Stocks Close Lower on Trump/Musk Feud, Rising "Big Beautiful Bill" Passage Uncertainty, Technical Selling, Gambling/Shipping Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.15 +.15% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.40% +4.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 95.7 USD/Metric Tonne +.84%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.7 -3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 27.3 +2.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.6 +.9 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(496 of 500 reporting) +12.4% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.98 +.12:  Growth Rate +9.0% unch., P/E 21.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.25% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +32.4% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 429.0 +.25: Growth Rate +14.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.2 +.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 -4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.47 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 7.1 -.3
• US Yield Curve 46.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.8% -8.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.8% +2.8 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.65% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.77 -3.0 basis points
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 69.2% (-1.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 55.4%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -141 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -69 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +33 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.2% 2) Gambling -1.2% 3) Restaurants -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• KNTK, LTH, CNTA, MLTX, BULL, LEU, DOCN, PAY, ACIC, DSGX, LZMH, TSLA, CIEN, DXYZ, PVH, BF/B and CRWV

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BYON 2) DOCU 3) LULU 4) IOT 5) AG

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) TSLA 2) CHPT 3) BF/B 4) CIEN 5) PC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) FTEC 2) SOXX 3) PNQI 4) XLK 5) IAI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.7% 2) Software +1.3% 3) I-Banks +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NBIS, MDB, SMG, OSCR, ARLO, SATS, CYD, MP, KC, AGX, CAPR, SRRK, DLTR, PAAS, OSK, NCLH, LASR, PRCT, DOMO, CRMD, RDY, CC, COO, MGNI, GDS, MGNI, BWLP, RKT, MAG, TSCO, NET, STAA, FIVE, TIC, COOP, BLD, LQDA, MU, BLD, RDFN, STAA, JEF, VRNT, INOD, RDW, GTLB, SOFI, JHX, BROS, TIC, BV, CRSP, GAP, LITE, SA, SSRM, XYF, CFLT and PAX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) PL 2) CIVI 3) ASTL 4) MDB 5) VEEV

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PL 2) NBIS 3) ARLO 4) JYNT 5) MDB

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) XLB 4) SMH 5) XLY

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABM)/.86
• (GIII)/.13 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for May is estimated to fall to 125K versus 177K in April.
• The Unemployment Rate for May is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in April.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in April. 

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for April is estimated to fall to $10.0B versus $10.172B in March. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, CFTC weekly speculative net positioning reports, FBN Virtual Tech Conference, (JOBY) annual meeting, (GOOG) annual meeting and the (GRMN) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +8.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.2 -1.6
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 63.5% of Issues Advancing, 34.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .97 -41.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$118.1M
  
• 71 New 52-Week Highs, 11 New Lows
• 41.8% (+2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.3 +.1

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.9 -.44%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.4 +.03%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,456.4 +.02%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 60.0 (GREED) +5.0
• 1-Day Vix 14.7 +21.0%
  
• Vix 17.5 -.9%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -8.3%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• FOX News comments is a great place to understand conservative views since they get so much traffic—i was curious what the people were saying about Elon shit-talking the BBB and i'm shocked almost every comment is in agreement with Elon—to see so many vehemently disagreeing with Trump is wild. GOP better be reeeeaaal careful. 
• A million seconds ago was May 23rd A billion seconds ago was 1993 A trillion seconds ago was 30,000 B.C. The US national debt is now rising by $1 Trillion every 180 days. This immense level of overspending will drive America into debt slavery! (video)
• 77 million Americans voted for DOGE cuts NOT Washington's wasteful spending.

• @ZeroHedge

• Los Angeles Passes New $30 Minimum Wage For Hotel And Airport Workers.
• Coming To America: Syrian Islamist Leader Sharaa Will Speak At UN.
• Highest short interest since 2018... (graph)
• *THUNE: NOT A SINGLE REPUBLICAN SENATOR CARES ABOUT SALT.
• An Ob-Gyn in Iowa writes about the gender affirming hysterectomies she carried out. And why she’s now concerned: ‘I was curious about whether detransition was more common than we thought. I found my way to Hannah Barnes’s excellent book, Time to Think’.
• *APPLE LOSES BID TO HALT JUDGE'S ORDER ON CHANGES TO APP STORE.
• Who Really Are The Lawless & The Dictatorial?
• Beige Book Finds US Economy Diverging By Party Lines, No Trace Of Runaway Inflation. (graph)
• Bond Yields & Dollar Plunge As 'Bad' Data Sparks Surge In Rate-Cut Hopes.

• @MarioNawful  

• ELON: ALL FEDERAL SPENDING IS TAXATION. "A very important point that I think is important for people to understand is that all federal spending is taxation. Because what the federal government doesn't receive in direct revenue, they make up for in inflation. They just print money. So all federal spending is taxation. Very important principle. 
• COURT BLOCKS TRUMP FROM GUTTING THE EDUCATION DEPARTMENT. Trump promised to shut it down. His team fired 1,300+ staff. But today, a federal appeals court said: not so fast. Judge’s ruling: You can’t kill a government agency Congress created without Congress. Now, the Education Department has to reinstate everyone Trump tried to axe. Trump’s next stop? The Supreme Court, again. Shutdown dreams… on hold.
• BREAKING: TRUMP ORDERS INVESTIGATION INTO BIDEN'S MENTAL STATE COVERUP AND AUTOPEN SCANDAL. Trump just directed AG Pam Bondi to investigate whether Biden's aides conspired to deceive Americans about his mental capacity and illegally wielded presidential powers. The investigation will examine:
• TRUMP: WE HAVE THE HOTTEST, MOST TALKED ABOUT COUNTRY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD. "Six months ago, we had a nation that was as cold as ice. It was cold. The whole world was laughing at us, and they're not laughing anymore. That I can tell you now because of the people here tonight, we have the hottest, most talked about country anywhere in the world." (video)
• SENATOR THUNE: FAILURE'S NOT AN OPTION ON THE BILL. "We're a long ways down this track. We've had like 18 different meetings now with the Senate Finance Committee, and we're committed to making a law that will make the lives of the American people better. The wheels are in motion. Failure's not an option. We will get this done one way or the other." (video)
• GOOGLE JUST SIGNED A DEAL TO BUILD A DATA SUPERCABLE ACROSS THE PACIFIC. First cable ever in the South Pacific. 9,200 miles long, from Chile straight to Australia, with Asia in the crosshairs. It's a $550 million project, and ready by 2027. Chile’s pitch? Become the digital hub for Latin America. Boost TikTok speeds, and link mining giants in Chile & Australia with shared command centers. Oh, and it just happens to drop a massive piece of U.S.-China tech rivalry right into Latin America. 
• CHINESE HACKERS WERE INSIDE A U.S. TELECOM LONGER THAN ANYONE KNEW. New report says Beijing-backed hackers cracked into a major U.S. telecom in summer 2023, and hid there for 7 months. Apparently corporate investigators found malware deep inside the system, meaning the breach happened earlier than previously believed. 7 months. Sitting there. Watching. Listening. Cyberwar’s not coming, it’s already in here.  

• @LauraLoomer 

• JUST IN: Judge Gordon Gallagher, a Biden appointed judge, just blocked Muslim Brotherhood terrorist Mohamed Soliman’s family from being deported. They are not US citizens, and it was revealed that he told his family he wanted to commit jihad and they didn’t stop him. This judge is trying to keep jihadi supporters on US soil to possibly attack US citizens in acts of Islamic terrorism. Treason. (pic)

• @TheTranscript 

• $NVDA CFO: "GAAP gross margins and non-GAAP gross margins were 60.5% and 61%, respectively. Excluding the $4.5 billion charge, Q1 non-GAAP gross margins would have been 71.3%, slightly above our outlook at the beginning of the quarter. " (graph)

• @GenFlynn

• ATTENTION! I do not believe that the recent escalation against Russia's strategic bomber fleet was authorized by or coordinated with President Trump. Rather, it is my view that the Deep State is now acting outside of the control of the elected leadership of our nation. I believe that these persons inside (some outside) our Deep State are engaged in a deliberate effort to provoke Russia into a major confrontation with the West, including the United States. The time is now to take aggressive action against those who abuse their authority as government employees to manipulate the elected leadership of our nation. I’ll have much more to say very soon. Intelligence doesn’t sleep, it develops.

• @IanJaeger29

• BREAKING: Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs vetoes a bill preventing China from buying land near US military bases.

• @VigilantFox

• DISTURBING: Trump Taps Palantir to Build a Master Surveillance System—And DOGE Helped Open the Door. President Trump has enlisted Palantir Technologies to build a massive, cross-agency database tracking every American citizen. This isn’t just government overreach—it’s the blueprint for a digital dragnet. Trump’s executive order called for unprecedented data sharing between federal agencies. Now, Palantir’s “Foundry” platform is being embedded in DHS, HHS, and the IRS—giving the government access to everything from your bank accounts and medical records to social media activity and more. It gets worse.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.0 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 50.0 -.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 94.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.69%.
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.77 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.13%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.4 +.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.37% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 +.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.07%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher .  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.