Sunday, December 28, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ.com
  • @MarioNawful
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @GenFlynn
  • @TheSCIF
  • @TaraBull
  • @XFreeze
  • You literally can’t find a single mainstream article about the Minnesota fraud... Not even one... How is it that a simple guy with a camera can uncover over $110,000,000 in fraud in a single day, but giant billion‑dollar media organizations behind the glass doors somehow “miss” it for years? It’s not that they couldn’t find it. It’s that they wouldn’t They are desperate to bury this, protect their ideological allies, and smear anyone who exposes how rotten the system is with “it’s not as bad as it looks” think‑pieces or by turning it into a race‑based narrative to shut people up. This is as clear as it gets in broad daylight The story isn’t just the fraud... The story is the massive cover‑up.... (pic)
  • @lsferguson
  • @Real_RobN
  • @RenzTom
  • @Peoples_Pundit
  • @amuse
  • @DataRepublican
  • @ScottPresler
  • @ValerieAnne1970
  • @redpilldispensr
  • @ToscaAusten
  • @Highway_30
  • @realdefender45
  • @Sassafrass_84
  • @KariKake
  • Watch and share. This used to get you banned & your account cancelled. Not anymore, thanks to @elonmusk. (video)
  • @C_3C_3
  • @JovanHPulitzer
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.5 unch.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.75 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 106.10 USD/Metric Tonne +1.4%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.88 +.01% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.18 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 98.2 +.9%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.14% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.40% unch. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.8 -.1%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%.
  • S&P 500 futures -.06%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.08%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (AMZN), (BE), (CRWV), (NVDA), (GEV), (AVGO) and (CRM).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @WSJ
  • @CNBC  
  • @MarioNawfal
  • HOUSE OF MAXWELL: THE BACKSTORY THAT MAKES EPSTEIN MAKE SENSE. House of Maxwell digs into the origins of Ghislaine Maxwell and her father Robert, but the picture is anything but ordinary. Robert wasn’t just a media tycoon; he was deeply enmeshed in intelligence circles, political power, and shadowy financial networks across multiple countries. Those connections didn’t disappear with his death, as they became the ecosystem Ghislaine operated in for decades. This matters because the Epstein saga didn’t appear out of thin air; it grew inside long-standing elite networks built on access, leverage, and silence. If you don’t understand the Maxwell background, the protection, privilege, and unanswered questions around Epstein make no sense. (video)
  • UNREDACTED JFK FILE REVEALS CIA'S TOP SPY RAN PROJECTS WITH ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE. A previously redacted JFK assassination record reveals CIA officer James Jesus Angleton's direct connection to Israeli intelligence. The document states CIA Directors permitted Angleton "to run several intelligence projects, many of them with the Israeli Intelligence Service." He reported only to the Director and had authority to disseminate information to the FBI on "all matters of interest." According to Wikileaks, this file was "released" in 2017, 2018, and 2022, but always with this section redacted. Now it's out. 
  • @TheSCIF
  • @GenFlynn
  • @NicHulsher
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @RenzTom
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • @GerryCallahan
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @MattVanswol
  • If I ran a publicly traded company and it was discovered that 50% of ALL investors funds were fraudulently funneled to fake daycares and fake hospitals to send money to foreign countries… …I would be in prison TOMORROW. So can someone explain why isn’t Tim Walz in prison?
  • @WallStreetApes 
  • Beverly Hills TV Doctor Sheila Nazarian has a warning for America. “I wanna beg the American people for something. I am an Iranian — My family escaped on the back of a pickup truck under gunfire in 1985-1986, and made it, thank God, to this amazing country. In Iran, it started the same way. It started on the college campuses. It was the Islamists joining hands with the leftists. Same thing as it's happening here. And I want to give you a warning. —-You need to speak up, we need to take our country back and take it back to the Judeo-Christian values it was founded on. Because if we don't stop it in the tracks, look at what's happening to Europe. Look at what's happened many other places all over the world. The time is now to speak up to protect our country, to protect the justice and the rights that you love and you appreciate in this country. The time is now.” “Sympathy towards these people is appeasement and a sign of weakness, and it's not going to stop them”. (video)
  • @NickSortor
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @Tarabull
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @LindaKe74197084
  • Mike Benz released a MONSTER 4-hour video detailing Epstein's origin. Here are 6 clips I think you'll find interesting. @MikeBenzCyber: "We just broke the entire Jeffrey Epstein story." On each post I'm including the timestamps for the YouTube video at the end for full context of the topic. (video)
  • @Real_RobN
  • @LaraLogan
  • @drawandstrike
  • @RealSpitfire
  • @LangmanVince
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, December 26, 2025

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Precious Metal Surge, Technical Selling, Defense/Biotech Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.1 +.3%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 -1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.3 -2.0 basis points 
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.5 unch.
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 124.0 -.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 5.3 +.6 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.7 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.7 -2.0 points 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(16 of 500 reporting) +32.8% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 309.86 +.21:  Growth Rate +15.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.4 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.52% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 483.48 +.52: Growth Rate +17.7% +.2 percentage point, P/E 33.3 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.9 +.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .82 +2.0 basis points 
  • US Yield Curve 65.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +3.0% unch.
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 163.3 +1.9% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.4% +1.7 percentage points
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.13% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -3.0 basis points 
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 46.2% (-5.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 45.8%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -20 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +48 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +156 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth -.6%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Nuclear -1.2% 2) Airlines -.9% 3) Digital Health -.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CHA, ASTS, FLY, RGC and SUPX
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FIVN 2) IMO 3) XLV 4) PPLT 5) NUAI
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) FLY 2) KLAR 3) BTDR 4) STUB 5) OWL
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) KBWB 3) XRT 4) XLB 5) KRE

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver +1.4% 2) Steel +.9% 3) Healthcare Providers +.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FJET, ALMU, CPNG, XPEV, ZETA, SBSW, AUGO and AFJK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) PRMW 2) OSS 3) ZSL 4) GSIT 5) PLG 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) FCX 2) TGT 3) CDE 4) NVDA 5) NKE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) XLY 3) PAVE 4) SOXX 5) XBI
Charts: