Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:          

• New Zealand Prime Minister Ardern Announces Shock Resignation.
• New Zealand Business Confidence Slumps to Worst Since 1970s.
• New Zealand Housing Slump May Be Harbinger of What's to Come Elsewhere.  
• Japan’s Trade Gap Narrows as Yen Gains, Energy Costs Fall.
• Australia Jobs Surprisingly Fall, Easing Case for Rate Hike.  
• Asian Stocks Decline on Deepening Growth Concerns: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Extends Decline on US Recession Concern, Inventory Build.
• What Tech Job Cuts Say About Silicon Valley — and the Economy.  
• Crypto Firm Genesis Is Preparing to File for Bankruptcy Protection.  
• Job Market’s 2.6 Million Missing People Unnerves Star Harvard Economist. 
  
• Regional Banks Drop as Uncertainty, Inverted Yield Curve Dim Outlook.
  
• Microsoft, Amazon Are Set to Erase 28,000 Jobs as Tech Slump Deepens.  
• Oaktree’s Marks Sees End to Junk-Bond Rally With Defaults Rising.
  
• Here’s a Running List of Tech Companies Planning Job Cuts.  
• Wall Street Struggles to Contain Costs as Pay Pressures Escalate.  
• ChatGPT Will Be the Calculator for Writing, Top Economist Says.
  
• Apple to Expand Smart-Home Lineup, Taking On Amazon and Google.

Wall Street Journal:

• Russian Spy or Ukrainian Hero? The Strange Death of Denys Kiryeyev.
• The Best and Worst U.S. Airlines of 2022.
• Surveillance Program on Money Transfers Raises Privacy Concerns.
• Mexico Bans California Startup’s Experiments to Cool Atmosphere.
• Microsoft to Lay Off 10,000 Employees.
• Berlin Won’t Allow Exports of German Tanks to Ukraine Unless U.S. Sends Its Own.
• In Davos, Leaders Fret Over Fragmenting Global Economy.
• Nursing Homes’ Use of Schizophrenia Drugs to Be Audited by U.S. Government.

Fox News:

• Supreme Court deals major blow to Second Amendment for millions of Americans.

CNBC.com:

• Crypto publication CoinDesk hires Lazard to explore sale as crisis deepens at parent company DCG.
• Bed Bath & Beyond looks for capital infusion, buyer ahead of likely bankruptcy filing.
• Apple is the only tech giant that still hasn’t announced layoffs — these charts may explain why.
• Microsoft, Amazon and other tech companies have laid off more than 60,000 employees in the last year.

MarketWatch:           

• Allstate tells Wall Street to brace for higher catastrophe losses in Q4, thanks to December winter storm.
  
• Netflix’s unpredictable finale: With no more subscription guidance, the focus is on financial estimates.
  
• Shoppers are ditching jeans for cargo pants and chinos, retail execs say.  
• Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’ flashes warning that stocks might be headed off a cliff.  
• Opinion: This perfect storm of megathreats is even more dangerous than the 1970s or the 1930s, Roubini says.

Zero Hedge:

• A "Corrupt Circle-Jerk..." Of "Select Human Beings" - Did Davos Just Reach 'Peak Creepy'?
• Classified Docs Were At Biden House While Hunter Took Millions For "Representing F**king Spy Chief Of China".
• Buyer Cancellation Rate At Top US Homebuilder Surpasses 2008 Levels.
• Why A Shocking Number Of Crazy-Sounding Right-Wing Conspiracy Theories Turned Out To Be True.
• BofA Freezes Hiring On Downturn Risk; Credit Suisse To Pay Bonuses Upfront To Prevent Exodus.
• Secretive Surveillance Program Captured 150 Million International Money Transfers Spanning 20 Countries: Sen. Wyden.
• Poszar Was Right: Saudis Confirm Non-Dollar Oil Trade Plans In Davos.
• China Outpacing US In AI Research Production.
• McCarthy Rejects White House Demand For "Clean" Debt-Ceiling Hike.
• Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene, Paul Gosar Back On Committee Assignments.
• Illinois' Newest Suicide Attempt: Wealth-Tax Legislation To Be Introduced This Week.
• US stocks declined after weak data and hawkish Fed rhetoric thwarted the BoJ rally - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• Want To Know Where The Economy Is Going? Watch The Top 10%.
• WTI Extends Losses After API Reports Big Crude Build.
• Stocks reversed BoJ rally after dismal data and hawkish Fed Speak - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Man Discovers Brand New EV Hummer Will Take Five Days To Fully Charge.
• China Cut Treasury Holdings Again In November As World Piled Into US Stocks.
• Stocks & Bond Yields Slump As 'Soft Landing' Story Crashes.

Newsmax:

• DeSantis: 'Hypocrisy,' Hunter Security Risk in Biden Docs.
• House Repubs Countering Activist Onslaught Against Mt. Rushmore.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Project Veritas’ Latest on Teaching Lab: ‘Evil Salesman’ Dr. Quintin Bostic Claims His Employer is ‘Running a Non-Profit But It’s For Profit’ (VIDEO).
• MUST WATCH: Rebel News Reporters Confront Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla on His Unsafe and Ineffective mRNA Shots.
• Nutjobs at the World Economic Forum Declare New Crises Facing the World.
• America Is Getting Played by the Deep State and Biden Administration – the Most Important Questions Remain Unanswered.
• St. Louis Woman Arrested after Firing Several Rounds at Police – Is Released from Jail the Next Morning Without Any Charges.
• A Sign? Karine Jean-Pierre Refers to Kamala Harris as “the President” Amid Biden Documents Scandal (VIDEO).
• President Trump to Attend Saturday Memorial for Lynette “Diamond” Hardaway in North Carolina.
• As Bed, Bath & Beyond Closes Stores, Conservatives Reveal They Boycotted After MyPillow Was Canceled.
• Ukrainian Troops Land on US Soil Will Start Training at Military Base in Oklahoma (VIDEO).
• FTX Detailed Recovery Plan Released – Executives Could Borrow Billions from Customers with No Collateral – $250 Million in Bahamas Property Purchased.
• Democrat Minnesota Lawmaker Wants Menstrual Products in Boys Bathrooms in Every School (VIDEO).
• MORE EVIDENCE: FOIA Requests Reveal There Were No DOJ Investigations on Election Fraud After 2020 Election as Bill Barr Claimed.
• Ohio School District Sued By 18 Parents for Allowing Transgender Student Into Girls Bathrooms.

The Epoch Times:   

• Trump Vows to Ban Chinese Investment in US Farmland if Re-elected.
• China Local Government Debts Grow Faster Than GDP.
• University of Kansas Researcher Sentenced to Time Served for Hiding China Ties.

Twitter: 

• @JackPosobiec - Here is the result you get when you check how many sessions the World Economic Forum is holding on Taiwan this year in Davos. Are you paying attention yet?
• @TPostMillennial - George Soros is responsible for funding some of the most influential media figures in the world via donations to liberal groups affiliated with them.
• @zerohedge - Mapping Out All The Key Revelations From The 'Twitter Files' So Far...
• @akheriaty - Tucker covers @StKirsch’s bombshell finding about the FAA loosening its EKG range for pilots while offering no explanation as to why to the public. Guest: @LTCTheresaLong. (video)
• @DrAseemMalhotra - I REPEAT ‘Post covid vaccine myocarditis is 28 TIMES MORE common than post covid myocarditis’ The fact that most people don’t know this is because of Big Pharma’s successful PR machinery (capture of institutions, medical journals & media) to deflect away from the ugly truth.
• @theinformantofc - #JoeManchin, Democrat and former governor of #Virginia, argues against the #FirstAmendment at the #WorldEconomicForum meeting in #Davos: "The problem we have is the open press system and basically all platforms." (video)
• @JamesOKeefeIII - Part 2 coming tomorrow @TeachingLabHQ. (video)
• @KatieDaviscourt - HOLY SH*T: CEO of Pfizer gets DESTROYED in Davos at the World Economic Forum. @RebelNewsOnline #WEF. (video)
• @NationalFile - Davos: WEF Congratulates Brian Kemp on Failing to Secure Georgia’s Elections.
• @TPostMillennial - WEF is “predicting” a “catastrophic cyber event likely in the next years”. (video)
  

 OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 918,508 Reports(+3,097 from prior week) Through December 30th, 2022.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Covid-19(Data, Maps, Graphs):

• Our World in Data:  New Global Covid-19 Cases(7-day rolling average graphs). New US Covid Hospital Admissions/ICU Admissions/Deaths
  
• FT.com:  Fully Vaccinated by Country(graph). Global Lockdown Stringency Index(map).
• Bloomberg.com:  International Travel Restrictions.  Case Graphs by State.
  
• NYTimes.com:  County Trends and Clusters. Local ICU Occupancy.
  
• Brown School of Public Health:  Covid Severity by State/County(map).  US Hospital Capacity(region).
  
• CovidActNow:  Covid Severity/Infection Rate by Metro Area.
  
• KFF:  US Vaccinations by Race/Ethnicity.
  
• Carnegie Mellon: Covid-Like Symptoms in Community. Covid Symptom Searches on Google. Covid-Related Dr.Visits.  Restaurant Visits. Wearing Masks. (graphs)
  
• Safegraph.com:  Commerce Patterns(graphs).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 104.5 -2.0 basis points. 

• China Sovereign CDS 51.0 -2.0 basis points. 
• China Iron Ore Spot 124.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.9%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.3 -.15%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index  52.9 -.6%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .12 -3.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 21.7 +.06%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.55%.

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.12%.  

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BKU)/1.10
• (CMA)/2.56
• (CBSH)/1.03
• (FAST)/.42
• (FITB)/1.00
• (HTLD)/.30
• ((KEY)/.55
• (MTB)/4.44
• (NTRS)/1.81
• (PG)/1.59
• (TFC)/1.28
  

After the Close:

• (NFLX)/.54
• (PPG)/1.13
• (SIVB)/5.26
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

•  Housing Starts for Dec. is estimated to fall to 1358K versus 1427K in Nov.
• Building Permits for Dec. is estimated to rise to 1365K versus 1342K in Nov.
• The Philly Fed for Jan. is estimated to rise to -11.0 versus -13.8 in Dec.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to rise to 214K versus 205K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1655K versus 1634K prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Brainard speaking, Australia Unemployment Rate and the weekly EIA natural gas inventory report could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.