Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +2.7% 2) I-Banks +1.4% 3) Shipping +1.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• ACHR, BTDR, SMLR, SKYT, LUNR, HUT, RCAT, INSW, RGTI, DQ, MSTR, QNST, SCHL, NNE, DAVE, CLW, CLMT, PPTA, OKLO, OUST, ZIM, ALAB, TSLA, RDW, FORM, ARM, BCAT, OUST, ATAT, TRMD, BNED and MEOH
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TTIE 2) PRMW 3) FREY 4) LITM 5) ESSC

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CMND 2) NEUE 3) BTCS 4) CREV 5) IONQ
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) SMH 3) XLP 4) XLY 5) XLK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Thursday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 223K versus 220K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1881K versus 1874K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• (CRVL) 3-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA mortgage applications report and the Fed's weekly balance sheet report could also impact global trading on Thursday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -25.2% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 21.8 +5.3
  
• 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
• 58.4% of Issues Advancing, 39.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .71 -7.8%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$90.2M
  
• 26 New 52-Week Highs, 75 New Lows
• 52.8% (+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 +8.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.0 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 254.6 +.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 22,291.9 +.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 33.0 (FEAR) +6.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 9.9 -26.1%
  
• Vix 15.9 -5.3%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.07 +17.6%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 unch.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 100.2 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.1 +.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.0 -.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a.

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.11%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the close, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Seasonal Strength, Technical Buying, Tech/Healthcare Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 45.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.1 -5.1 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -2.2 +3.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.1 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(19 of 500 reporting) +21.2% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 271.0 +.15:  Growth Rate +13.5% unch., P/E 22.0 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.55% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 387.02 +.34: Growth Rate +23.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.8 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .61 +23.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.40 +23.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 24.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +3.08% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.7% -.5 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.87% unch.: CPI YoY +2.86% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 +3.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 54.9% (+7.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 46.1%(+2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +134 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +215 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/industrial/financial/utility sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gambling -1.4% 2) Digital Health -.8% 3) Computer Services -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• ARM, SPTN, IIPR, PPTA and SOUN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RUM 2) APA 3) TLRY 4) IHRT 5) FTAI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TCSG 2) APLT 3) ZETA 4) FLUX 5) BIOA
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLY 2) KOMP 3) QTEC 4) XAR 5) XSD

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume