Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:         

• U.S., China Resume Trade Talks as Trump Imposes New Tariffs.

• China Infrastructure Push Spurs Debt Sales, Calls for New Liquidity.  

• Mexican Peso Rally Shows Traders Are Betting a Nafta Deal Is Near.

• Facebook(FB) Suspends 400 Apps in Developer Data Investigation.  

• Asian Stocks Set for Modest Gains; Dollar Slips. Asian stocks looked set for small gains at the start of trading Thursday, while the dollar retreated after the Federal Reserve signaled no change to the pace of monetary policy tightening. Futures on equity indexes in Japan, Hong Kong and Australia all nudged higher after U.S. stocks ended the day little changed. The dollar weakened a fifth day and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.82 percent after the Fed indicated in meeting minutes a readiness to hike again if the economy stays on track. Oil jumped after a U.S. government report showed the biggest decline in crude inventories since late July. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.2 percent. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.3 percent. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.3 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 0.3 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

Wall Street Journal:

• S&P 500 Reaches Bull-Run Milestone.

• Trump Denies Directing Cohen to Pay Off Women. 

• The Next Big Bet in Fracking: Vast Volumes of Wastewater.

• U.S. Seizes on China’s Woes as Talks Start. 

• Short Squeeze Roils a Favorite Wall Street Trade.

• Fed Signals Rate Increase Next Month.

MarketWatch.com:

• Here’s why the stock market remains immune to Trump’s legal woes. 

• This bull market may soon silence all the critics.

• This stock market can just keep hitting one home run after another. 

• This analyst just got a lot more bullish on Amazon, Alphabet and Spotify.

Fox News:

• KRUMHOLZ: Trump-hating Dems who pursue impeachment will be punished.

CNBC: 

• It's going to take a lot more for the stock market to start caring about Trump's legal woes.

• SEC rejects bitcoin ETFs.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: JWN, WSM and more.

• One of Facebook's(FB) earliest executives, Dan Rose, is leaving.

• Fed officials worry that the trade war poses the biggest threat to 'strong' economy.

• Commerce Secretary Ross on NAFTA: A deal with Mexico is in reach.

• GOP billionaire Ken Langone: 'We've been patsies' on trade, but Trump will level the playing field.

• Saudi Arabia reportedly calls off Aramco IPO and disbands advisers.

Zero Hedge:

• This Is What $4 Million Buys You In Vancouver's "Housing" Market.

• Audience Boos, Laughs As Cohen Lawyer's GoFundMe Campaign Tops $100k.

• Not The Onion: Cali Health Org Replaces Word "Vagina" With Gender-Inclusive "Front-Hole".

• Loan Demand Suddenly Tumbles As Companies Revolt To Rising Rates.

• Michael Cohen Subpoeaned By NY Investigators In Trump Foundation Probe.

• Spooked Banks Slash Subprime Credit Card Exposure For First Time In Three Years.

• Hawaii Braces For Powerful Cat 4 Hurricane, Could See Direct Hit.

• US Stocks Reach Longest Bull Market Ever... Amid Ruble, Real, & Rate-Curve Rout.

Telegraph:    

• Greece will not escape debt servitude until the euro is destroyed.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.0 -.75 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 unch.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.87 -.07%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.17%

• S&P 500 futures +.03%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.03%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (FLWS)/-.13

• (BABA)/1.24

• (CTRN)/.07

• (HRL)/.39

• (SAFM)/1.27

• (PLCE)/.59

• (TTC)/.66

After the Close:

• (ADSK)/.16

• (GPS)/.72

• (HPQ)/.51

• (INTU)/.23

• (ROST)/1.01

• (VMW)/1.49

Economic Releases 
8:30 am EST

• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 215K versus 212K the prior week.

• Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1730K versus 1721K prior.

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for June is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in May.
  

9:45 am EST

• The Preliminary Markit US Manufacturing PMI for August is estimated to fall to 55.0 versus 55.3 in July.

• The Preliminary Markit US Services PMI for August is estimated to fall to 55.8 versus 56.0 in July.

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for July are estimated to rise to 645K versus 631K in June.
  

11:00 am EST

• Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for August is estimated at 23.0 versus 23.0 in July.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The $16B tariff tranche on China imports taking effect, Eurozone PMI report, Eurozone Consumer Confidence report, Jackson Hole Fed Conference, Japan CPI report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report and the (UHAL) analyst/investor meeting could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are slightly higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.