Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:        

• America's Booming Economy Comes With a Cost for Global Growth.   

• BOJ's Threat to Global Bonds Fizzles as Japan Insurers Stay Put.

• Yen, Treasuries Rise as Cohen Plea Hits Sentiment. The yen and Treasuries climbed after President Donald Trump’s longtime lawyer pleaded guilty to federal charges, weighing on U.S. equity futures. Asian stocks opened mixed. News of Michael D. Cohen’s plea deal sparked mild demand for haven assets and sent U.S. equity futures lower after American stocks closed at a fresh all-time high. The deal included his saying he was directed to violate campaign law at the direction of a candidate for federal office. Also following the regular session, Trump’s former campaign chairman was found guilty of tax fraud, among other charges. The dollar held its slide ahead of low-level trade talks between the U.S. and China. Japan’s Topix index was little changed as of 9:02 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell less than 0.5 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.5 percent.  

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.  

• Demand for Junk-Bond ETF Signals Strong Investor Appetite for Risk.

Wall Street Journal:

• Analysis: Cohen Deals a Blow.

• Benchmark Capital Stays Lean, Even After $14 Billion Bonanza.

• Toll Brothers(TOL) Profit Jumps as Wealthy Americans Spend.

• Kohl’s(KSS), T.J. Maxx(TJX) Continue Strong Run for Retailers.

• Property Investors Turn Lenders, Prompting Warnings.

• North Korea’s Continued Nuclear Work Raises ‘Grave Concerns’ for U.N. Atomic Agency.

• After Toppling of UNC’s Silent Sam, Security Tightened at Other Monuments.

MarketWatch.com:

• Here’s who owns a record $21.21 trillion of U.S. debt.

• This bull market may soon silence all the naysayers.

Fox News:

• Mollie Tibbetts’ suspected killer ID'd as 24-year-old illegal immigrant; student's body found in corn field.

CNBC:  

• S&P hits all-time high, ties record for longest bull market in history.

• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: RRGB, URBN and more.

• Goldman: Here are the 10 stocks most loved by hedge funds — including Microsoft.

• Cramer: The longest-ever bull market overcame these 10 obstacles.  

• Netflix(NFLX), Amazon(AMZN) and Nvidia(NVDA) are some of the top stocks since the ’09 bottom. One looks better than the rest.

Zero Hedge:

• Trump Responds To Manafort Vedict: "Nothing To Do With Russia Collusion".

• US Futures Tumble After Cohen "Campaign Finance Violation" Headlines.

• Michael Cohen Pleads Guilty, Says Violated Campaign Law At "Direction Of Candidate".

• Antifa Violently Attacks Man Holding American Flag - Except He's A Bernie Supporter.

• Paul Manafort Found Guilty On 8 Counts, Mistrial Declared On Other Ten.

• WTI Rebounds After Bigger Than Expected Crude Draw.

• Stocks & Gold Jump As Real Routed, Dollar Dumped.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.75 -1.0 basis point. 

• Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 10.75 -.25 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.76 -.03%.

• FTSE 100 futures -.52%

• S&P 500 futures -.45%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.45%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
Before the Open:

• (ADI)/1.45

• (FRO)/-.20

• (LOW)/2.02

• (TGT)/1.40

After the Close:

• (LB)/.35

• (SNPS)/.92

• (WSM)/.68

Economic Releases 
10:00 am EST

• Existing Home Sales for July are estimated to rise to 5.4M versus 5.38M in June.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,863,920 barrels versus a +6,805,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -446,580 barrels versus a -740,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +1,502,750 barrels versus a +3,566,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.55% versus a +1.5% gain prior.
  

2:00 pm EST

• FOMC Meeting Minutes

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US/China lower level trade talks, US sanctions on Russia and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.