Thursday, March 03, 2016

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Short-Covering, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Commodity/Gaming Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.32 -4.51%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.07 +.92%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.47 -.09%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 55.81 -2.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 100.0 -5.66%
  • Total Put/Call .78 -2.5%
  • NYSE Arms .70 +70.66
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 98.43 -1.60%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 2,148.0 +32.44%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 100.44 -1.05%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.62 -5.22%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 70.19 -3.83%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 345.99 -2.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.32 +.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 32.25 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -31.0 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 69.63 +.51%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .26% -5.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 98.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $51.20/Metric Tonne -2.48%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -12.30 -2.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -62.90 +4.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.20 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.54% +2.0 basis points
  • 19.0% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 35.2% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -135 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -11 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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