Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• Turkey's Collapse Sinks Emerging Markets on ‘Manic Monday’.     

• Turkey Default Wagers Soar to Highest Since 2008 Crisis.

• Argentina Boosts World’s Highest Rates Amid Turkey Contagion.    

• China’s Yuan Slump Almost Over, Says StanChart Veteran.

• Trump Uses Sanctions to Spark Painful Market Moves for Adversaries.   

• Asian Stocks Set for Mixed Open; Dollar Holds Gain: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks pointed to a mixed opening Tuesday as the contagion from the economic crisis in Turkey remained relatively contained in developed markets overnight. U.S. stocks closed lower, the dollar rose to its highest in 14 months and Treasuries were little changed. Futures in Japan pointed to gains as the yen pared some of Monday’s rise. Australian and Korean futures were little changed while Hong Kong equivalents were lower. The S&P 500 Index declined for a fourth straight day, its longest losing streak in five months, though early signs that markets would buckle faded during the American trading day. Turkey’s lira steadied after slumping over 20 percent in four days while European banks dragged down stocks in the region, though equity measures closed well above the day’s lows. Still, emerging-market assets reeled. South Africa’s rand one-month implied volatility soared by the most since December 2015 while Argentina’s central bank unexpectedly hiked its key interest rate as the peso slumped to a record low. Nikkei 225 futures rose 0.6 percent in Singapore. Hang Seng futures fell 0.4 percent. SPI 200 futures rose 0.1 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.

• Ether Tumbles as Concern Increases That ICOs Are Cashing Out. 

• Icahn Drops Fight to Block Cigna's Takeover of Express Scripts.

Wall Street Journal:

• Turkish Lira Plunges Further as Erdogan Fails to Assuage Investors’ Concerns.

• Canada Backtracks on a Carbon Tax.

• Banks Finally Start to Pay Their Depositors.

• France Takes On Cellphone Addiction With a Ban in Schools.

MarketWatch.com:

• Strategists see 4 ways out of Turkey’s currency crisis.

Fox News:

• Fired FBI agent Peter Strzok sets up anti-Trump Twitter account, GoFundMe page seeking $150G.

CNBC:  

• 'What happens in Turkey won't stay in Turkey': Why this debt crisis could be different.

• US reaps more than $1.4 billion from steel and aluminum tariffs.

• Trump gives $717 billion defense bill a green light. Here's what the Pentagon is poised to get.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: SWCH, VIPS and more.

• Turkey's crashing currency likely to unleash wave of bad loans in region.

• Nvidia(NVDA) is a ‘top pick’ because of the chipmaker’s upcoming chips, Cowen says.

• Goldman lays out a scenario that could see the stock market surge.

Zero Hedge:  

• The Revenge Of Hillary: Senator Mark Warner Proposes The End Of Free Speech.

• China Credit Impulse Shrinks To 2 Year Low Amid Collapsing Shadow Banking Debt.

• Google Is Constantly Tracking, Even If You Turn Off Device 'Location History'.

• Sweden Is Burning: Migrant Gangs Unleash Coordinated Fire-Bomb Rampage Across Multiple Cities.

• Crypto Bubble Unwind Images: Fast In Altcoins, Slower In Bitcoin.

• CBO Cuts 2018 GDP Outlook, Sees Fewer Fed Rate Hikes.

• Russell Napier: "Turkey Will Be The Largest EM Default Of All Time".

• Global Stocks 'Miraculously' Brush Off Emerging Markets Massacre.

Business Insider:

• Rapper Azealia Banks claims she was at Elon Musk's house over the weekend as he was 'scrounging for investors'.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 84.25 +.5 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 +.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.52 unch.

• FTSE 100 futures +.10%

• S&P 500 futures +.12%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.21%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (AAP)/1.85

• (EAT)/1.19

• (ARRY)/-.30

• (CSIQ)/.24

• (HD)/2.85

• (TPR)/.57

After the Close:

• (A)/.63

• (DDS)/-.48

• (MYGN)/.33

• (CREE)/.08

Economic Releases 
6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism for July is estimated to fall to 106.8 versus 107.2 in June.

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for July is estimated unch. versus -.4% in June.

• The Export Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in June.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The China Retail Sales/Industrial Production reports, Japan Industrial Production report, Eurozone GDP report, weekly US retail sales and the Wedbush Healthcare Conference could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.