Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Israel’s Defense Minister Gives More Details on Plans for Gaza.
• Biden Says Hamas Attack Was to Halt Israel-Saudi Arabia Thaw. 
• Fatal Attack in Brussels Prompts Resignation of Justice Minister.
• EU Says Lack of US Clarity on Tariffs Sank Trade Announcement. 
• Egypt Downgraded Deeper Into Junk by S&P on Currency Squeeze.
• Mega-Cap China Tech Bears Brunt of Deepening Foreigner Exodus.
• Stock Losses Deepen as S&P 500 Breaches Key Level: Markets Wrap. 
• Rates Selloff Seeps Through All Corners of the Credit Market.
• Summers Says Fed Will Have to Engage on Growing US Debt Pile.
• US Supreme Court Allows White House Social Media Contacts for Now.
• Tesla’s Slowing Growth Is Sending a Warning to All EV Makers.
• Nvidia Dip-Buyers Burned by US Chip Battle With China.
• Fed Flags Concerns About Inflation Pressures and Office Market.
• Emails, Wires, Katy Perry: How Sam Bankman-Fried Bought Influence.

Zero Hedge:

• Two Chicagoans Confirmed Released By Hamas, US Presses Israel To Delay Ground Invasion
• Jordan Out As Speaker Candidate After 3rd Loss.
• India Rejects Russian Demand To Pay For Oil In Chinese Yuan.
• "He Not A Terrorist": FBI Arrests Man Living In Parents' Basement For Train Derailment.
• The FDA's Ties To The Gates Foundation.
• "The Whole George Floyd Story Was A Lie": Tucker Carlson.
• Georgia Man Issued $1.4 Million Super Speeder Ticket For Doing 90 In A 55.
• "Children Are Not Social Experiments": Oklahoma Ban On Sex Changes For Minors Upheld By Federal District Court.
• Wealthy House Dem Signals He'll Challenge Biden For 2024 Nomination.
• Russia Will "Pay The Price" For Supporting Gaza: Israeli Official.
• Anheuser-Busch Resorts To 'Bribing' Distributors In Effort To Keep Bud-Light On Shelves.
• Money-Market Fund Assets Crash 'Most Since Lehman' As Bank Deposits Rose Last Week.
• House Investigators Reveal $200,000 "Direct Payment To Joe Biden".
• "No All Clear" - Bitcoin & Bullion Jump, Stocks Dump On Week As Yield-Curve Un-Inverts.
• Stocks sold while weekend haven demand softened by Hamas hostage release - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Kunstler: The Main Question Du Jour Is...
• DOJ Says Trump Has No 'Absolute Immunity' In Jan. 6 Case.
• GM Raises Offer To UAW Ahead Of Union Boss' Bargaining Update.
• G77 Nations, China, Push Back On U.S. "Loss And Damage" Climate Fund In Days Leading Up To UN Summit.

Wall Street Journal:

• Why Hamas Atrocities Lead the Left to Hate Israel More. ‘Cognitive-dissonance reduction’ requires vilifying the victim to uphold one’s prejudices.
• Two American Hostages Released as U.S. Pressures Israel to Delay Gaza Invasion.
• The Chaotic Urban Hellscape That Awaits Israel in a Gaza Invasion.
• Gaza Fighting Risks Resurgence of Terrorist Attacks.
• Trips to Europe Will Require a New Step for U.S. Travelers.
• These Are the Two Scientists Taking Down Cold Medicines That Don’t Work.
• This Drug Could Be the Next Ozempic. Bootlegs Are Already Selling Online.
• Five Investors on Investing in the 5% World.
• Why You Might Be Drinking Too Much Without Knowing It.

CNBC:

• Dow falls nearly 300 points after 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007
• UAW says ‘more to be won’ despite record offers from automakers; declines to expand strikes.
• Tesla stock ends the week down 15%, the worst performance of the year.
• U.S. wraps up fiscal year with a budget deficit near $1.7 trillion, up 23%.
• As mortgage rates hit 8%, home ‘affordability is incredibly difficult,’ economist says.
• Dropbox handing over 25% of San Francisco HQ back to landlord as commercial real estate softens.
• Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX allies secretly poured $50 million into ‘dark money’ groups, evidence shows.

Reuters:

• Inflation, commercial real estate among top financial stability concerns -Fed survey.

MarketWatch.com:

• Netflix is raising prices to get you to watch ads, and it will probably work.
• S&P 500 breaks below key level for first time since March as stocks erase summer gains.
• Inflation is following an ‘eerily similar’ path as the one taken in 1966-1982.

NewsMax:

• Media That Got Gaza Hospital Story Wrong Yet to Apologize, 
• 500 Biden Democrat Staffers Signed Anti-Israel Letter.
• Rep. Comer: Joe Biden's Brother Paid Him $200K in 2018.

Fox News:

• Matt Gaetz slams lawmakers after latest speaker vote, declares Jordan 'knifed'.
• US forces face array of attacks as Biden admin increases Israel support.
• NY Times defends rehiring Gaza journalist who praised Hitler.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: RINOS Win! House GOP Votes IN SECRET BALLOT to Boot Jim Jordan for Speaker by Large Margin 112 to 86… Candidate Forum to be Held Monday.
• EXCLUSIVE from “POLICE STATE” the Movie: Shocking Footage of FBI Smashing in Door of NY Senior for Attending J6 Rally – VIDEO.
• Victor Reacts: Leftist Judge Threatens to JAIL Donald Trump Over Truth Social Post.
• Report: Terrorists Drugged Themselves to Commit Atrocities Against Civilians.
• Angry Palestinian Confronts CNN Reporter During Live Broadcast, Chants “F*ck CNN” and Accuses Leftist Network of Being “Genocide Supporters” (VIDEO).
• VERY SAD. Jim Jordan Speaks to Reporters after GOP Lawmakers Stab Him and Their Voters in the Back with Secret Vote to Dump Him as Speaker – The Most Popular Republican in Congress.
• Texas Secretary of State Releases Election Audit Findings, And They Are Deeply Troubling.
• EXCLUSIVE: Mitt Romney Caught in a Lie – His CIA-Linked Advisor Was Placed on Burisma Board While He Was Impeaching President Trump.
• BREAKING: All 8 Hero Republicans Who Voted to Remove McCarthy From Speakership Are ‘Prepared to Accept Censure, Suspension, or Removal’ From the Republican Conference in Return for Rep. Jim Jordan Being Elected Speaker (VIDEO).
• Autistic 13-Year-Old Israeli Seen in Viral ‘Harry Potter’ Photo and Grandmother Found Murdered in Gaza.
• BREAKING: Jim Jordan Loses Again! – Here are the 25 RINOS Who Betrayed the Conservative Movement and Shot Down Jordan’s Speakership Bid.
• Stunning. Anti-Jim Jordan RINO Caught Partying at the White House on Eve of the Speaker Vote (VIDEO).
• BREAKING: US Navy INTERCEPTS Rockets From Iranian-Backed Militants | Elijah Schaffer’s Top 5 (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Frustration Grows Among Chinese Nationals in Israel Over China's Lack of Evacuation Efforts.
• Chinese Homebuyers Stage Protests Nationwide

Twitter:

• @mirandadevine - 8 million illegal aliens since Biden took office, unvetted, locations unknown. Children trafficked and the government has acknowledged it’s lost track of 85,000, and probably tens of thousands more.
• @zerohedge - Literally every hedge fund is neck deep in energy shorts. What can possibly go wrong. (graph)
• @visegrad24 - Rockets were launched tonight against 2 U.S. targets in Baghdad. The Victory Base Complex & Baghdad Airport both house U.S. troops This vid shows the U.S. trying to shoot down 1 of the rockets Iran-proxies are increasingly aggressive against U.S. forces. (video)
• @kylenabecker - Inside a Hamas Training Camp for Kids That Teaches Them to Kill Israelis. (video)  This is more of the "education" that U.S. taxpayers are paying for through the UNRWA at "Camp Jihad". (video)
• @sentdefender - U.S. Troops have been Attacked in Iraq and Syria over 7 Times in the last 48 Hours and the President of the United States just made absolutely Zero Mention of the Attacks or a Response in his Address to the Nation.
• @iBankCoin4tw - FRENCH POLICE FORCED OUT OF PLACE DE LA RÉPUBLIQUE AS IT IS OVERRUN WITH PRO-PALESTINE PROTESTOOORS. (video)
• @WallStreetSilv - It is already too late. They have reached critical mass. The current governments of the EU don't want to change anything. Everything is proceeding on schedule and according to plan. They don't perceive this to be a problem. This is the plan. They will make the appropriate comments to allow people to think they are doing something, but nothing will change. (video)
• @EndWokeness - Americans are currently held hostage by Hamas and six U.S. military bases were attacked in the past 48 hours And what does Biden give us during his “historic Oval Office address”? A fundraising event for Zelenskyy and a lecture about Islamophobia (0 mention of the U.S. border or China)
• @MattWalshBlog -  How many elected Republicans have said anything about the fact that the Biden Administration just sent a man to federal prison for posting memes making fun of Democrat voters?
• @goddeketal - Never forget that, in the name of science, people were getting arrested simply for soaking up vitamin D at the beach. (pic)
  
• @VigilantFox - 10 Signs You Have a Vaccine Injury and What You Can Do About It: Insights from Top Doctors.
• @Breaking911 - POWERFUL: Columbia Professor Shai Davidai calls out universities for allowing pro-terror demonstrations on campus | "I am speaking up because I am afraid. I am 40-years-old and I was shivering to come to my own employment." (video)
• @stocktalkweekly - This new robot being tested by Amazon makes you realize how imminent the danger is to the average blue collar factory worker. (video)
• @GameofTrades_  - Warning: Credit card interest rates have spiked to 21.19% A level that has NEVER been seen since 1995. This is happening at a time when credit card debt have surpassed $1 trillion And personal interest payments has crossed above $500 billion There is only 1 word to define this: Unsustainable. (graph)

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 988,705 Reports(+1,488 from prior week) Through September 29th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,235.3 -2.1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 33,139.6 -1.5%

• NASDAQ 12,999.3 -2.9%

• Russell 2000 1,686.71 -1.8%

• NYSE FANG+ 7,362.7 -2.9% 
• Roundhill Meme Stock ETF 29.30 -4.3%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 119.7 -4.6%

• Wilshire 5000 41,967.4 -2.2%

• Russell 1000 Growth 2,667.8 -2.6%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,455.91 -1.6%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 711.08 +.94%

• MSCI Cyclicals-Defensives Spread 1,231.64 -1.6%
  

• NYSE Technology 3,525.28 -3.2%

• Transports 14,462.7 -1.5%

• Utilities 809.8 -1.6%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 83.0 -3.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 37.0 -2.7%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 188.5 -1.2%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 103.96 +.16%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 448,672 -.76%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.7 -16.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,073 -561
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -37.5 +5.3%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 321,974 -7.9%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,753,314 -1.9%

• Total Put/Call 1.04 -1.9%

• OEX Put/Call 1.60 -5.1%

• ISE Sentiment 93.0 -26.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms 1.18 +41.0%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.3 -4.1%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.22 -20.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index -.26 -19.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 21.1 +9.4%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .71% -45.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 31.3+15.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.2 +1.7%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.4 -1.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 12,075.8 -2.6%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  66.7 +20.9
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.608 Trillion -1.7%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$8.179 Million

• AAII % Bulls 34.1 -14.8%

• AAII % Bears 34.6 -5.2%

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 286.01 +1.2%

• Crude Oil 88.8/bbl. +1.2%

• Reformulated Gasoline 237.0 +4.7%

• Natural Gas 2.91 -9.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.11 euros/megawatt-hour -7.5%
  

• Heating Oil 316.34 -1.6% 
• Newcastle Coal 142.0 (1,000/metric ton) -3.4%
  

• Gold 1,981.10 +2.4%
• Silver 23.37 +2.8%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 399.69 +.08%

• Copper 355.65 -.4%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 367.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.2 USD/Metric Tonne -3.5%

• CME Lumber  489.5 -3.0%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,593.6 +.93%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 347.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +5.41% +26.0 basis points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% -.6 percentage point
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.27 +14.1%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 351.63 +393.0%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(86 of 500 reporting) +2.2% -12.1 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.28 +.30:  Growth Rate +9.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 17.8 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% -7.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -20.9%
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.31 +.21: Growth Rate +57.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 27.5 -1.0
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.9 +1.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.4 +10.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 +4.6 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0%(-0.0 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 96.2%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(-6.2 percentage points) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 11/1
  

• US Dollar Index 106.2 -.5%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,665.18 -.15%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 29,514.3 +8.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.16 +1.0%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -16.75 +26.5 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.92% +30.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.898 Trillion -.24% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.720 Billion +3.6%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.o4 +10.1%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 207.05 -.02%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 204.0 unch.
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.18 +4.1%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 85.94 +3.3%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 192.5 +4.1%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 137.02 +10.8%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.4 +11.2%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.69 -.32%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 70.2 -5.3%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.2% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +3.7% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.7% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47% +13.0 basis points
  

• TED Spread 21.5 +4.0 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.25 -1.25 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.0 +1.25 basis points
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 80.8 +5.6%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 197.0 +1.3% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351.0 -5.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 102.77 +5.8%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 308.94 +2.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 244.2 +2.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 188.0 +3.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 905.0 -7.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .87 +2.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -3.7% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,216.1 +.5%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 205,750 -.48%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% +10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.8 -.5%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 8.03% +23.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 166,900 -6.9%

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.3% +30.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -5.0% unch.
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $124.0M +15.4%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.56/gallon -.07/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 2,071.0 +6.5%

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 817.20 -.34%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 32.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 39.4 -8.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 267,376 +.73%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,684,362 +20.6%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value +1.5%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -2.6%

Leading Sectors

• Restaurants +3.7%

• Gold & Silver +2.2%
• Medical Equipment +2.2%
  

• Retail +1.3%
  

• Energy +1.1%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -4.1%
  

• Computer Hardware -4.4%
  

• AI/Robotics -4.7%

• Disk Drives -5.0%
  

• Alt Energy -9.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (3)

• KNX, EEFT and SUM
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (15)

• DAR, ASB, ASGN, HRMY, AXP, FITB, BANC, ORCL, HPE, ZION, CMA, WAL and ENPH
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Mid-East Regional War Fears, Tightening US Financial Conditions, Earnings Outlook Worries, Financial/Tech Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 20.7 -3.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .66% -52.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 67.0 -2.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 169.2 +.2%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.42 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 30.0 -4.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call 1.01 -6.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.04 +11.8%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 80.68 -.08%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 381.72 +1.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 351 -3
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 103.67 +3.6% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 308.94 +.66%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 204.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 136.3 +1.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 243.3 -.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 137.02 +6.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.7 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.25 basis points -.5 basis point
  

• TED Spread 21.5 basis points +5.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.75 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 187.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 905.0 -4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 87.0 +2.0 basis points
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.2 +.1%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.46% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.3 USD/Metric Tonne -3.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 51.1 euros/megawatt-hour +1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.9 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.4 +2.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 23.0 -.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(86 of 500 reporting) +2.2% +.3 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 240.28 -.07:  Growth Rate +9.3% unch., P/E 17.7 -.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.11% -1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) -20.9%
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.31 -.35: Growth Rate +57.7% -.2 percentage point, P/E 27.5 -.8
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.21 -6.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index -.26 +67.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -16.75 basis points (2s/10s) +1.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 2Q GDPNow Forecast +5.41% unch.
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +3.70% unch.: CPI YoY +3.36% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.47 -3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 13th FOMC meeting: 73.1%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 31st meeting: 65.9%(+4.6 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -34 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -89 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +111 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my transport sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: Market Neutral
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Alt Energy -3.1% 2) Regional Banks -2.8% 3) Oil Service -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TEAM, HSBC, JD, WBS, AXP, SNV, MTB, SDRL, ZS, MTZ, DNLI, OFIX, PANW, SNV, PLL, SGML, SDRL, BEAM, HLIT, DO, NET, SMCI, CSIQ, SIX, COLB, EH, BANR, GGAL, ALKT, DVA, FHN, PLTR, USB, PSFE, GNRC, KEY, ZION, HRMY, BHLB, EH, RUN, MNDY, FITB, CMA, PKX, TRUP, ORCL, HPE, SGH, JKS, APGE, WAL, FLNC, SHYF, ENPH and SEDG
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ROST 2) ADM 3) RF 4) ISRG 5) ASHR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) SEDG 2) ENPH 3) RF 4) RUN 5) HPE
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Road & Rail +.5% 2) Gold & Silver +.4% 3) Education +.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• KNX, EEFT, BOWL and SMTC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) VGK 2) RF 3) ACWI 4) SEDG 5) FITB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) KNX 2) LIPO 3) EEFT 4) BOWL 5) ALV
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BOH)/.97

After the Close: 

• (BRO)/.62
• (CDNS)/1.20
• (CALX)/.36
• (CLS)/.60
• (CLF)/.43
• (CR)/.87
• (CCK)/1.73
• (HXL)/.43
• (PKG)/1.93
• (AAN)/.07
  

Economic Releases  

8:30 am EST:

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to -.01 versus -.16 in Aug.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Australia PMI report and the (STLA) business update could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• NYSE Volume Running +4.2% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 6.3 -2.5
  
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 33.6% of Issues Advancing, 63.1% Declining
• 4 New 52-Week Highs, 280 New Lows
• 29.1%(-3.1%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 36.0 -5
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 66.3 -3.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 17,911.6 -.56%
  
• 1-Day Vix 17.3 -15.4%
  
• Vix 21.5 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .98 -9.3%
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +16.1%
  

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.75% to -.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 135.5 +2.75 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 86.5 +3.0 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 115.4 USD/Metric Tonne -1.3%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 41.13 -.07%
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.3 +2.4%. 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.19 -4.0 basis points.
  
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 +.51%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.93%.

• S&P 500 futures -.22%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.33%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into the day.