Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Option Expiration, Short-Covering, Tech/Gambling Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.5 -4.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .87%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 55.8 +5.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.7 +1.0%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -.5%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.5 -.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .88 -10.2%

• NYSE Arms .84 -40.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.52 -.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 364.95 -1.22%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 337.0 +9.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.0 -.03% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 378.31 +1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 basis points +11.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.8 +.67%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 230.60 -.78%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.0 +.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 basis points -1.25 basis points
  

• TED Spread 18.25 basis points +2.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.75 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  140.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 110.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .75 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.5 +.26%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.64% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.13%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 66.9 euros/megawatt-hour +10.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.7 +1.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 87.7 -.2 point
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.9 -.9 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 228.47 +.03:  Growth Rate +10.9% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.2 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .23 +4.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -70.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.53% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.45% unch.: CPI YoY +6.34% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 unch.
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 78.7%(+3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 58.1%(+2.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 105 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.2%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -21/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -77.5%(+.0 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +312 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +92 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +59 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/medical/tech/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long