Wednesday, February 25, 2026

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @TheTranscript 
  • $NVDA CFO on the Blackwell & Vera Rubin overlap: "As you think about the full year, we are absolutely going to be still selling and providing Blackwell probably at the same time that we're also seeing Vera Rubin come to market. This is a very great architecture that helps them.
  • $NVDA CEO when asked about confidence in hyperscalers continuing to grow CapEx: "I am confident in their cash flow growing, and the reason for that is very simple. We have now seen the inflection of agentic AI and the usefulness of agents across the world in enterprises everywhere you're seeing incredible compute demand because of it".
  • $NVDA CFO: "We shipped our first Vera Rubin samples to customers earlier this week, and we remain on track to commence production shipments in the second half of the year." 
  • $NVDA CFO: "We believe we have inventory and supply commitments in place to address future demand, including shipments, extending into calendar 2027." 
  • $NVDA FY26 Revenues by Platform: —Data Center: +68% YoY to $193.74B [now ~90% of total revenue].  • Compute: +59% YoY to $162.36B.  • Networking: +142% YoY to $31.38B. —Gaming: +41% YoY to $16.04B. —Professional Visualization: +70% YoY to $3.19B. —Automotive: +39% YoY to $2.35B. —OEM & Other: +59% YoY to $0.62B. 
  • Nvidia CEO: "Computing demand is growing exponentially — the agentic AI inflection point has arrived." $NVDA: +3% AH.
  • Snowflake CEO: "...another strong quarter with product revenue of $1.23B, up 30% Y/Y, and remaining performance obligations totaling $9.77B, up 42% Y/Y," $SNOW: -3% AH. 
  • Salesforce CEO @Benioff: "We delivered a phenomenal quarter to close out a record fiscal 2026." "Our performance makes us even more confident in our path to reaccelerate organic revenue growth in H2 FY27." $CRM: -4% AH. 
  • @MarioNawful
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @karma44921039 
  • @TheSCIF
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @MattKibbe
  • @Casebradford
  • @GeneralMCNews
  • @NotRadix
  • @Holden_Culotta
  • @JesseMatchey
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @seanmdav
  • @WallStMav
  • @goddek
  • @ArthurMacwaters
  • @HealthRanger
  • @RichardGrenell
  • @sayerjigmi
  • @War4theWest
  • 3 examples of horrible Trump endorsements: 1. Greg Abbott for TX governor instead of Doc Pete Chambers? Abbott collaborates with Democrats to run the Texas Statehouse. 2. Tony Gonzales instead of Brandon Herrera for congress, TX district. Gonzales had an affair with a young staffer who killed herself over it. 3. Byron Donalds for Florida governor. It's just been revealed that Donalds impregnated his current wife while married to his previous wife. None of these candidates are actual hard core MAGA. This is just an example of endorsements Trump has made of horrible candidates. I believe Susie Wiles is behind much of this.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.25 -.5 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.5 -.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%. 
  • Gold 5,209.2 USD/t oz. -.3%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 -.25%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.27 +.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 101.8 +.1%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.04% -1.0 basis point.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.38% -1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +.8%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.10%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.15%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.31%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modesty lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Earnings Outlook Optimism, US/Iran Nuclear Deal Hopes, Diminishing AI Industry Disruption Fears, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.5 -.8%
  • Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 +1.0 basis point
  • BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.03 -2.0 basis points
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.98 -.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 127.7 -1.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.9 +.6
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 29.0 unch.
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.4 -.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 33.2 -.1 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(451 of 500 reporting) +11.8% -.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 320.66 +.03:  Growth Rate +19.1% unch., P/E 21.6 +.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.51% -2.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +19.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 509.0 +.41: Growth Rate +23.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 28.5 +.6 point
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .58 +6.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 57.5 basis points (2s/10s) unch. 
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 172.8 +1.3% 
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 30.7% -.6 percentage point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +3.1% unch.
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.05% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.65 +7.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for April 29th FOMC meeting: 83.8% (+.4 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for June 17th meeting: 53.9%(+3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +1,090 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +18 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +70 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -2.8% 2) Foods -1.6% 3) Oil Services -1.4%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • JBTM, GLNG, LOW, LTH, BBIO, HLN, PARR, ALKS, SHOO, TEM, XPEL, OIS, HNI, MELI, CBLL, XMTR, CYTK, LQDA, CSGP, IBRX, LUNR, GDDY, TALO, VRRM, FSLR, DEO, MGPI, DRVN and ODD
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) UWMC 2) XLB 3) MET 4) LOW 5) CAVA
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) DRVN 2) MNKD 3) FSLR 4) TALO 5) ODD
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLK 2) SOXX 3) XLE 4) PLDR 5) XLU

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +1.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Computer Hardware +3.2% 2) Computer Services +3.2% 3) Software +3.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • RYAM, YOU, CRCL, ECG, NVCR, CAVA, NVTS, SGML, ACHC, CLDX, AXON, FIGR, PLAB, FRMI, COIN, VIR, MITK, REZI, AXTI, BMNR, JAZZ, FIG, UTHR, NTSK, TRI, FLYW, PSTG, HYMC, KLAR, TECX, HZO, BRCB, LAND, HSBC, AA, INFQ, COHR, CECO, VIAV, WDC, CLBT, IONQ, SLDE, BOW, PHAT, LITE, NFLX, SIMO, ETOR, FORM, THR, YELP, FROG, HOOD, OWL, AEHR, TREE, FEIM, ALKT, SUPN, RELX, ALB, BCAX, SNOW, FSS, SKT, VICR, PRVA, LASR, SAN, CEVA, CAMT, TASK, SOFI, FICO, CVI, ZGN, MORN, ABNB, HIMS, PLTR, CNNE, CSTM, CEG, GRAL, AMKR, SQM, INTU, DELL, SBSW, APO, GLOB, SBSW, APO, BMO, HURN, DAVE, WING, GSHD, AROC, HLNE, IBM, EVER, OFIX, ZS, ELAN, ARRY, SEI, ADMA, CRWD, GPGI, PCOR, MCY and ADP
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) UUP 2) LRMR 3) ODD 4) SNPS 5) MDLN 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RCKY 2) CRCL 3) YOU 4) CAVA 5) PLAB
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XBI 3) XLI 4) IGV 5) XLY
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ACMR)/.44
  • (BIDU)/9.69
  • (CARS)/.54
  • (LNG)/3.80
  • (DCI)/.89
  • (EME)/6.68
  • (FCN)/1.46
  • (HTZ)/-.52
  • (HRL)/.32
  • (SJM)/2.27
  • (DNUT)/.03
  • (PZZA)/.33
  • (PEG)/.71
  • (RYTM)/-.80
  • (SHAK)/.14
  • (TD)/1.66
  • (VST)/2.60
  • (WRBY)/.05
  • (WBD)/-.03
  • (WWW)/.44 
After the Close: 
  • (AMBA)/.10
  • (AAOI)/-.11
  • (ADSK)/2.64
  • (CRWV)/-.50
  • (CPNG)/.03
  • (DELL)/3.53
  • (DUOL)/.84
  • (FLUT)/1.89
  • (INTU)/3.68
  • (MTZ)/1.95
  • (MNST)/.48
  • (NTRA)/-.51
  • (NTAP)/2.06
  • (LASR)/.11
  • (SMR)/-.15
  • (RKLB)/-.10
  • (STRA)/1.41
  • (TLN)/2.62
  • (WULF)/-.13
  • (USAR)/-.16
  • (ZS)/.89 
Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 216K versus 206K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1858K versus 1869K prior. 

11:00 am EST

  • Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Feb. is estimated to rise to 2.0 versus 0.0 in Jan.

Upcoming Splits

  • (SF) 3-for-2
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bowman speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, BofA Animal Health Summit, Citi Unplugged Medtech/Life Sciences Access Day, (CG) business update call and the Bernstein TMT Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +1.4% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.5 +1.3
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 51.6% of Issues Advancing, 45.8% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.19 +21.4%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$168.1M
  • 187 New 52-Week Highs, 48 New Lows
  • 65.9% (-.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI61.5 +2.0
Polymarket: 
  • How long will the DHS shutdown last? 30+ days 69.0% +4.0 percentage points
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 10.0% unch.
  • US strikes Iran by March 15th 46.0% -2.0 percentage points 
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 101.3 +2.2%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 544.75 -10.75 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.1 +.4%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 138.8 +2.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +2.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.0 +2.4%
  • Vix 18.4 -6.0%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -13.1%