Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• South Korea Posts Record Trade Deficit as Exports Tumble.  
• Hong Kong Housing Slump Pushes Negative Equity to 18-Year High.
• Worst UK Strikes for a Decade Shut Schools, Cripple Rail Network.  
• Hynix Posts Record Loss on Slump in Memory-Chip Prices.
  
• Asian Stocks Rise, US Futures Waver Before Fed: Markets Wrap.
  
• Oil Edges Higher Ahead of Fed Policy Decision, OPEC+ Guidance.
• Wall Street’s Feel-Good Start to 2023 Sets Up Perilous Fed Day.
  
• Fed’s Grip on Markets Thrusts Secondary Wage Data Into Spotlight.  
• Pricier Burgers Are Coming for Diners as US Cattle Herd Plummets.
• Boeing CEO Sees Self-Flying Tech Coming to Commercial Aircraft.
• Pfizer Loses $40 Billion of Value in Worst Month Since 2020.
  
• Black Swan’s Taleb Warns ‘Disneyland’ Is Over for Investors.  
• Bankman-Fried Would Embroil Stanford If He Violates His Bond.  
• McCarthy to Gather With Fellow Republicans Before Biden Meeting.   
• Americans Are Leaving High-Tax New York and Moving to Florida.  
• NYSE’s Haywire Trading Spurs Crush of Demands for Compensation.

Wall Street Journal:

• Joe Biden’s Big Oil Profits. Exxon’s shareholders can thank the President for his limits on U.S. fossil-fuel production.
• Baldwin Is Charged in ‘Rust’ Fatal Shooting.
• FDA Proposes Overhaul in Wake of Baby Formula Shortage.
• U.S. Says Russia Violated Nuclear-Arms Treaty by Barring Inspections.
• New China Rule Threatens to Disrupt U.S. Solar Ambitions.
• Mondelez International 4Q Sales Climb on Higher Prices.

Fox News:

• House undermines Biden admin with vote on whether to immediately end COVID health emergency.
• Biden's DOJ changes presidential pardons for the worse.
• State Dem wants to ban kids from bible camps, youth groups.

CNBC.com:

• Fed expected to slow rate hiking to a quarter point but will stay unrelenting in inflation battle.
• Meta technology chief Bosworth implies company has lost focus.
• Amazon layoffs hit workers in robotics, grocery, health and AWS divisions.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Snap, Electronic Arts, Advanced Micro Devices and more.

MarketWatch:                    

• Short-selling legend Jim Chanos hints at risk of bear market unlike anything he’s experienced since starting on the Street in 1980.  
• Electronic Arts expects layoffs, stock plunges more than 10% as mobile versions of popular games shelved and ‘Star Wars’ title delayed.
  
• Match sees ‘challenging’ first half ahead, but says Hinge is ‘brightest spot’ in its lineup.
• PayPal to lay off 7% of employees as part of cost-cutting push.

Zero Hedge:

• Biden Family Corruption, COVID Origins, Weaponized Government, And Border Crisis: House GOP Kicks Off Investigations. 
• 'We Found No Misuse Of US Funds In Ukraine', US Treasury Says (With Straight Face).
• "It's Time For The Scientific Community To Admit We Were Wrong About COVID & It Cost Lives". 
• "Approaching A Near-Term Ceiling" - SpotGamma On Market Positioning Into The FOMC.
• After Surge In Auto Thefts, Seattle Sues Hyundai And Kia For Failing To Install Anti-Theft Technology.
• 3,000 Flight Disruptions Hit US As Ice Storm Sweeps Southern States.
• Heart, Vein Disease Deaths High In 25-To-44-Year-Olds.
• Prestigious Liberal Watchdog Condemns New York Times' Russiagate Coverage.
• Cardboard Box Demand Plunging At Rates Unseen Since The Great Recession.
• Life after the January upside MOVE.
• US stocks gained at month-end after softer Employment Cost data, while focus shifts to the FOMC - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Chicago Crime Rises 61% In 2023, Violent Offenses Spike While Governor Insists Crime "Coming Down".
• SNAP Implodes Again After Forecasting First Ever Revenue Decline.
• WTI Holds Gains After API Reports Across-The-Board Inventory Builds.
• AMD Rallies After Top- & Bottom-Line Beat, In-Line Forecast.
• Stocks and bonds rally into month-end amid falling wage pressures on the eve of FOMC - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Big-Tech, Bitcoin, & Bullion Best January In Decades; Yield Curve Crashes To Record Inversion.

 Newsmax:

• In Floor Speech, Buck Decries 'Shocking Coordinated' Censorship of Newsmax.  
• DeSantis: Congress Must Investigate AT&T for Deplatforming.
• Speaker McCarthy Warns AT&T.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Trump Lawsuit: Bob Woodward Concealed *Key* Parts of Months Long Interviews With President Trump – Here Are the Redactions Woodward Deceptively Deleted from the Audio.
• Zelensky Sent Out Government Decree to Destroy ALL INFORMATION on Hunter Biden’s Metabiota Company on Same Day as Russian Invasion – Then Fire Spotted Outside Intel Headquarters.
• Biden to Send Ukraine ANOTHER $2.2 Billion in Military Aid – Including Long-Range Missiles: Reuters.
• “His Policies Were Incredibly Good for This Country” – Senator J.D. Vance Endorses President Donald Trump in 2024 GOP Primary.
• San Francisco Official Says $5 Million Reparations Payment and Total Debt Forgiveness For Longtime Black Residents is Not Enough.
• CNN Confronts Biden Spox After Leak to Media Reveals FBI Searched Penn Biden Center in November (VIDEO).
• Trump Vows to Revoke Biden’s ‘Cruel Policies’ on ‘Gender Affirming Care’ for Children; Crackdown on Hospitals, Big Pharma for Mutilating Children With Transgender Surgery, Medications (Video).
• Judge Rules Mysterious People Who Bailed Out FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried from Jail Should be Disclosed by Feb. 7th.
• WWE Legend Hulk Hogan ‘Can’t Feel His Lower Legs’.
• MUST WATCH: Medical Professionals-Turned-Whistleblowers Expose Houston Methodist Hospital’s Early COVID-19 Vaccine Mandate.
• TYRANNY: Minnesota Democrat Officials Including AG Keith Ellison Want to Take Away Dr. Jensen’s License after He Spoke Out About Inflated COVID Numbers.

The Epoch Times:

• Sen. Lankford Calls on Blinken to ‘Shine a Light’ on CCP’s Atrocities in Upcoming Beijing Trip.
• China Is Largest Provider of Counterfeit and Pirated Goods to US: Government Report.

Twitter: 

• @crushthemarket - Are you connecting the dots yet? A lot of coincidences showing up around food supply. Especially chickens & eggs in US. (video)
  
• @Mayhem4Markets - Retail is back in a big way. (graph)
• @Project_Veritas - 27,700,000 views of Pfizer Director of Research. (video) 
• @CheddarFlow - Lowest premium for an S&P500 put since January 2022. (graph) 
• @acemaxx - The ( #bearmarket ) rally may just be mirroring the rapid easing of financial conditions that has offset #Fed #tightening and returned #liquidity to last spring’s level, chart @MorganStanley. (graph)
• @RealMattCouch - Russian Warship Admiral Gorshkov with Hypersonic Zircon Missiles in Atlantic Just 800 Miles Off U.S. Coastline.
• @KLVeritas - President Biden “Food shortages will be real”. WEF remains optimistic, offering dietary solutions like plant-based meat alternatives, insects, and “meat cultivated directly from animal cells.”

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 922,020 Reports(+3,512 from prior week) Through January 6th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.5 +.75 basis point. 

• China Sovereign CDS 53.75 +1.75 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 127.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.13%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  59.2 +.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .32 +2.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.5 +.24%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.22%.

• S&P 500 futures -.28%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.45%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (MO)/1.16
• (ABC)/2.62
• (BSX)/.47
• (EAT)/.52
• (HUM)/1.47
• (JCI)/.67
• (NVS)/1.41
• (ODFL)/2.67
• (OTIS)/.75
• (PTON)/-.64
• (SMG)/-1.32
• (TMO)/5.20
• (TMUS)/1.06

After the Close:

• (AFL)/1.21
• (ALGN)/1.53
• (ALL)/-1.16
• (CHRW)/1.35
• (ELF)/.23
• (KLIC)/.24
• (LSTR)/2.60
• (MCK)/6.36
• (META)/2.23
• (MET)/1.64
• (RGLD)/.78
• (VSTO)/1.11
  

Economic Releases

8:15 am EST

• The ADP Employment Change for Jan. is estimated to fall to 180K versus 235K in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Construction Spending MoM for Dec. is estimated unch. versus a +.2% gain in Nov.
• ISM Manufacturing for Jan. is estimated to fall to 48.0 versus 48.4 in Dec.
• ISM Prices Paid for Jan. is estimated to rise to 40.4 versus 39.4 in Dec. 
• JOLTS Job Openings for Dec. is estimated to fall to 10300K versus 10458K in Nov.
  

2:00 pm EST

• The FOMC is expected to raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate +25.0 basis points to 4.5-4.75%.

Afternoon:

• Wards Total Vehicle Sales for Jan. is estimated to rise to 15.5M versus 13.31M in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed press conference, Eurozone Manufacturing PMI report, Australia Home Sales report and the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US Economic "Soft-Landing" Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Homebuilding/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -3.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .87%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.0 +.9%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.9 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.4 +.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.5 -2.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -14.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -5.6%

• NYSE Arms .91 -32.6%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.8 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 359.5 +.22%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 296.0 +2.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.6 -.68% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 357.2 -.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 187.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 106.8 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 224.3 -3.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.9 +.04%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.25 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 21.25 basis points +5.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 +.75 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  131.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 107.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% -5.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 128.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 57.3 euros/megawatt-hour +4.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.1 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 97.2 +6.2 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.3 +3.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 226.82 +.03:  Growth Rate +9.9% unch., P/E 17.9 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .26 -3.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -69.0 basis points (2s/10s) +2.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +.67% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% unch.: CPI YoY +6.44% +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 84.7%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 55.5%(+4.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(-0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -81.9%(+1.3 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +108 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +110 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +63 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/medical/commodity/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.6%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -.5% 2) Disk Drives -.4% 3) Computer Services -.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HUBB, MU, CAT, BZ, GLW, PHG, ASAI, BTAI, PSX, HLIT and WWD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) SMG 2) EMB 3) PHM 4) WHR 5) UPS
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SIDU 2) CAT 3) ITGR 4) BBBY 5) UPST
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +3.6% 2) Alt Energy +2.6% 3) Gambling +2.2%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AI, GPRE, AOS, ALGM, IP, PHM, GM, PII, SSTK, FIBK and CRK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WW 2) SYY 3) IP 4) ALT 5) MCD

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MSGM 2) AI 3) CNTX 4) ALGM 5) PHM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 80.2% of Issues Advancing, 17.4% Declining
• 64 New 52-Week Highs, 4 New Lows
• 58.0%(+6.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -2.0
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.8 +.5%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 14,561.2 +.3%
  
• Vix 19.4 -2.7%
• Total Put/Call .86 -4.4%
• TRIN/Arms .99 -26.7%
  

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• The World’s Next Big Inflation Surprise Is Looming In China.  
• There Are Signs of a ‘Second Chapter’ in the Pandemic Price Surge.
• Australia Retail Sales Post First Fall of 2022; Yields Drop.  
• Biden Team Weighs Fully Cutting Off Huawei From US Suppliers.  
• Japan Output Inches Down as Global Slowdown Tempers Rebound.
• Samsung Profit Drops on Weakness in Memory, Mobile Phones.
• China Tells Dutch It Wants Open Supply Chains Amid US Chip Curbs.  
• Asia Stocks Extend Monthly Gain Before Fed, ECB: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies After Drop as Chinese Demand, Fed Decision in Focus.
  
• OPEC+ Treads Wary Path Through China Rebound, Russia Sanctions.
  
• Fed’s Wall Street Clash Sets Stage for Powell’s Hawkish Message.  
• The People Who Helped Bankman-Fried Post Bail Can Be Identified, Judge Says.  
• US Offices Reach 50% Occupancy for First Time Since Pandemic Hit.  
• Carvana’s 2023 Rally Tops 100% as Options Fuel Meme-Style Frenzy.

Wall Street Journal:

• The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out.
• Israel Drone Strike Hit Iranian Weapons Facility.
• Zelensky Urges Faster Weapons Deliveries Amid Russian Push.
• Adani Group Fails to Halt Short-Seller Driven Decline.
• Samsung Operating Profit Falls 69%.
• Sketchy Social Security Numbers Possibly Landed Billions in Covid Aid. 

Fox News:

• WATCH:McCarthy spars with CBS host on election denial hypocrisy.
• Christmas, Easter removed from university's academic calendar.

CNBC.com:

• Ford and GM enter a new phase of uncertainty on prices and demand
• Apple’s expected to post its first revenue decline since 2019 on Thursday
• Everyone’s watching Meta’s earnings report for a hint at how online ads are doing.
• Dan Niles says he wouldn’t touch Apple going into earnings.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Whirlpool, NXP Semiconductors, UnitedHealth and more.

MarketWatch:                  

• Opinion: The Fed expects a ‘soft landing’ and no recession for the economy. We could get stagflation instead.
• It’s a key week for the stock market. If you’re not nervous, you should be, this global strategist warns.  
• Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns the 2023 stock market rally could end this week.
  
• DoorDash CEO and other co-founders to sell millions of shares, stock falls.
  
• Apple execs violated labor law after remarks that interfered with organizing: report.

Zero Hedge:

• "One Lie After The Next": CNN Ratings Hit 9-Year Lows After Reputational Suicide.
• Biden Says "No" To US Providing F-16 Jets For Ukraine (..For Now). 
• Unvaccinated Kidney And Heart Patients Denied Transplants Get Day In Court With Michigan Hospital.
• Vail Resorts Record An Abundance Of Snow Despite Mild US Winter.
• DOJ Is 'Boxed In' In Handling Of Biden, Trump Document Probes: Experts.
• Texas Oil And Gas Industry Braces For Severe Winter Weather.
• Court Rejects Johnson & Johnson Bankruptcy Strategy For 1000s Of Baby-Powder Lawsuits.
• Ron Paul: The Real Disinformation Was The "Russia Disinformation" Hoax.
• Bolsonaro Seeking Tourist Visa To Extend US Stay As Criminal Cases Pile Up In Brazil.
• Treasury Publishes Cash Balance Estimates As It Prepares To Drain $650 Billion To Offset Debt Ceiling.
• US stocks declined after hot Spanish inflation spurred profit-taking ahead of key events - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Halts New Licenses For Export To Huawei.
• Experts Warn New IRS Tax Rules Are A 'Double Whammy' For Families.
• Hawkish Shift In Fed Expectations Sparks Selling In Bonds, Big-Tech, & Black Gold.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Good: GOP Bill Would Expose US Fund Ties to China.
• Ex-Twitter Execs to Testify on Block of Incendiary Hunter Biden Story.
• Facebook Users Lash Out at DirecTV for Newsmax Censorship.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Please Pray for The Gateway Pundit – We Are Releasing Documents in Coming Days that Reveal Numerous Criminal Acts by the President and His Son Hunter.
• YouTube Insider Leaks “Urgent Guidance” Doc Sent to Employees on How to Handle Project Veritas’ Bombshell Pfizer Video.
• Have You Been Thinking About Quitting The Fight To Save America After The Disappointing 2022 Election Results? I Almost Did, and So Did Many Others…Here’s Why We Decided To Stay And Fight.
• Joe Biden to End Covid-19 Emergency Declarations on May 11.
• Trump Sues Far-Left Author Bob Woodward For $49 Million For Releasing Interview Recordings.
• Trans Activist Accused of Rape After She Was Moved to Women’s Prison.
• Calls for Immediate Suspension of the COVID-19 Vaccines Now Hit South Africa – Court Action Launched by 3 Non-profit Companies (VIDEO).
• Actress Lisa Loring – Best Known For Role as Wednesday Addams in Iconic TV Show “The Addams Family” Dead at 64.
• JEROME CORSI: How the CIA Engineered the “Russian Collusion” Coup d’État to Remove Donald Trump from the Presidency.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘China Changed Capitalism’: Sens. Rubio and Warner Sound Alarm on CCP’s Economic Threat.
• CCP Policies Create ‘Artificial’ Energy Crisis as Chinese Citizens Lack Winter Heating.

Twitter: 

• @Mayhem4Markets - Retail is back in a big way. (graph)
• @EmeraldRobinson - So @NameRedacted247 found the names of 165 spooks working just at Google. That’s a lot of Obama/Hillary parasites in one search engine.
• @Project_Veritas - 27,000,000 views of Pfizer Director of Research. (video) 
• @CheddarFlow - Lowest premium for an S&P500 put since January 2022. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 922,020 Reports(+3,512 from prior week) Through January 6th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 +3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 52.0 +3.25 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 127.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  58.4 -.08%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.29%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CAT)/4.03
• (GLW)/.44
• (XOM)/3.28
• (GM)/1.68
• (IP)/.69
• (MAN)/2.12
• (MPC)/5.63
• (MCD)/2.46
• (MDC)/1.52
• (NVR)/98.88
• (PFE)/1.04
• (PSX)/4.45
• (PBI)/.08
• (PII)/3.26
• (PHM)/2.92
• (SYY)/.84
• (UPS)/3.59
  

After the Close:

• (AMD)/.67
• (AMGN)/4.08
• (DOX)/1.34
• (BXP)/1.84
• (CP)/1.09
• (CB)/4.25
• (EA)/3.04
• (IEX)/1.97
• (JNPR)/.65
• (MTCH)/.60
• (MDLZ)/.70
• (SNAP)/.12
• (SYK)/2.84
• (WDC)/-.13
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 4Q is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.2% gain in 4Q.

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.5% versus unch. in Oct..
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Nov. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.52% decline in Oct.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Nov. is estimated to rise +6.7% versus a +8.64% gain in Oct.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 44.9 in Dec.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 109.0 versus 108.3 in Dec.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German retail sales report and the weekly US retail sales reports,  could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.