Thursday, August 16, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Diminished Trade War Fears, Less European/Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Earnings Optimism, Financial/Telecom Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.24 -9.63%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 131.09 +.29%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.27 -2.0%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.24 -7.51%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -12.2%
  • Total Put/Call .93 -19.13%
  • NYSE Arms 1.30 -13.77%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.76 -.76%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 406.0 +2.02%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 85.68 -3.86%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 279.75 -6.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.08 +4.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 204.0 -3.16%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 151.04 +.10%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 20.25 +1.25 basis points
  • TED Spread 25.75 +.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -9.25 +.75 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.72 +.40%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.06% unch.
  • Yield Curve 25.25 +.25 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.56 USD/Metric Tonne -.36%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -13.30 -7.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -17.50 +1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -8.30 -1.0 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 unch.
  • 92.3% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 97.9% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +113 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +63 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/medical/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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