Stocks Surging into Afternoon on Weak US Economic Data, Lower Fed Rate-Hike Odds, Dollar Weakness, Tech/Commodity Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  

• Volume:  Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 21.3 -5.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.68%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 54.8 -.64%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 145.51 +.15%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.7 -.4%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.2 -4.2% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 112.0 +22.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.03 +.98%

• NYSE Arms 1.32 +28.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 75.2 -4.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 386.55 +.17%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 327.0 +12.0
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 90.11 -4.6% 
• Credit Suisse Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 438.76 +.27%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 202.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 118.5 -1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 231.62 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 27.89 +1.09%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 29.75 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• TED Spread 20.25 basis points -4.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -16.0 basis points unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  137.0 -9.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg US Agg CMBS Avg OAS 115.0 -1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .79 -2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 47.8 +.62%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.60% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 116.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.87%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 69.5 euros/megawatt-hour -3.99%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.3 -16.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 79.0 +3.1 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -22.0 +2.1 points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 229.91 -.15:  Growth Rate +11.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 16.9 +.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.22 +1.0 basis point
  
• Yield Curve -70.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.76% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +4.52% unch.: CPI YoY +6.64% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20 -2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 22nd FOMC meeting: 67.1%(+8.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%. Highest target rate probability for May 3rd meeting: 46.1%(+8.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

US Covid-19:

• 140 new infections/100K people(last 7 days total). 8.0%(+1.2 percentage points) of 1/14/22 peak(1,740) +21/100K people from prior report.
  
• New Covid-19 patient hospital admissions per 100K population -69.7%(+.2 percentage points) from peak 7-day avg. of 1/9/22 - 1/15/22
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +138 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +174 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +69 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my commodity/tech/medical/utility/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades:  Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long