Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Afternoon on Earnings Optimism, US Soft-Landing Hopes, Short-Covering, Metals & Mining/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -3.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.04%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.2 +.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 143.6 -1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.6 -.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.7 -1.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +7.0
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -9.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.06 -9.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 70.7 -.49%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 350.05 -2.11%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 335.0 -6.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.3 +2.2% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 380.3 -2.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 184.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.4 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 227.05 +.66%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.79 -.57%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 27.0 basis points -2.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 24.0 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.75 -1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  130.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 114.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .78 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 unch.
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.59% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.3 USD/Metric Tonne -2.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 64.8 euros/megawatt-hour -3.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.1 +3.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 80.3 +2.5 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -16.5 +.3 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.08 +.04:  Growth Rate +10.9% unch., P/E 17.4 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .19 +10.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -72.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.07% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.45% unch.: CPI YoY +6.31% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 78.9%(+2.3 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 53.6%(-1.7 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 126 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.2%(-.8 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -14/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -73.1%(-.9 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -334 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +115 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +93 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my tech/commodity/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long