42.0 versus 43.0 in Oct.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Sept.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Goolsbee speaking, (NKE) investor day, (VRT) investor meeting, Stephens Investment Conference, Stifel Healthcare Conference, Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference, Needham Infra/Data Analytics Software/Could Communications Conference and the Jefferies Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +22.9% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.4 -5.6
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 32.2% of Issues Advancing, 66.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .65 -27.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$103.1M
  • 98 New 52-Week Highs, 54 New Lows
  • 57.3% (-2.7%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 51.0 -6.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.3 -3.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 245.4 -1.0%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,046.6 -1.8%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 49.0 (GREED) -4.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.0 +8.4%
  • Vix 17.1 +19.4%
  • Total Put/Call .97 +7.8%

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.5 +.75 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 63.5 +.75 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.8 +1.8%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.7 +1.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.41%
  • S&P 500 futures -.36%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.55%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close Lower on Powell's Post-Election Hawkishness, Tamped Down Government Spending Worries, Profit-Taking, Healthcare/Defense Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.7 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.51% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 46.2 euros/megawatt-hour +5.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.7 +.4 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.4 -1.7 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -1.0 +.4 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(461 of 500 reporting) +6.8% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.37 +.04:  Growth Rate +15.2% +1.2 percentage points, P/E 22.2 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.60% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +25.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 377.73 +.24: Growth Rate +33.2% +.6 percentage point, P/E 33.1 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.14 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +7.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 7.75 basis point (2s/10s) -9.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.45% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.4% +.7 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% +2.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.71% +15.0 basis points.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th FOMC meeting: 54.0%(-7.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for March 19th meeting: 40.8%(+9.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.5-4.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +425 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -77 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower:  On losses in my industrial/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long