Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for March is estimated to fall to 140K versus 151K in Feb.
• The Unemployment Rate for March is estimated at 4.1% versus 4.1% in Feb.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +76.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.3 -12.6
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 13.6% of Issues Advancing, 85.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.05 +18.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$198.6M
  
• 50 New 52-Week Highs, 511 New Lows
• 29.1% (-21.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.3 -10.9

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.0 -9.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 224.5 -4.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,084.2 -1.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 10.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -7.0
• 1-Day Vix 25.9 -2.9%
  
• Vix 28.3 +31.5%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.19 +25.3%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.75 +7.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 53.5 +2.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 66.3 +.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 22.0 +10.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -1.9%.

• S&P 500 futures -2.9%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -3.6%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open sharply lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Dollar Weakness, Short-Covering, Consumer Discretionary/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.03%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 41.3 euros/megawatt-hour -2.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.8 +3.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 11.7 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.1 -.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.48 +.04:  Growth Rate +13.5% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.3 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.61 +.15: Growth Rate +21.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.1 +.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .08 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +6.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 28.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -3.7% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.7% unch.

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 57.6% (-4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 44.0%(+6.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -36 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +176 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/utility/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long
  

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AYI)/3.69
• (CAG)/.52
• (LW)/.86
• (LNN)/1.89
• (MSM)/.68
  

After the Close: 

• (GES)/1.37
• (APOG)/.88
  

Economic Releases

7:30 am EST

• Challenger Job Cuts YoY for March.

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Deficit for Feb. is estimated at --123.5B versus -$131.4B in Jan.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 225K versus 224K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1870K versus 1856K prior.
  

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US PMI readings for March.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Services Index for March is estimated to fall to 52.9 versus 53.5 in Feb.
• ISM Prices Paid for March is estimated to rise to 63.1 versus 62.6 in Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, OPEC meeting, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report and the JPMorgan Retail Round Up Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -14.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 22.9 +7.6
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 56.9% of Issues Advancing, 40.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .94 -23.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$300.9M
  
• 20 New 52-Week Highs, 86 New Lows
• 35.9% (+1.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 47.2 +1.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.2 -.4%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.6 +.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,379.6 +.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 17.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -1.0
• 1-Day Vix 23.3 +16.3%
  
• Vix 21.9 +.7%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 +3.3%