Sunday, May 10, 2026

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @MarioNawful 
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @OunkaOnX
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @RenzTom
  • @LaraLogan
  • @TheSCIF
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @VenkatP135
  • @disclosetv
  • @RedactedNews
  • @Real_RobN
  • @BrettWeinstein
  • @HealthRanger
  • @NicHulscher
  • @DiligentDenizen
  • @copesint
  • @jackprandelli
  • THE WORLD RUNS THROUGH 8 STRAITS. Trade, Oil, LNG, Military power. Key chokepoints: • Malacca ~25% of global traded goods. • Hormuz ~25% of global oil, ~⅓ of LNG. • Singapore ~50% of global seaborne trade. • Gibraltar Atlantic Mediterranean. • Bosphorus Black Sea outlet. • Magellan Atlantic Pacific backup. • Bering Arctic gateway. • Bass Australian passage. These are pressure points.
  • @RealDrJaneRuby
  • @HormuzLetter
  • @Oceanbreeze473
  • Kids that go missing everyyear: Spain 20,000. Australia 25,000. France 39,000. Brazil 40,000. Mexico 45,000. Canada 50,000. Germany 100,000. United Kingdom 230,000. United States 800,000.
  • @FurkanGozukara
  • @ForgiatoBlow47
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @catturd
  • Report: New polling shows that Bill Cassidy wouldn’t make the runoff in the 2026 Louisiana Senate Republican Primary. Julia Letlow: 41.6%. John Fleming: 29.6%. Bill Cassidy: 19.6%. Undecided: 7.5%. Mark Spencer: 1.7%. Another RINO is about to have to learn to code.
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 42.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 111.45 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%. 
  • Crude Oil 99.0/bbl. +3.8% 
  • Gold 4,694.2 USD/t oz. -.8%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.17%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.56 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 118.6 +.6%
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.39% +3.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.75% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -.2%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.07%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.10%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Saturday, May 09, 2026

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @Zerohedge 
  • @BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (GE) and (MELI).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • @redpillb0t
  • @MJTruthUltra
  • @SternDrewCrypto
  • @bennyjohnson
  • @MattWallace888
  • @GrageDustin
  • @Panchenko_X
  • Corruption in Ukraine. Daughter of the mayor of a ukrainian village bought a villa in Miami for $1,870,000. IN CASH. When journalists asked the mayor, he replied: “I’m glad my kids achieve everything through their own hard work.” Pattern - kids of ukrainian officials always more successful in the US than americans. During the war, the daughter of Ternopil mayor Serhiy Nadal - Anastasia - bought a villa in Miami at Hidden Palms, 7300 SW 77th Ave, for $1,870,000. Her father, a Ukrainian official, has been accused of corruption, shady land-sale schemes, garbage-export rackets, racketeering 50% of businesses, and multiple criminal cases. This is Zelensky’s mafia. They steal money from ordinary Ukrainians and buy luxury real estate all over the world.
  • @JonMFleetwood
  • @ElectionTime_
  • @SenseReceptor
  • @RedactedNews
  • @TaraBull
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Friday, May 08, 2026

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 7,401.1 +2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 49,564.5 +.2%
  • NASDAQ 26,190.7 +4.3%
  • Russell 2000 2,864.6 +1.8%
  • NYSE FANG+ 17,245.7 +5.0%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 296.9 +2.9%
  • Vaneck Social Sentiment 37.1 +8.2%
  • Wilshire 5000 73,064.1 +2.2%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,976.2 +2.9%
  • Russell 1000 Value 2,300.1 +1.3%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 952.5 +.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 258.13 +1.0%
  • NYSE Technology 8,939.0 +7.2%
  • Transports 20,203.8 -1.8%
  • Utilities 1,117.5 -3.4%
  • MSCI Europe Banks 117.9 +1.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 68.1 +6.6%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 254.6 -.3%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 132.9 +.3%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 613,891 +.24%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.4 +8.7%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,121 -3
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -19.8 +4.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 191,911 -.2%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,017,038 +1.6%
  • Total Put/Call .75 +1.3%
  • OEX Put/Call .13 -30.0%
  • ISE Sentiment 146.0 -12.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.55 +9.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 117.6 +.7%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.06 +16.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.16 +11.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.5 +3.2%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .50 -15.6%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 13.4 -11.9%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 6.75 -4.4%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.0 -1.3%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 19,928.7 -1.0%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  96.7 +2.5
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.749 Trillion +1.6%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$7.803 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 38.3 +.5%
  • AAII % Bears 33.0 -16.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (GREED) unch.
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 387.72 -1.9%
  • Crude Oil 95.10/bbl. -6.9%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 351.4 -3.1%
  • Natural Gas 2.75 -1.3%
  • US Power PJM Western Hub Peak Forward Y1 76.2 USD/Megawatt -.9% 
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 43.9 euros/megawatt-hour -3.6%
  • Heating Oil 388.4 -2.5% 
  • Newcastle Coal 135.2 (1,000/metric ton) -1.9%
  • Gold 4,725.4 +2.4%
  • Silver 80.6 +7.1%
  • Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index 181.1 +1.9%
  • Copper 630.1 +5.5%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 413.0 USD/Metric Tonne +2.0%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 110.4 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 25,450.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
  • inSpectrum Tech Inc. DRAM Spot DDR4 16Gb 2048Mx8 58.0 -2.4%  
  • CME Lumber 580.5 -.9%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,418.2 +1.1%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 337.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
  • US Gulf NOLA Urea Granular Spot 602.5 USD/Short Ton -6.1% 
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.7% +.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 17.3 -.2 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.7 -8.8%
  • Caldara Iacoviello Geopolitical Risk Index 178.7 +5.9% 
  • Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
  • Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed 99.0% +4.0 percentage points
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 273.2 -74.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.0 +.4
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $215.0 Billion($1,335.40 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(443 of 500 reporting) +25.3% -3.1 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 352.67 +5.20:  Growth Rate +27.3% +1.9 percentage points, P/E 20.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.38% +15.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +62.1% +.2 percentage point
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 851.66 +14.71: Growth Rate +115.1% +3.7 percentage points, P/E 19.8 +.4
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 36.7 +16.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -58.8 +12.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 49.6 +.7 point
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 6.1%(-.6 percentage point) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 3.25-3.5%, 93.9%(+.6 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 3.75-4.0% on 6/17
  • US Dollar Index 97.88 -.3%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,885.3 +1.0%
  • Bitcoin/USD 80,212.7 +1.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 210.4 +.3%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.75 unch.
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 46.75 -2.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.36% -2.0 basis points
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.74% -1.0 basis point
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.662 Trillion +.2%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $6.439 Billion +6.4%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 39.2 +2.5%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 188.5 -2.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 72.0 -10.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 18.8 -4.8%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 41.8 -5.1%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 117.7 -6.5%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 63.5 -6.5%
  • Dubai Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 77.6 -6.6%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.3 -11.0%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.23 +.5%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 113.61 +.6%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.7% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +1.7% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.28% unch.: CPI YoY +3.56% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.97 -27.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 -3.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 9.5 +8.25 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.25 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .75 +.75 basis point
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 53.0 -2.0% 
  • BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 75.9 -3.0%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 154.0 +47.9%
  • High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 469.0 -4.2% 
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 227.0 +9.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.3 -3.1%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 155.2 -2.3%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 112.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 579.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .51 unch.
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.6% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,430.3B +.5%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 203,250 -2.2%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 55.0 -.2%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.42% +7.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 285,300 -4.4%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +7.3% +20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +9.0% -5.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $200.7M +61.3%
  • Nationwide Gas $4.55/gallon +.16/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 3,034.0 +13.0%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,285.6/40 ft Box +3.1%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,2.8 +.7%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 250.0 +4.2%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 125.0 -3.3%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 283,724 +.7%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,701,890 +32.3% 
  • US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.7 -.1 point
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 42.0% -1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth +2.8%
Worst Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth +.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Computer Hardware +15.3%
  • Semis +10.6%
  • Airlines +10.5%
  • Cyber Security +9.1%
  • Gold & Silver +8.5%
Lagging Sectors
  • Medical Equipment -2.7%
  • Restaurants -3.0%
  • Utilities -3.4%
  • Oil Service -3.9%
  • Energy -4.9%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (108)
  • INOD, FLNC, RKLB, VCX, MRAM, FROG, PTCT, AMN, DXYZ, MXL, AKAM, FLY, MBUU, LUNR, WSC, CALY, PGNY, RDW, ASYS, AD, GRPN, BKSY, SYNA, MNST, TXRH, NSIT, INTC, RVI, MRNA, NVAX, MBX, MU, VOYG, POET, CSIQ, DBX, QURE, AMBQ, PENG, SNDK, NAMS, DELL, WLDN, LASR, URGN, RKT, CVSA, ASTS, CPAY, KOP, GEN, AVPT, AMD, FCEL, TECX, XYZ, QUIK, QCOM, TILE, BILL, MAGN, VPG, OFRM, XIFR, CLPT, WRBY, PDFS, PRKS, GTX, AAON, FDUS, AXTI, LOGI, MKSI, WOLF, SANM, CLPT, AIP, GRND, JKS, FTNT, PUBM, FLEX, SNDA, STM, CEVA, MIRM, ROAD, MNR, GOLD, TPB, GFS, PRMB, CYTK, WMG, CYRX, RELY, RRX, ALB, SCSC, DRD, CON, SMCI, MIDD and SITM
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (58)
  • MCK, GMAB, AFRM, COKE, KVYO, GLIBK, VCEL, VST, INSM, GCT, TTD, MAIN, TMDX, CELH, MDLN, WHR, QNST, BBUC, ZTS, ZLAB, GMED, AAOI, TXG, ICFI, G, SYM, PAHC, ESE, OMDA, AGO, LPTH, CAPR, NTRA, EMBJ, ONT, OSK, MSI, XNDU, CRNX, CRWV, VREX, MELI, FLR, PRAA, TNDM, TOST, ASIX, CAI, HRTG, REAL, HUBS, KODK, AMPH, NET, AORT, FIGS and TSSI
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change



Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Lower Long-Term Rates, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +850 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +100 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/energy sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (B)/.81
  • (CRCL)/.19
  • (DOLE)/.34
  • (FOXA)/.98
  • (MOS)/.24 
After the Close: 
  • (ACM)/1.55
  • (ASTS)/-.24
  • (HIMS)/.03 
Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

  • Existing Home Sales for April is estimated to rise to 4.05M versus 3.98M in March.  

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The 3Y T-Note auction, BofA Merrill Lynch Metals/Mining/Steel Conference, Needham TMT Conference, (DIOD) annual meeting, (MKSI) annual meeting, (FORM) investor day and the BofA Healthcare Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST