Friday, August 17, 2018

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Retail/Gaming Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.8 -5.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.52 +.22%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.48 +2.55%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.71 -4.84%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 259.0 +99.23%
  • Total Put/Call 1.02 +9.68%
  • NYSE Arms .70 -30.21%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.17 -.94%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 414.0 +1.96%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.80 +1.31%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 281.5 +1.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.10 +.18%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 206.23 +.87%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 150.75 -.19%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 28.5 +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.53 -.30%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.03% -3.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 25.25 unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 68.19 USD/Metric Tonne +.37%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -16.30 -3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -16.30 +1.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.40 -1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 unch.
  • 92.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 97.5% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +5 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +136 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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