Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Global Junk-Bond Default Rate to Rise to '09 Level, Moody's Says. Global junk-bond defaults will rise to the highest level in seven years in 2016 as a prolonged downturn in commodity prices continues to wreak havoc on company profits and balance sheets, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The ratings company forecasts that the speculative-grade default rate will reach 4 percent this year, up from 3.5 percent in 2015 and the highest level since 2009. The default rate for all of Moody’s-rated corporate issuers is estimated to rise to 2.1 percent, also a post-financial crisis high, from 1.7 percent last year. "Persistently low commodity prices, slowing economic expansion and widening high-yield spreads will send default rates higher in 2016," Moody’s credit analyst Sharon Ou wrote in a Feb. 29 report. Diminished credit quality "combined with the sharp increase in defaults and rising investor caution, indicate that the credit cycle is turning."
• Merkel Says Euro Is at Risk If Europe Crumbles in Refugee Crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe’s discord over refugees threatens the euro, raising the stakes as European Union leaders prepare for their next emergency meeting to stem the crisis. “If we disintegrate into small countries again, a common currency will be very difficult,” Merkel said at a party rally late Monday in the western German town of Volkmarsen. “What we are seeing in recent days, with certain countries going their own way to the detriment of another country like Greece -- that isn’t the European way.”
• Euro-Area Factories Cut Prices at Fastest Pace Since 2013. Euro-area factories cut prices at the fastest pace in almost three years in February, compounding an already worrisome inflation environment for the European Central Bank. Markit Economics said the price gauge of its manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell further below the key 50 level, dropping to the lowest since June 2013. All countries bar one in its monthly survey reported falling output prices, including Germany, France and Italy, the region’s three largest. The report comes a day after data showed consumer prices in the euro region fell an annual 0.2 percent in February, the most in a year. With ECB policy makers due to meet next week, the mounting catalogue of negative numbers may prompt them to increase their stimulus programs again. Chris Williamson said the report suggests that “deflationary pressures have intensified.” “With all indicators -- from output and demand to employment and prices -- turning down, the survey will add pressure on the ECB to act quickly and aggressively to avert another economic downturn,” he said.
• U.K. Manufacturing Has Its Worst Month in Almost Three Years. U.K. manufacturing grew the least in almost three years in February and new orders barely rose, highlighting the fragility of the economy as it heads into an uncertain year. Markit Economics said its factory index dropped to 50.8 from 52.9, marking the weakest reading since April 2013. A gauge of new orders was just above the key 50 line that divides expansion from contraction while employment shrank for a second month.
• Europe's Biggest Oil Hub Fills as Ship Queue at Seven-Year High. The queue of ships waiting outside Europe’s biggest port and oil-trading hub of Rotterdam has grown to the longest in seven years as a global supply glut fills storage capacity. As many as 50 oil tankers, twice as many as normal, are waiting outside Rotterdam because storage sites are almost full, the port’s spokesman Tie Schellekens said by phone on Tuesday. “This is a clear sign of the oversupply filling up storage to the brim,” Gerrit Zambo, an oil trader at Bayerische Landesbank in Munich, said by phone. “People are preferring to store oil rather than cut production. These are bearish signs.” 
• Barclays Plummets as Bank Slashes Dividend in Plan to Shrink. (video) Barclays Plc fell the most in more than three years in London trading as investors balked at Chief Executive Officer Jes Staley’s pitch that more short-term pain will be necessary for the bank to right itself. The lender cut its dividend for the next two years and said costs from its non-core division will rise by as much as 1 billion pounds ($1.39 billion) this year as it accelerates the unit’s wind-down, according to a statement Tuesday. The shares plummeted 8.1 percent to close at 158.1 pence in London, the most since June 2012. The stock has dropped 28 percent this year, more than any other large U.K. lender.
• European Stocks Complete Longest Rally Since October; LSE Jumps. (video) Carmakers led a fourth day of gains in European stocks, while London Stock Exchange Group Plc jumped amid a bidding war. BMW AG gained 4.2 percent after its chief executive officer forecast another year of record sales, and Daimler AG added 2.5 percent after its CEO noted strong growth in Europe and China. LSE surged 7.2 percent after Intercontinental Exchange Inc. said it’s considering a bid for the company that’s in merger talks with Deutsche Boerse AG. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.4 percent at the close of trading, as all 19 industry groups rose.
• Fed's Dudley 'Somewhat Less Confident' on Inflation Outlook. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said that while he still expects inflation to reach the U.S. central bank’s 2 percent target over time, he’s lost some confidence in that prediction, adding his voice to the concern expressed by several other policy makers. “On balance, I am somewhat less confident than I was before,” Dudley, the vice chairman of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said Tuesday in the Chinese city of Hangzhou. “Partly, this reflects my assessment that uncertainty to the outlook has increased and that downside risks have crept up.”
• Ryan Chides Trump, Indirectly, Over Lack of KKK Denunciation. House Speaker Paul Ryan on Tuesday scolded Donald Trump -- without directly naming him -- over his refusal to sufficiently disavow the support of former Ku Klux Klan grand wizard David Duke. Ryan’s criticism was indirect, but clear. "If a person wants to be a nominee of the Republican Party, there can be no evasion and no games," he said. "They must reject any group or cause that is built on bigotry. This party does not prey on people’s prejudices."
• Sports Authority Said to Plan Bankruptcy as Soon as This Week. Sports Authority Inc. is planning to file for bankruptcy within the next few days, assuming it can finalize terms for a loan to keep it operating during court proceedings, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The retailer is sorting out details on the loan, known as debtor-in-possession financing, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. Lenders such as Wellington Management and Blackstone Group’s credit unit GSO Capital Partners are considering providing the financing, two of the people said. They are two of the holders of Sports Authority’s $300 million term debt maturing November 2017.

Wall Street Journal:

• GOP Senate Leaders Tell Obama They Won’t Consider His Supreme Court Pick. Senators decline president’s offer to review a list of potential nominees in advance of an announcement.

Fox News:

• Rubio, Cruz locked in critical Super Tuesday battle for runner-up. (video) Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are battling fiercely to be the definitive alternative to take on Trump in what could be a bruising, to-the-convention fight for the future of the party.

CNBC:

• Obamacare is main roadblock to cancer 'moonshot'. President Barack Obama has promised a "moonshot" to cure cancer, but the biggest obstacle to that goal could be his major healthcare achievement – The Patient Care and Affordable Care Act. 
• NYC judge unlocks door to Apple(AAPL) privacy win.

Zero Hedge: 

• Someone Isn't "Buying" This Rally: The "Smart Money" Sells For Five Consecutive Weeks As Buybacks Soar. Hedge funds, institutional clients, and private clients alike were net sellers last week, led by hedge funds. All three groups are also now net sellers on a cumulative basis year-to-date (again, led by hedge funds).
• London Bubble Trouble - Visas Issued To Wealthy Foreigners Plunge 84%.
• "VIX Tails" Send Dow Up 350 Points From Overnight Lows. (graph)
• China's Mass Unemployment Wave Begins: Six Million Workers To Get Pink Slips. (graph)
• Spot The End Of Monetary Policy Effectiveness. (graph)
• Most "Priced In" Policy Since 2011 - Why Draghi Better Not Disappoint. (graph)
• Growing "Signs Of Distress" In US Manufacturing Data Demolish Decoupling Dream. (graph)
• The Great Corporate Earnings Fraud.
• Global Manufacturing Rolling Over: Over 70% Of Global PMIs Decline In February. (table)
• Buffett's Fallacy - 2% Growth & Future Prosperity.
• The Best And Worst Performing Assets Of February And 2016. (graph)

Business Insider:

• The Wolves of Wall Street are everywhere.
• The two stocks that have been the source of so much pain on Wall Street are tanking again.
• Former hedge fund manager Phil Falcone spoke in public for the first time in years, and slammed the industry. Former hedge fund manager Philip Falcone said that there's "an awful lot of mediocrity" these days in the hedge fund space.
• Bonds are getting smoked. 

CNN:

• National poll: Clinton, Sanders both top Trump. (video) Both of the remaining Democratic candidates for president easily top Republican front-runner Donald Trump in hypothetical general election match-ups, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll. But Hillary Clinton, who is well ahead in the Democratic race for the presidency, would likely face a stronger challenge should Florida Sen. Marco Rubio or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz capture the Republican nomination for president. In the scenario that appears most likely to emerge from the primary contests, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 44% among registered voters. That result has tilted in Clinton's favor since the last CNN/ORC Poll on the match-up in January. But when the former secretary of state faces off with either of the other two top Republicans, things are much tighter and roughly the same as they were in January. Clinton trails against Rubio, with 50% choosing the Florida senator compared to 47% for Clinton, identical to the results in January. Against Cruz, Clinton holds 48% to his 49%, a slight tightening from a 3-point race in January to a 1-point match-up now.