Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -.5%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -2.7% 2) Medical Equipment -1.4% 3) Steel -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FUBO, EGAN, A, KURA, LTHM, SPT, TMO, LB, MRNA, CIEN, RGEN, FGEN, PII, RAMP, EBS, ASO, NCLH, SIBN, ORA, LOW, GDRX, GTHX, AVYA and ROOT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) BX 2) GRPN 3) FCEL 4) DISH 5) LOW
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) PAYS 2) ATEX 3) TGLS 4) GDRX 5) NCLH
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +3.1% 2) Airlines +2.5% 3) Gaming +1.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KOD, NKLA, RIDE, SDC, TEN, HZO, DMYT, PCG, ODP, DEN, FTAI, WES, REZI, TGT, BLNK, EB, PTGX and LZB
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FTAI 2) A 3) XLY 4) MITT 5) TGT

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TGT 2) TJX 3) GE 4) KSS 5) NIO
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +26.7% Above 100-Day Average
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 65.3% of Issues Advancing, 31.5% Declining
• 137 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 79.9% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,175.0 +63.0 points
• Vix 21.9 -3.4%
• Total Put/Call .69 -19.8%
• TRIN/Arms .95 +11.8%

Wednesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:                             

• China’s Credit Jitters Deepen a Selloff in Government Bonds.
• Tokyo Bolsters Push to Lure Business From Hong Kong: NEF Update.  
• Bill Clinton Says China’s Direction Under Xi Upended U.S. Ties.
• Asian Stocks See Muted Start; Treasuries Steady: Markets Wrap. Asian stocks were mixed Wednesday after U.S. shares retreated as investors weighed escalating Covid-19 cases against optimism over a vaccine. Treasuries were steady after an overnight rise. Stocks fell in Japan, and edged up in Australia and South Korea. S&P 500 futures fluctuated after the gauge pulled back from a record high earlier. Pharmacy chains were among the worst performers after Amazon.com Inc. unveiled a new push into prescription drugs. Treasury yields and the dollar held declines as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the U.S. economy still has a “long way to go” before it fully recovers from the pandemic. Elsewhere, China stocks will be in focus as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is pushing ahead with a plan that threatens to kick Chinese companies off U.S. stock exchanges. Oil slipped and gold was little changed.
• Oil Retreats After Report Points to Swelling U.S. Stockpiles.
• Trump Orders Troop Drawdown in Iraq, Afghanistan by Jan. 15.
• Zuckerberg, Dorsey Face Angry Lawmakers Still Split on Concerns.  
• America’s Zombie Companies Have Racked Up $1.4 Trillion of Debt.

Wall Street Journal:

• Moderna and Pfizer Are Reinventing Vaccines, Starting With Covid.
• Behind the Elite Hatred of Clarence Thomas.
• A Vaccine Is Already Helping.
• Doctors Apply Covid-19 Lessons Learned as Cases Surge.
• Zuckerberg, Dorsey Tout Progress in Combating Political Misinformation.
• Demand for New Fences Meets a Nationwide Lumber Shortage.

Fox News: 

• Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic Designed for Vote Fraud. (video)
• Sidney Powell: A high-ranking military witness explaining how Smartmatic threw elections. (video)
  
• Pennsylvania governor issues new COVID rules, including wearing mask in your home.
  

CNBC.com:

• Shelton Fed nomination fails key Senate procedure vote, possibly ending her chances.
• Bill Gates says more than 50% of business travel will disappear in post-coronavirus world.
• The NFL will hold a virtual Pro Bowl this year, with players competing in the Madden video game.

MarketWatch.com:            

• Nio’s quarterly loss narrows, but stock falls.  
• Palantir stock rockets to record highs as hedge funds disclose stakes.  
• Opinion: Now that Tesla is joining the S&P 500, you might want to sell.

Zero Hedge:

• FEC Chair: If Sidney Powell Says There Was Rampant Voter Fraud, "I Believe Her".
• 'This Has Never Happened': Deadlocked Board In Largest Michigan County Refuses To Certify Nov 3 Vote.
• Second Memory Card With 2,755 Votes Found During Georgia Election Audit, Decreasing Biden Lead.
• Is There Really A China Economic Miracle?
• Trump Fires DHS Official Whose Agency Rebuffed Election Integrity Claims.
• SoftBank CEO Warns Of "Lehman-Like-Crisis" That Could Crash Global Economy.
• The "COVID Coup".
• Secretive Club For Ultra-Wealthy Environmentalists Revealed.
• Sen. Chuck Grassley Tests Positive, Tokyo Placed On Highest COVID-19 Alert Level: Live Update.
• Quant Carnage Hammers Iconic Hedge Funds Renaissance, Two Sigma.
• Robinhood Soliciting Advisors For Potential IPO Early Next Year.
• Weapons Of Mass Deception.
• Goldman Plans Second Round Of Layoffs Ahead Of "Significant Staff Reductions" In 2021.
• WTI Slides After Bigger Than Expected Crude Build.
• China De-Dollarization Accelerates: Treasury Holdings Near 4-Year Lows.
• Short-Squeeze Sparks Small-Cap Buying-Panic, Bitcoin Nears Record High.

Newsmax:

• Second Georgia County Finds Previously Uncounted Votes.
  

@kylenabecker:

• Epic Rant from @Jim_Jordan. (video)

Digital Blackboard:

• Daily New Cases by Region.

Worldometer:

• New Cases/Deaths by state.

Rt Covid-19:

• How fast virus is growing by state.

KFF:

• State Data(Tests/Hospitalizations).

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.25 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 33.0 +.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.14 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,130.0 +18.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.35 +1.35%
• FTSE 100 futures -.17%.

• S&P 500 futures -.15%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (AVYA)/1.22
• (LOW)/1.95
• (TGT)/1.61
• (TJX)/.39
  

After the Close:

• (CPRT)/.70
• (JACK)/1.13
• (KLIC)/.31
• (LB)/.06
• (NVDA)/1.92
• (SCVL)/.68
• (SQM)/.22
• (ZTO)/1.49
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Oct. is estimated to rise to 1460K versus 1415K in Sept.
• Building Permits for Oct. is estimated to rise to 1568K versus 1553K in Sept.

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +1,179,330 barrels versus a +4,277,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +62,000 barrels versus a -2,309,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -1,960,580 barrels versus a -5,355,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.64% versus a -.8% decline prior.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia Unemployment report, UK inflation data, Eurozone inflation data, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Goldman Metals/Mining Conference and the (FFIV) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Mounting US Election Fraud Evidence, Virus Fears, Global Growth Worries, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.4 -.22%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,143.0 -36.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.0 -.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.55 unch.

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 38.1 +2.1%

• ISE Sentiment Index 123.0 +2.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .85 +18.1%

• NYSE Arms .67 -13.0%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.50 -.12%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 725.60 -.18%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.64 +1.15%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.11 -.41%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 173.67 +2.57%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.54 +.02%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 unch.

• TED Spread 14.5 +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -13.0 +2.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.25 -.25 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.1 +.75 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.16 +.24%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% unch.

• Yield Curve 73.5 +2.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 122.99 USD/Metric Tonne +.66%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 67.9 +1.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 102.4 +3.7 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.3 -.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.72 -1.0 basis point
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +41 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +34 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +19 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then added them back
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.4%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.2% 2) Healthcare Providers -1.0% 3) Utilities -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• PFE, HD, PRDO, ABC, FSR, ARVN, FLGT, RVMD, DK, VERI, NARI, CYRX, DK, CYRX, JWS, CELH, VLO, SPT, CRNC, MCK, GMS, CAH, IRTC, ACMR, WBA, BSX, CVS, SLP, AQUA, JAMF, PLUG, CODX, RAD and GDRX
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) RIOT 2) FCEL 3) BLNK 4) BCLI 5) FUBO
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) RAD 2) IRTC 3) CRNC 4) ADNT 5) GMS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy +1.6% 2) Gaming +1.1% 3) Shipping +.9%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PLTR, BLNK, SBE, RIDE, FUBO, KSS, SQZ, STRO, SHO, SDC, PANW, COLM and EW
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) LB 2) RIOT 3) MITT 4) PRTY 5) PAA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) CMXX 2) PANW 3) TSLA 4) YY 5) CPRI
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +4.8% Above 100-Day Average
• 0 Sectors Rising, 11 Sectors Declining
• 38.3% of Issues Advancing, 58.5% Declining
• 54 New 52-Week Highs, 2 New Lows
• 79.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 57.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,115.0 -65.0 points
• Vix 22.9 +1.9%
• Total Put/Call .89 +23.6%
• TRIN/Arms .63 -18.2%

Tuesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.0 +.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 32.5 +1.75 basis points.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.0 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 1,218.0 +36.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.70 +.71%
• FTSE 100 futures -.31%.

• S&P 500 futures -.16%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.28%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (ARMK)/-.34
• (HD)/3.02
• (JKS)/.85
• (KSS)/-.44
• (LM)/.85
• (SE)/-.55
• (WMT)/1.19
  

After the Close:

• (LZB)/.47
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +1.9% gain in Sept.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.5% gain in Sept.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +1.5% gain in Sept.
• The Import Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated unch. versus a .3% gain in Sept.
• The Export Price Index MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.6% gain in Sept.
  

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for Oct. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -.6% decline in Sept.
• Capacity Utilization for Oct. is estimated to rise to 72.3% versus 71.5% in Sept.
• Manufacturing Production for Oct. is estimated to rise +1.0% versus a -.3% decline in Sept.
  

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Sept. is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.3% gain in Aug.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for Nov. is estimated at 85.0 versus 85.0 in Oct.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan Trade Data report, Wolfe Healthcare Conference, Jefferies Healthcare Conference, Scotiabank Transport/Industrials Conference, RBC Tech/Internet/Media/Telecom Conference and the (ROK) investor meeting could also impact trading today.

Market Hours
Normal:

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Vaccine Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Energy/Airline Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.5 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 1,100.0 +29.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 128.20 unch.

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.63 +.66%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 41.4 +7.0%

• ISE Sentiment Index 121.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .64 -18.0%

• NYSE Arms .77 -7.2%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 52.66 -3.2%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 727.97 -.84%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.92 -5.6%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 120.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 60.28 +1.08%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 169.99 -2.79%
  

• iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 181.50 +.38%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.75 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 13.75 +.25 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -15.25 +1.25 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  73.5 +.75 basis point
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 70.25 unxh.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.0 +.28%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .08% -1.0 basis point

• Yield Curve 71.0 +1.5 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 120.08 USD/Metric Tonne +.75%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 66.0 -11.6 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 98.7 +5.8 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 59.9 +.6 point

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.73 unch.
• 100.0% chance of no change at Jan. 27th meeting, 100.0% chance of no change at March 17th meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +158 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -43 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On gains in my industrial/tech/consumer staple sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Social Media -.9% 2) Pharma -.8% 3) Video Gaming -.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• FE, KCAC, TDOC, TNDM, RGEN, ZM, QDEL, SILK, VIR, VITL, PFE, VSTO, PGNY, EQT, DLTH, MODN, ANAB, GH, CYTK, TPTX, AMWL, U, FPRX, VRM, TFFP, FPRX, VRM, SPCE, CODX, SPT, NVAX, NLS, CYRX, REZI and RAPT
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VNQ 2) VIAC 3) AEO 4) WMB 5) FCEL
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GOCO 2) TLRY 3) AEP 4) KOD 5) UROV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +3.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Oil Service +7.6% 2) Airlines +6.1% 3) Energy +5.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• HDS, ROAD, GMS, FUBO, CUK, JWN, CRNC, SRG, INO, NCLH, RCL, FLGT, TCO, MRNA, BRX, SPG, BA, UFS, UPWK, EB, SUN, LOB, PK, MSM, MMP, BPYU, AAL, PANW, CNK and HEP
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) RSX 2) BKD 3) AMLP 4) KDP 5) PANW

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ABUS 2) HPE 3) PANW 4) TSN 5) FFIV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +38.4% Above 100-Day Average
• 11 Sectors Rising, 0 Sectors Declining
• 80.2% of Issues Advancing, 17.4% Declining
• 126 New 52-Week Highs, 1 New Low
• 75.2% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.8% 
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 1,157.0 +86.0 points
• Vix 22.9 -1.0%
• Total Put/Call .51 -34.6%
• TRIN/Arms 1.16 +38.6%