Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Stocks Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Diminishing Trade War Fears, Economic Optimism, Technical Buying, REIT/Restaurant Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 12.3 +1.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 135.42 +.35%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 12.21 -2.63%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 29.66 +12.6%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +27.8%
  • Total Put/Call .80 +11.11%
  • NYSE Arms 1.29 +120.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.64 -.37%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 395.0 -.30%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 80.30 -.07%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 280.75 +2.75 basis points
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.29 -2.47%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 207.74 +.89%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 151.21 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 17.5 -.75 basis point
  • TED Spread 20.75 -1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -10.0 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.62 -.40%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 2.11% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve 21.50 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 66.05 USD/Metric Tonne unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.10 +.8 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 3.60 -1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -10.30 -.8 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.12 +1.0 basis point
  • 94.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 8th meeting, 98.5% chance at Dec. 19th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +7 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -24 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +5 open in Germany
Portfolio: 
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/medical/biotech sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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