Monday, August 20, 2018

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Diminished Trade War Fears, Less European Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Retail/Transport Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.57 -.55%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.46 -.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.35 -.96%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.60 +3.86%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 158.0 -25.8%
  • Total Put/Call .80 -22.33%
  • NYSE Arms 1.13 +78.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.53 +.73%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 417.0 +.07%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.83 -1.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 271.25 -10.25 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.0 -.9%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 207.53 +.92%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.94 +.13%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 +.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.49 -.24%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.03% unch.
  • Yield Curve 23.25 -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 67.64 USD/Metric Tonne -.68%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.40 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -9.40 +5.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.50 -.1 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.08 -1.0 basis point
  • 90.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 96.7% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +21 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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