Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Loosening US Financial Conditions, Meme Stock Revival, Massive Short-Covering, Alt Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.3 -2.5%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .84%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.5 +1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 146.4 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 -.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 33.6 -7.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -6.8%

• NYSE Arms 1.02 -15.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.3 -.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 352.16 +.16%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 305.0 -8.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.0 -.4% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 345.3 -2.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 186.0 basis points +4.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.3 -1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 223.02 -1.9%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.9 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 basis points unch.
  

• TED Spread 14.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.5 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  131.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 107.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .70 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.6 -.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.6 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 55.4 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.1 +1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 83.2 -2.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.5 +.6 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.47 -.13:  Growth Rate +10.4% -.7 percentage point, P/E 17.9 +.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .37 +4.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -68.75 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +.67% -286.0 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.30% -15.0 basis points: CPI YoY +6.39% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 85.5%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 55.4%(-1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 91 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 5.2%(-2.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -14/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.2%(-.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +93 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +422 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +58 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/utility/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long