Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:              

• The World’s Next Big Inflation Surprise Is Looming In China.  
• There Are Signs of a ‘Second Chapter’ in the Pandemic Price Surge.
• Australia Retail Sales Post First Fall of 2022; Yields Drop.  
• Biden Team Weighs Fully Cutting Off Huawei From US Suppliers.  
• Japan Output Inches Down as Global Slowdown Tempers Rebound.
• Samsung Profit Drops on Weakness in Memory, Mobile Phones.
• China Tells Dutch It Wants Open Supply Chains Amid US Chip Curbs.  
• Asia Stocks Extend Monthly Gain Before Fed, ECB: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Steadies After Drop as Chinese Demand, Fed Decision in Focus.
  
• OPEC+ Treads Wary Path Through China Rebound, Russia Sanctions.
  
• Fed’s Wall Street Clash Sets Stage for Powell’s Hawkish Message.  
• The People Who Helped Bankman-Fried Post Bail Can Be Identified, Judge Says.  
• US Offices Reach 50% Occupancy for First Time Since Pandemic Hit.  
• Carvana’s 2023 Rally Tops 100% as Options Fuel Meme-Style Frenzy.

Wall Street Journal:

• The U.S. Consumer Is Starting to Freak Out.
• Israel Drone Strike Hit Iranian Weapons Facility.
• Zelensky Urges Faster Weapons Deliveries Amid Russian Push.
• Adani Group Fails to Halt Short-Seller Driven Decline.
• Samsung Operating Profit Falls 69%.
• Sketchy Social Security Numbers Possibly Landed Billions in Covid Aid. 

Fox News:

• WATCH:McCarthy spars with CBS host on election denial hypocrisy.
• Christmas, Easter removed from university's academic calendar.

CNBC.com:

• Ford and GM enter a new phase of uncertainty on prices and demand
• Apple’s expected to post its first revenue decline since 2019 on Thursday
• Everyone’s watching Meta’s earnings report for a hint at how online ads are doing.
• Dan Niles says he wouldn’t touch Apple going into earnings.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Whirlpool, NXP Semiconductors, UnitedHealth and more.

MarketWatch:                  

• Opinion: The Fed expects a ‘soft landing’ and no recession for the economy. We could get stagflation instead.
• It’s a key week for the stock market. If you’re not nervous, you should be, this global strategist warns.  
• Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns the 2023 stock market rally could end this week.
  
• DoorDash CEO and other co-founders to sell millions of shares, stock falls.
  
• Apple execs violated labor law after remarks that interfered with organizing: report.

Zero Hedge:

• "One Lie After The Next": CNN Ratings Hit 9-Year Lows After Reputational Suicide.
• Biden Says "No" To US Providing F-16 Jets For Ukraine (..For Now). 
• Unvaccinated Kidney And Heart Patients Denied Transplants Get Day In Court With Michigan Hospital.
• Vail Resorts Record An Abundance Of Snow Despite Mild US Winter.
• DOJ Is 'Boxed In' In Handling Of Biden, Trump Document Probes: Experts.
• Texas Oil And Gas Industry Braces For Severe Winter Weather.
• Court Rejects Johnson & Johnson Bankruptcy Strategy For 1000s Of Baby-Powder Lawsuits.
• Ron Paul: The Real Disinformation Was The "Russia Disinformation" Hoax.
• Bolsonaro Seeking Tourist Visa To Extend US Stay As Criminal Cases Pile Up In Brazil.
• Treasury Publishes Cash Balance Estimates As It Prepares To Drain $650 Billion To Offset Debt Ceiling.
• US stocks declined after hot Spanish inflation spurred profit-taking ahead of key events - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• US Halts New Licenses For Export To Huawei.
• Experts Warn New IRS Tax Rules Are A 'Double Whammy' For Families.
• Hawkish Shift In Fed Expectations Sparks Selling In Bonds, Big-Tech, & Black Gold.

Newsmax:

• Rep. Good: GOP Bill Would Expose US Fund Ties to China.
• Ex-Twitter Execs to Testify on Block of Incendiary Hunter Biden Story.
• Facebook Users Lash Out at DirecTV for Newsmax Censorship.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Please Pray for The Gateway Pundit – We Are Releasing Documents in Coming Days that Reveal Numerous Criminal Acts by the President and His Son Hunter.
• YouTube Insider Leaks “Urgent Guidance” Doc Sent to Employees on How to Handle Project Veritas’ Bombshell Pfizer Video.
• Have You Been Thinking About Quitting The Fight To Save America After The Disappointing 2022 Election Results? I Almost Did, and So Did Many Others…Here’s Why We Decided To Stay And Fight.
• Joe Biden to End Covid-19 Emergency Declarations on May 11.
• Trump Sues Far-Left Author Bob Woodward For $49 Million For Releasing Interview Recordings.
• Trans Activist Accused of Rape After She Was Moved to Women’s Prison.
• Calls for Immediate Suspension of the COVID-19 Vaccines Now Hit South Africa – Court Action Launched by 3 Non-profit Companies (VIDEO).
• Actress Lisa Loring – Best Known For Role as Wednesday Addams in Iconic TV Show “The Addams Family” Dead at 64.
• JEROME CORSI: How the CIA Engineered the “Russian Collusion” Coup d’État to Remove Donald Trump from the Presidency.

The Epoch Times:

• ‘China Changed Capitalism’: Sens. Rubio and Warner Sound Alarm on CCP’s Economic Threat.
• CCP Policies Create ‘Artificial’ Energy Crisis as Chinese Citizens Lack Winter Heating.

Twitter: 

• @Mayhem4Markets - Retail is back in a big way. (graph)
• @EmeraldRobinson - So @NameRedacted247 found the names of 165 spooks working just at Google. That’s a lot of Obama/Hillary parasites in one search engine.
• @Project_Veritas - 27,000,000 views of Pfizer Director of Research. (video) 
• @CheddarFlow - Lowest premium for an S&P500 put since January 2022. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 922,020 Reports(+3,512 from prior week) Through January 6th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.50% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 +3.25 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 52.0 +3.25 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 127.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  58.4 -.08%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.0 -.29%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.19%.

• S&P 500 futures +.24%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (CAT)/4.03
• (GLW)/.44
• (XOM)/3.28
• (GM)/1.68
• (IP)/.69
• (MAN)/2.12
• (MPC)/5.63
• (MCD)/2.46
• (MDC)/1.52
• (NVR)/98.88
• (PFE)/1.04
• (PSX)/4.45
• (PBI)/.08
• (PII)/3.26
• (PHM)/2.92
• (SYY)/.84
• (UPS)/3.59
  

After the Close:

• (AMD)/.67
• (AMGN)/4.08
• (DOX)/1.34
• (BXP)/1.84
• (CP)/1.09
• (CB)/4.25
• (EA)/3.04
• (IEX)/1.97
• (JNPR)/.65
• (MTCH)/.60
• (MDLZ)/.70
• (SNAP)/.12
• (SYK)/2.84
• (WDC)/-.13
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Employment Cost Index for 4Q is estimated to rise +1.1% versus a +1.2% gain in 4Q.

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Nov. is estimated to fall -.5% versus unch. in Oct..
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Nov. is estimated to fall -.7% versus a -.52% decline in Oct.
• The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA for Nov. is estimated to rise +6.7% versus a +8.64% gain in Oct.
  

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Jan. is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 44.9 in Dec.

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 109.0 versus 108.3 in Dec.

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Services Activity Index for Jan.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The German retail sales report and the weekly US retail sales reports,  could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.