Wednesday, January 25, 2023

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:               

Fox News:
Zero Hedge:
Newsmax:  
Twitter: 
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.0 -1.5 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.25 -1.0 basis point. 
  • China Iron Ore Spot 124.3 USD/Metric Tonne -%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.7 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  56.7 +.6%. 
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .23 -4.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 +.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.48%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.25%.  
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
 
Before the Open: 
  • (ALK)/.93
  • (AAL)/1.07
  • (ADM)/1.64
  • (BX)/.95
  • (CMCSA)/.68
  • (DOW)/.57
  • (JBLU)/.20
  • (MA)/2.58
  • (MKC)/.87
  • (MUR)/1.15
  • (NOC)/6.57
  • (NUE)/4.33
  • (OSK)/1.73
  • (ROK)/1.87
  • (SAP)/1.34
  • (SHW)/1.85
  • (LUV)/-.09
  • (STM)/1.10
  • (TROW)/1.71
  • (TSCO)/2.35
  • (VLO)/7.19
After the Close:
  • (FICO)/4.18
  • (INTC)/.20
  • (KLAC)/7.09
  • (KNX)/1.11
  • (LHX)/3.28
  • (OLN)/1.41
  • (RHI)/1.36
  • (V)/2.01
  • (WY)/.18
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Dec.
  • 4Q Advance GDP Annualized QoQ is estimated to rise +2.6% versus +3.2% gain in 3Q.
  • 4Q Personal Consumption is estimated to rise +2.8% versus a +2.3% gain in 3Q.
  • 4Q GDP Price Index is estimated to rise +3.2% versus a +4.4% gain in 2Q.
  • 4Q Core PCE QoQ is estimated to rise +3.9% versus a +4.7% gain in 2Q.
  • Advance Goods Trade Balance for Dec. is estimated at -$88.1B versus -83.3B in Nov.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.0% gain in Nov.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for Dec. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
  • Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 205K versus 190K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims are estimated to rise to 1658K versus 1647K prior.
  • Durable Goods Orders for Dec. is estimated to rise +2.5% versus a -2.1% decline in Nov.
  • Durables Ex Transports for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for Dec. is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.1% gain in Nov.
10:00 am EST
  • New Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to fall to 611K versus 640K in Nov.
11:00 am EST
  • The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity for Jan. is estimated to rise to -7 versus -9 in Dec.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Germany CPI report, FDA Meeting on Covid Boosters, 7Y T-Note auction and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

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