Friday, February 14, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 6,117.7 +1.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 44,571.5 +.6%
  • NASDAQ 20,007.5 +2.5%
  • Russell 2000 2,281.9 +.07%
  • NYSE FANG+ 14,022.6 +2.9%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 206.4 +1.3%
  • Wilshire 5000 60,799.0 +1.4%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,187.3 +1.9%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,915.99 +.8%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 900.6 +2.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 249.1 -.8%
  • NYSE Technology 5,936.4 +4.7%
  • Transports 16,578.4 +2.7%
  • Utilities 1,010.0 +1.3%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 130.2 +1.7%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 44.3 +2.2%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 219.2 +.7%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 117.0 +.4%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 541,197 +.04%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +114.5%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 574 +237
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -28.6 +6.3%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 230,313 -12.8%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,765,342 -.96%
  • Total Put/Call .82 -12.5%
  • OEX Put/Call .80 unch.
  • ISE Sentiment 198.0 +19.0 points
  • NYSE Arms 1.36 +95.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 76.5 unch.
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -18.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 15.0 -10.3%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .31 -76.8%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 12.1 -10.2%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.1 -6.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.0 -3.7%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 20,840.3 +.46%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  75.6 -9.2
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.923 Trillion +.08%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$5.997 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 28.4 -14.7%
  • AAII % Bears 47.3 +10.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) +2.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 313.19 +1.9%
  • Crude Oil 70.8/bbl. -.38%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 209.1 -.71%
  • Natural Gas 3.74 +13.0%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.7 euros/megawatt-hour -9.5%
  • Heating Oil 246.2 +1.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 106.3 (1,000/metric ton) -6.1%
  • Gold 2,884.0 +.8%
  • Silver 32.4 +1.4%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 456.7 +1.7%
  • Copper 466.10 +1.4%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 359.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.83%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -2.0%
  • CME Lumber  612.50 +3.0%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,527.7 +2.3%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 295.0 USD/Short Ton +1.7%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.34% -60.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.7% -.3 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.49 +4.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 238.4 -59.1%
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(384 of 500 reporting) +10.4% -2.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.99 +.78:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.3 percentage point, P/E 22.2 +.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.81% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.53 +1.67: Growth Rate +30.8% +.5 percentage point, P/E 34.6 +.9
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -3.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.0 +10.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 -7.3 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 2.5%(-5.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 97.5%(+5.5 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 3/19
  • US Dollar Index 106.69 -1.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,740.1 +.15%
  • Bitcoin/USD 98,427.8 +3.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 178.75 +2.3%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 22.25 +1.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.47% -2.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.768 Trillion +.04%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.199 Billion -7.7%
  • Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.195 Billion +.04%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.0 -2.2%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 207.3 -1.8%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 -1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 20.4 -8.4%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.55 -18.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 166.6 -4.0%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 87.7 +3.4%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 29.7 -9.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.96 +.36%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 116.43 +1.80%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.1% +10.0 basis points
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% +14.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.81% -4.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.98% +35.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -.5 basis point +.5 basis point
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 +.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -.75 unch.
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 46.8 -3.7%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 179.0 -1.3
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 180.0 -2.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 56.3 -5.2%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 137.2 -3.5%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 150.6 -4.6%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 132.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 602.0 -2.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .46 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,258.8B +3.2%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 216,000 -.46%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 54.1 -.17%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.93% -1.0 basis point
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 230,000 +2.3%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.3% +55.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -74.0% -77.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $87.5M -23.1%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.17/gallon +.03/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 780.0 -4.3%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,095.1/40 ft Box -5.4%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,387.0 -2.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 +13.3%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 59.1 +14.5%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 284,056 -2.6%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,560,756 +40.0%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +1.9%
Worst Performing Style
  •  Small-Cap Growth -.3%
Leading Sectors
  • Gambling +10.0%
  • Computer Hardware +9.7%
  • Video Gaming +5.3%
  • Digital Health +4.3%
  • Telecom +4.2%
Lagging Sectors
  • Airlines -1.5%
  • Pharma -1.7%
  • Networking -1.7%
  • Defense -3.9%
  • Construction -4.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (69)
  • UDMY, KC, MNMD, ABNB, CAE, ROKU, BEAM, PCOR, CRSP, BILI, ELME, DNA, WYNN, PONY, SMCI, NTLA, NMRK, HIMX, TSSI, ARCT, ANAB, DAVE, LC, BFAM, TEM, NBIS, LEG, AL, DXCM, AUR, GDS, FROG, TME, TDOC, BHF, CE, VRNA, LIND, EHTH, THS, ALGM, JD, CWST, HTHT, SOFI, PPC, W, BABA, WTTR, SONY, WMG, STLA, GME, PDD, HWM, FLUT, MRTN, BZ, EQH, BAM, CVNA and DELL
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (30)
  • CGNX, RDDT, FWONK, KRG, STAA, PG, DDOG, AEM, CC, MGA, MSI, KTOS, LULU, CLBT, FRT, IR, YELP, AMAT, HCC, DRS, DVA, CLW, SA, TWLO, GDDY, VERA, INFA, SOUN and SERV
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, Higher Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Financial/Gambling Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.08%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 105.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 50.7 euros/megawatt-hour -1.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.5 -5.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.0 +2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.6 +.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(384 of 500 reporting) +10.4% -.6 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.99 +.05:  Growth Rate +16.0% unch., P/E 22.2 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.81% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.53 +.20: Growth Rate +30.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 34.6 +.3
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .83 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.60 -10.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 21.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% -60.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.7% +2.5 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.81% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 79.5% (-4.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 48.7%(-10.9 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -9 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +73 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +57 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BIDU)/14.37
  • (BLKB)/1.06
  • (EXPD)/1.43
  • (FLR)/.78
  • (GPC)/1.55
  • (MDT)/1.36
  • (VMI)/3.63
  • (VC)/1.96
  • (VMC)/1.76
After the Close: 
  • (ANET)/.57
  • (CDNS)/1.82
  • (CYH)/.08
  • (DVN)/1.00
  • (FLS)/.77
  • (OXY)/.68
  • (FOUR)/1.14
  • (TOL)/2.04
  • (ETR)/.64
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Empire Manufacturing for Feb. is estimated to rise to 0.0 versus -12.6 in Jan.

10:00 am EST

  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Feb. is estimated at 47.0 versus 47.0 in Jan.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Dec.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Harker speaking(Mon.), Fed's Bowman speaking(Mon.), Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, (J) investor day, (FOUR) investor day, (COIN) investor meeting, (POWL) annual meeting, Citi Industrial Tech/Mobility Conference, (HI) annual meeting and the Barclays Industrial Select Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Thursday, February 13, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @elonmusk   
  • @catturd2
  • THEY LIED: COVID NOW OFFICIALLY LESS DEADLY THAN THE FLU—JUST LIKE "CONSPIRACY THEORISTS" SAID ALL ALONG! It was never about public health—it was about control. The CDC’s latest data confirms it: COVID-19 now has a LOWER mortality rate than seasonal flu. Yet, for years, governments locked us down, destroyed businesses, and forced experimental vaccines on millions. Why? To panic the population. To push an agenda. To coerce as many people as possible into taking their shots. We tried to warn everyone but we were called grandma killers and horse paste eaters. We were right about everything.
  • @Sultanknish
  • How USAID laundered $1.7 Billion to the Taliban. In 2021, the Taliban's bank, controlled by the 'financier of bomb' whose IEDs killed over 1,000 US soldiers showed off millions of dollars in hundred-dollar bills flown in by plane. USAID/State Department denied responsibility.
  • @zerohedge
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @JoshuaSteinman
  • @nicksortor
  • @WideAwakeMedia
  • @LaraLogan
  • @MarioNawful
  • IRON DOME FOR AMERICA: SDA ACCELERATES MISSILE DEFENSE SATELLITE NETWORK. The U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) is rapidly aligning its Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture (PWSA) with the Trump administration’s "Iron Dome for America" initiative, aimed at defending against hypersonic and ballistic missile threats. A new industry call seeks input on integrating SDA’s satellite network into the system, with a 60-day study contract set for award.
  • @BennyJohnson
  • @5149jamesLi
  • @WarClandestine
  • Wow… Trump just accused Biden of starting the war in Ukraine!  For decades, Russia have been clear that NATO membership for Ukraine was a hard red line, yet Biden pushed for membership anyways, provoking Russia. The Deep State are responsible for this war, not Russia. (video)
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @charliebiello
  • Price Increases over last 4 years... CPI Medical Care: +9.1% CPI Apparel: +9.3% CPI New Cars: +19.0% CPI Used Cars: +21.5% CPI Food at home: +23.2% CPI Shelter: +24.7% CPI Food away from home: +25.0% CPI Electricity: +29.6% CPI Gas Utilities: +33.6% CPI Gasoline: +34.9% US Home Prices: +39.4% CPI Transportation: +43.5% CPI Fuel Oil: +44.6% CPI Auto Insurance: +60.9% CPI Dozen Eggs: +238%.
  • @chadwick_moore
  • @its_The_Dr
  • @DineshDSouza
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 46.0 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 108.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.7%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.4 -.7%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.3 +.04%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.33%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.12%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Plunging Long-Term Rates, Rising Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Diminishing Tariff Worries, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 +.43%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.08%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.4 euros/megawatt-hour -7.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.9 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.1 +3.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.0 -1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(370 of 500 reporting) +11.0% -.5 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.94 +.14:  Growth Rate +16.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.80% -6.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 404.33 -.24: Growth Rate +30.7% unch., P/E 34.3 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .81 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.70 +2.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 21.5 basis points (2s/10s) -5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.94% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.2% -1.5 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.81% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 85.2% (-4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 58.9%(-7.4 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +24 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/financial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +4.5% 2) Gambling +3.3% 3) Video Gaming +2.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • CSAI, GRAL, SOC, BROS, HIMS, CRSR, CROX, APP, PGY, DNOW, ROOT, PZZA, INOD, IRDM, TEM, ANAB, GEL, ASND, HIMX, SERV, GRRR, HOOD, MTW, SMMT, LECO, MYGN, PTON, ASTS, INTC, OGN, EEFT, ZETA, AEIS, GEHC, WFRD, SCI, WGS, CZR, U, IAC, BKSY, CYBR, EHTH, TAP, SMCI, RIOT, COIN, TDOC, UNFI, NVMI, BNTX, CEVA, TYL, TECX, VTR, UPWK, PBI, TRU, CHEF, BILI, SW, ALKS, AM, EC, SONY, HCSG, HUBS, CVS, GMAB, FCX, THC, KSPI, EXEL, SHOO, ARM, PHR, EOLS, HRMY, CLF, WMB, RGLD, ES, TSLA, ADTN, MCY, TSEM, SHOP, HTHT, ALB, BAM, QDEL, CPNG, ST, CAR, QDEL, BIIB, BXMT, ST, MCO, TGS, ROL, ATHM, BWIN and QFIN
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) TTD 2) BROS 3) PZZA 4) APP 5) CRSR
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) BROS 2) APP 3) HOOD 4) MGM 5) CROX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLC 2) MSTY 3) SMH 4) IGF 5) XLK
Charts: