Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Israel/Lebanon Ceasefire, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Telecom Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.7 +1.6%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 76.3 -.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .23 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator .02 -1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.1 +1.2%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 159.9 +2.1%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 72.4 +.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .6 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 89.1 +.9

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 9.4 -1.2

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -22.4 -.4

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 31.2 -1.2
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(41 of 500 reporting) +30.5% -.9 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 339.89 +.55:  Growth Rate +22.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.08% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +690.0% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 813.08 +3.95: Growth Rate +104.4% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 19.7 +.1 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .91 +9.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 53.25 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.0 +.3%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.4 euros/megawatt-hour +2.5% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 22.0% +.3 percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +1.3% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.57 +1.0 basis point

• Highest target rate probability for June 17th FOMC meeting: 98.0% (-.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for July 29th meeting: 89.7%(-2.6 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -298 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -97 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Medical Equipment -2.0% 2) Airlines -1.8% 3) Construction -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TEM, NUTX, RMIX, ASML, TVTX, CDNL, LBRX, CSIQ, KALV, MAIN, SCHW, CRDO, ABT, YSS, ETON, JKS and QDEL 

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) CTMX 2) WMB 3) INFQ 4) HWM 5) BK

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IBRX 2) NUAI 3) ENPH 4) JKS 5) GOSS

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLV 3) XBI 4) VFH 5) SOXX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Telecom +2.4% 2) Computer Services +2.2% 3) Energy +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• XNDU, CDNA, AXTI, NN, NUCL, PII, SMMT, NVTS, SGML, FLY, AEHR, WOLF, PL, BKSY, MRLN, IRDM, GRPN, HIMX, RKLB, ON, JBHT, CHRW, CAR, DOO, ALM, ANL, HIMS, AMD, FWRD, SANM, LITE, AKAM, UMC, SQM, SMTC, OKTA, KNX, LUNR, ADUR, AGMB, SAIA, RDW, SRAD, FSLY, RDNT, QBTS, KALU, AMKR, AAOI, MXL, ADUR, ARCB, BAP, ORCL, PPG, RAPP, HMY, TTE, BABA, AGL, TEAM, VIA, GOLD, COHR, NET, ONTO, ATAT, HROW, PATK, BIDU, GFS, CAG, PBR/A, LION, RIVN and DDOG

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RUM 2) UMC 3) CMPX 4) FLG 5) EVTL 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MYSE 2) CDNA 3) AEHR 4) PII 5) ON

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLB 3) MAGS 4) IBB 5) XLF

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ALLY)/.93
• (ALV)/1.83
• (BMI)/1.22
• (FITB)/-.10
• (RF)/.60
• (STT)/2.64
• (TFC)/1.00 

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

• None of note 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, IMF meetings, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, CFTC weekly speculative net positioning reports, (CCL) annual meeting and the (BA) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.0 +2.5
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 53.5% of Issues Advancing, 44.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .89 unch.
• Non-Block Money Flow -$26.6M
  
• 57 New 52-Week Highs, 3 New Lows
• 57.6% (+.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.6 unch.

Polymarket: 

• How long will the DHS shutdown last? 70+ days 76.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 9.0% unch.
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30th 82.0% +6.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 34.0% +3.0 percentage points
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st 72.0% -7.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 112.7 +.5%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 100.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 94.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 495.75 -3.25 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 258.1 -.2%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 144.4 -.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (Moved to GREED from NEUTRAL) +9.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.5 -9.5%
  
• Vix 18.6 +2.6%
  
• Total Put/Call .63 -16.0%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ZeroHedge

• Business Financial Distress Nears COVID Levels As Sole Trader Numbers Rise.
• Ruben Gallego caught partying in Puerto Rico! Eric Swalwell & him spent campaign funds the same day in PR during his boozy wedding weekend. Donor money can’t pay for a wedding… Swalwell is already under investigation for breaking federal election law. Is Ruben next?? (video)
• JUST IN - Israeli megadonor Miriam Adelson gives $40 million to Republican super PACs for midterm elections.
• SHOCK POLL: Steve Hilton leads every Democrat in the crowded field for 2026 California Governor Election, with 25% support. California - 2026 Governor - Open Primary. Steve Hilton 25% (+9). Tom Steyer 16%. Katie Porter 14%. Matt Mahan 8%. 
• Major Israeli PAC Flips: Tel Aviv Should Pay Out-Of-Pocket If It Wants US Weapons.
• Florida couldn't get better advertising if if paid billions. (video)   
• Pentagon Accused Of Cover-Up After Missing Deadline On 46 Military UAP Videos.
• Russian Defense Ministry’s statement must be taken literally: the list of European facilities which make drones & other equipment is a list of potential targets for the Russian armed forces. When strikes become a reality depends on what comes next. Sleep well, European partners!
• disgraced Epstein BFF Larry Summers is why Sam Altman is still in charge of OpenAI after the coup.
• Treasury Secretary Says Order On Citizenship Proof For Banking Is 'In Process'.
• White House: 'Era Of Amnesty Is Over'.
• Tax-Day Triggers Stocks Up, Oil Up, VIX Up As Bears Get The BIRD.      

• @CNBC 

• Thursday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
• Asia markets set to open higher as hopes of U.S.-Iran deal lift Wall Street to records.
• Epstein accusations fly in Senate after César Chávez Monument row.
• Stock futures are little changed following a record-setting day for S&P 500 and Nasdaq: Live updates.   

• @MarioNawful

• A massive fire has broken out at Viva Energy’s refinery in Australia. It is one of only two operating refineries in the country and handles around 120,000 barrels per day. The energy minister says the fire is still not under control. (video)

• @RepLuna

• John Thune is blocking voter ID.

• @EricLDaugh

• BOOM: Sen. Mike Lee just told Leader John Thune NO MORE VACATIONS until the SAVE America Act is done. "We're back. We've got to get this done. We've got to get it done FAST." "Let's face it, taking a two-week recess with the SAVE AMERICA Act undone, with the Department of Homeland Security remaining unfunded, was a mistake. Regardless, what's done is done. Some of us tried to prevent that from happening." Time to surge to the floor for a talking filibuster! (video)

• @TheSCIF

• Election expert Jeff Lenberg states he has data of rigged elections going as far back as 1990 and that Bill Clinton most likely did NOT win his election either, but was installed as president in 1992 in an intelligence operation that our government was well aware of. In the 1992 Baltimore City election, 20,000 more votes were cast than voters alone, with a population of around 200k to 250k. That's close to 10% of the total votes being fraudulent. Imagine the rest of the country... If you thought 2020 was the first time the system got "creative" with votes… think again. The game has been fixed long before smartphones, Dominion machines, or mail-in ballots became a household name.

• @RepTiffany

• Another Chinese student has been caught smuggling biologic materials into the U.S. from Communist China. This comes after two Chinese nationals were caught smuggling a dangerous fungus into the U.S. It’s time to hit the brakes on visas from China.

• @nicksortor

• WOW! Kari Lake was PERSONALLY calling Ruben Gallego out for misdeeds with young female staffers all the way back in 2024. A FULL investigation needs to be launched into this guy. He’s clearly hiding things. When a 20-year-old female staffer complained, he had her FIRED in retaliation. While Gallego was in the AZ House, his colleagues gave him the name “The Troll” because of how “creepy and degrading he was towards women”. And we can’t forget how Gallego ABANDONED his first wife while she was NINE MONTHS PREGNANT to sleep with a DC lobbyist. Congress needs to be PURGED of these scumbags. (video)

• @BillMelugin_

• NEW: CA gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer (D) releases an immigration platform that is radically left of Gov. Newsom. It includes: - Abolish ICE. - Put ICE agents in jail & “treat them like the mob”. - Bring those “kidnapped & detained by ICE back home.” - Give CA AG power to imprison ICE agents & their leadership. - Taxpayer funded legal representation & support for illegal aliens. - Ignore a SCOTUS ruling that allows ICE to utilize to use race, language, job, and location to contribute to “reasonable suspicion” for immigration arrests, and instead, “California should take matters into our own hands and extend legal protections to its residents, despite the federal governments failure.” “This is about our right as a state to protect our residents,” Steyer says.

• @ScottPresler

• If Senate Majority Leader Thune does NOT pass the SAVE America Act by the end of April, I’m asking you to vote AGAINST Senator Cassidy in the Louisiana Republican primary on Saturday, May 16th. I’m asking you to vote AGAINST Senator Cornyn in the Texas Senate runoff on Tuesday, May 26th. Give us what we want or we will take away what you have — peacefully.

• @k1rallik

• They knew too much. Now they're gone.. 10 scientists.. 36 months.. 0 explanations.. NASA. MIT. Los Alamos. The Air Force. Dead.. Missing.. Vanished.. > nuclear fusion director - assassinated at home. > astrophysicist - shot on his porch at 6am. > JPL director - vanished mid-hike. never found. > 4-star general - walked out with a revolver. gone. And now #10. Steven Garcia. Top-secret clearance. Controlled components for 80% of America's nuclear weapons...

• @rawsalerts

• #BREAKING: According to reports, President Donald Trump and the Pentagon are ramping up planning for potential operations in Cuba.

• @redpilledhawk

• Charlie’s assassination was a complete victory for the left in every way. We still have no answers about his death. The Trump admin has made zero arrests or even made an attempt to crack down of left wing terrorism. TPUSA has given leadership over to Erika, whose behavior since the death of her husband can be characterized as strange at best and psychopathic at worst. The GOP, Trump admin included, have completely cast aside the concerns of youth voters (potential GOP voters for decades to come) in favor of the Boomers and the donor class. The magic is gone for TPUSA and it didn’t have to be this way.

• @TheGeoFight_com

• They’re not hiding it anymore. Companies are openly saying they want to release sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere… to dim the sun… for carbon credits. Let that sink in. Polluting the air. to “fix” the climate. As Attorney Blake Horwitz explains, this isn’t theory. These are stated plans. Three law firms and a coalition of experts are now taking legal action. Evidence is being gathered. Cases are being built. Accountability is coming. (video)

• @jackunheard

• JUST IN: Governor Abigail Spanberger officially signs a bill handing over Virginia’s 13 electoral votes to whoever wins the most votes across the whole country… even if Virginians vote the other way. Insane. They rushed it through with mostly Democrat votes. The plan has 222 votes. It needs 270 to actually start working. Once it does, your vote in Virginia doesn’t matter anymore. The Founders made the Electoral College so a few big cities don’t boss the whole country. This is a sneaky Democrat power grab to cheat that. “Every vote counts the same”? Lies. Virginians are pissed off, and they should be. They got played. (video)

• @BRICSinfo

• JUST IN: US military broadcasts message to ships violating its blockade of Iranian ports. "If you do not comply with this blockade, we will use force. "The whole of the United States Navy is ready to force compliance."

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.75 unch.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.75 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 105.3 USD/Metric Tonne +1.0%. 
• Crude Oil 91.64/bbl. +.4% 
• Gold 4,841.7 USD/t oz. +.37%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.81 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 113.0 +.8%
• US 10-Year Yield 4.27% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.64% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 -.7%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.19%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.