Stocks Higher into Afternoon on US CPI Improvement Hopes, Earnings Optimism, Short-Covering, Metals & Mining/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume:  Below Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.8 -5.1%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57,8 +4.3%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 147.2 +.35%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.8 +.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 40.4 -5.6% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 -21.0
  

• Total Put/Call 1.02 +15.9%

• NYSE Arms .72 -44.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.68 +.07%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 367.28 -1.53%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 332.0 +25.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 91.09 +3.35% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 418.91 -.01%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 191.0 basis points -5.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 114.45 +1.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 232.12 +1.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.74 -.84%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 28.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 22.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  136.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 116.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .82 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 48.1 +.13%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.62% +2.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 119.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 70.0 euros/megawatt-hour -5.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -11.4 -2.3 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 80.1 +3.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -24.1 -.9 point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.44 -.29:  Growth Rate +11.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 17.0 -.1
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .07 +10.0 basis points
  
• Yield Curve -64.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +4.07% +31.0 basis points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.64% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 69.7%(+2.6 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 50.1%(+.3 percentage point) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+0.0 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +0/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -72.0%(+2.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +99 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +101 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +98 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher:  On gains in my commodity/tech/industrial/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long