Friday, August 24, 2018

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets Debt/Currency Angst, Earnings Optimism, Oil Gain, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.0 -3.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.40 +.56%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.35 +.73%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.89 -3.95%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 +29.35%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -8.91%
  • NYSE Arms .90 -36.34%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 59.89 -.93%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 400.0 +.28%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.52 -2.19%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 280.75 +6.0 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.58 -.56%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 207.41 -1.71%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 151.07 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 22.25 -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.25 +1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.84 +.61%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.09% +2.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve 20.0 -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.93 USD/Metric Tonne +1.01%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.20 +1.0 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -5.0 +.6 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.70 -1.1 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.09 unch.
  • 94.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 98.2% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +34 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +70 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +3 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

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