Monday, March 07, 2016

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Central Bank Hopes, Oil Bounce, Less European/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Commodity/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Aeound Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.73 +5.16%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 130.43 -.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 11.63 -.51%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 58.52 +.58%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 70.0 -18.0%
  • Total Put/Call .81 -2.41%
  • NYSE Arms .77 +10.08
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 94.38 -.07%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 1,553.0.0 -22.54%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 98.17 -1.09%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 30.62 -3.65%
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 68.65 +.75%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 339.28 -.39%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 124.60 +.16%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 36.5 unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -28.75 +2.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 70.25 +.11%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .27% unch.
  • Yield Curve 100.0 -2.0 basis points
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $63.74/Metric Tonne +18.59%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.80 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -61.80 +.7 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -11.0 +2.2 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50% -3.0 basis points
  • 22.7% chance of Fed rate hike at April 27 meeting, 45.9% chance at June 15 meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -141 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +22 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -20 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/medical/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some of them
  • Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

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