Friday, August 31, 2018

Stocks Mostly Lower into Final Hour on Trade War Fears, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Energy/Pharma Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.8 +2.1%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 133.94 -.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.48 -.64%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.46 -2.75%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 81.0 -14.74%
  • Total Put/Call 1.07 +30.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.24 -25.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.43 +.83%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 413.0 +1.77%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.09 +1.97%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 291.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.67 +1.72%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 236.01 +2.13%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 151.35 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.25 +2.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.74 +.20%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.09% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 21.75 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 65.90 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.70 +.7 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 1.40 -1.5 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -6.40 +4.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 -2.0 basis points
  • 94.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 98.4% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -95 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -44 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -39 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

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