Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Loosening US Financial Conditions, US Economic Soft-Landing Hopes, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Energy/Tech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 19.0 -.47%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .84%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 58.5 +3.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.0 +.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.3 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 36.5 -.03% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 106.0 +27.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 -13.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.28 +66.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.2 -.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 356.22 -1.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 313.0 -13.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 87.3 -2.4% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 354.14 -1.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 182.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.5 -1.2%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 228.2 -.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 28.06 +.12%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• TED Spread 15.75 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  131.0 -3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 107.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .70 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.7 -.04%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.66% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 126.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 54.8 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -4.5 +11.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 85.3 -2.4 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.9 -.6 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 227.60 -.32:  Growth Rate +11.9% +.5 percentage point, P/E 17.8 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 +3.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -69.5 basis points (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.53% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.45% unch.: CPI YoY +6.39% +5.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +6.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 84.3%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 54.6%(-2.2 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 105 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 7.2%(-.0 percentage point) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) -0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -80.2%(-.4 percentage point) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +118 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +376 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +57 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my medical/tech/utility/industrial/commodity sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long