Friday, July 22, 2011

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • Oslo Bomb at Government Office Kills Seven; Shooting Deaths at Youth Camp May Be Linked. A bomb blast tore through central Oslo, shattering windows at the prime minister’s office and nearby buildings and killing at least two people. At least seven people are now being treated at Oslo University Hospital, spokesman Jo Heldaas said. Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg wasn’t in the building at the time and is safe, spokesman Oeivind Oestang said by phone. The blast, which was reported to police at 3:26 p.m., was followed by a shooting at a Norwegian Labor Party youth gathering that left four dead and several injured, newspaper Varden reported. The attacks may be linked, Police Chief of Staff Einar Aas said. “The police can confirm that there are fatalities and injured people as a result of the explosion at the government offices,” the police said in a statement. “Large sections of the center of Oslo have been evacuated and the police are urging people to stay away from the center of the city and limit their use of mobile phones.” Three terrorist suspects with possible ties to al-Qaeda were arrested last year in Norway.
  • Greece Leads Plunge in Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps After Rescue Package. Greece led a decline in the cost of insuring against a default on European government bonds after politicians agreed on an aid package to end the 21-month-old sovereign crisis and prevent contagion to Spain and Italy. Swaps on Greece plunged 500 basis points to a six-week low of 1,500 as of 12:15 p.m. in London, dropping the most on record. The Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of default swaps tied to 15 governments fell 20 basis points to 243. Contracts insuring Italian debt fell 29 basis points to 224, Spain was down 24 basis points to 284, Portugal declined 108 basis points to 836 and Ireland dropped 97.5 basis points to 810, CMA prices show. Swaps on Greece are down from an all-time high of 2,568 basis points on that same day, and still signal a 72 percent chance the nation will default within five years, according to CMA. The Markit iTraxx Crossover Index of 40 European companies with mostly high-yield credit ratings fell 11 basis points to 408, while the Markit iTraxx Financial Index linked to senior debt of 25 banks and insurers dropped 5 basis points to 159, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
  • Fitch Ratings Says Greece Faces 'Restricted Default' After New Debt Plan. Fitch Ratings said Greece faces "restricted default’' after euro-area leaders agreed on a new bailout for the nation that would involve contributions from bondholders. The private sector involvement in a new deal “in Fitch’s opinion, constitutes an event of ‘Restricted Default,’” the ratings company said in a statement today. “According to the Institute for International Finance, the proposed debt exchange implies a 20 percent net present value loss for banks and other holders of Greek government debt. An exchange that offers new securities with terms that are worse than the original contractual terms of the existing debt and where the sovereign is subject to financial distress constitutes a default event under Fitch’s ‘Coercive Debt Exchange Criteria.’”
  • ISDA Says EU's Aid Package 'Shouldn't Trigger' Greece Credit-Default Swaps. The International Swaps & Derivatives Association said participation of private bondholders in the Greek rescue plan “should not trigger credit-default swaps” on the nation because it’s “expressly voluntary.”
  • Rice to Rally as Global Demand, Thai Buying Stoke Increased Export Prices. Rice prices may advance as global demand increases and a new government in Thailand, the largest shipper, pays farmers above-market rates for supplies and pushes up export costs, the Thai Rice Exporters Association said. “Demand is still filtering into the market non-stop,” Korbsook Iamsuri, president of the group, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television today. The extent of the gains will be determined by the volume of grain that Thailand’s new government buys and the design of its plan, said Korbsook. Higher prices of rice, staple for half the world, would fuel global food costs that reached an all-time high in February, according to United Nations’ gauge. Rice is already this year’s best-performing grain after farmers in the U.S., the third- largest exporter, switched to other crops. Rice has “a massive food-inflation potential,” said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services Pty., who correctly predicted a rally last week. “That’s something that needs to be widely watched.”
  • Corporates 'Ripe' for Third-Quarter Buybacks, Meli Says. Corporations are facing “ripe” conditions for buying back shares, pursuing mergers and acquisitions and increasing debt after hoarding cash since 2009, said Barclays Capital’s Jeffrey Meli. “Conditions will be ripe once macro-volatility settles down in the third quarter for corporations to start getting more aggressive with their balance sheets,” Meli, head of credit strategy at the firm in New York, said today in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness with Margaret Brennan.” “Some of the lessons from 2009 in terms of needing to hoard cash, needing to run very conservative balance sheets, are starting to fade.”
  • Gold Approaches Record High on Haven Demand Amid U.S., Europe Debt Anxiety. Gold approached a record high on demand for an investment haven amid persistent debt concerns in the U.S. and Europe. Greece faces a “restricted default,” Fitch Ratings said, after European leaders agreed yesterday to an additional bailout. U.S. lawmakers are still debating on raising the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling before the government runs out of cash on Aug. 2. Gold reached a record $1,610.70 an ounce on July 19. “There’s a clamor for gold as the printing presses go off around the world,” Adam Klopfenstein, a strategist at Lind- Waldock, a broker in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “The U.S. and Europe have structural problems, and there’s a camp of investors that are willing to buy until these problems are fixed.” Gold futures for August delivery rose $17.20, or 1.1 percent, to $1,604.20 at 11:10 a.m. on the Comex in New York.
  • New York Fed Fails to Amend Conflict Rules After Dudley Waiver. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York failed to revise conflict-of-interest rules to reflect its responsibility for a broader array of financial firms under the Dodd-Frank Act passed a year ago, the Government Accountability Office said yesterday. The New York Fed hasn’t changed its “policies and procedures to more fully reflect potential conflicts that could arise with this expanded role,” the GAO said in a report. It showed that a New York Fed official, separately identified as William C. Dudley, now the bank’s president, received a waiver in 2008 to keep shares of insurer American International Group Inc. after it was bailed out by the central bank. Fed staff will be involved in overseeing a wider range of companies after Dodd-Frank gave it authority over non-bank firms, such as insurers, whose failure could pose a risk to the financial system. That may give rise to potential conflicts like the one involving the ownership of AIG shares by Dudley, who was head of the New York Fed’s markets group in 2008. “They should simply say that staff -- at least senior staff -- must sell stock in all financial services firms,” said Richard Painter, former White House ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush. “If one waits until a crisis arises, insider- trading law may make it impossible to sell. And recusal may not be a good option for the most senior officials. Waiver of the conflict looks bad -- very bad.”
  • Apple(AAPL) Surpasses Lenovo Revenue in China on Strength of iPhone, iPad Sales. Apple Inc. (AAPL) may have surpassed Lenovo Group Ltd. (992)’s revenue in China and surrounding region for the first time in at least a decade as the iPhone-maker’s surge in sales hurt growth at the biggest Chinese computer maker. Lenovo’s combined revenue in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan last quarter lagged behind the $3.8 billion for Apple, according to four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Deadly Attacks Shake Norway. Norway's capital was shaken Friday by a powerful explosion at the government headquarters that left at least seven dead and several injured, an incident that was followed by an attack at a youth camp outside the capital. The bomb blast in central Oslo damaged a number of buildings, including the finance ministry and the government headquarters, but Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg, was unhurt, according to his spokeswoman.
  • Senate Rejects GOP Budget Plan. The Senate on Friday rejected a House Republican budget proposal, a symbolic vote that came as the White House and congressional leaders tried to seal a bipartisan agreement to raise the U.S. debt ceiling and avoid a financial crisis. The Senate voted 51-46 to set aside consideration of the Republican "Cut, Cap and Balance" plan.
  • Will Congress Kill Your Favorite Tax Deductions? Some people call them "tax loopholes," while others prefer "tax breaks." In Congress, they are often called "tax expenditures." Whichever term of art you prefer, hundreds of tax deductions, credits and exclusions that taxpayers rely on every year are at risk of being cut. Here is a rundown of the Joint Tax Committee's top 10 tax expenditures, along with their 2010-14 revenue cost.
  • U.N. Clears China Sea-Floor Plan. Beijing's First Manned Deep-Sea Craft, the Jiaolong, Will Explore the Ocean Floor for Minerals. As China's first manned deep-sea craft prepared for a landmark dive to 5,000 meters, or 16,400 feet, that surpasses current U.S. capabilities, a United Nations body approved Beijing's plan to explore a swath of ocean floor between Africa and Antarctica for metal deposits.
  • McDonald's(MCD) Profit Gains 15% on McCafe Drinks. McDonald’s Corp. (MCD), the world’s largest restaurant chain, said second-quarter profit rose 15 percent, topping analysts’ estimates, as more consumers dined out and McCafe beverages boosted sales. McDonald’s rose $2.43, or 2.8 percent, to $88.97 at 10:28 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.
  • Caterpillar(CAT) Profit Misses Estimates on Japan. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), the world’s largest construction and mining-equipment maker, posted lower- than-expected profit for the first time in 10 quarters after the Japanese earthquake and tsunami reduced sales, demand slowed in China and manufacturing costs rose. Caterpillar dropped $7.18, or 6.4 percent, to $104.42 as of 10:30 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Caterpillar saw “some softening of growth” in China, Oberhelman said in the statement.
  • Ford(F) Irks Obama Administration, Rivals, With Conflicting Fuel Economy Stands. Ford Motor Co. managed to miff both the Obama administration and its Detroit counterparts this week during negotiations to toughen up federal fuel economy laws. The White House is rushing to strike a deal that both environmentalists and the U.S. auto industry can live with that would roughly double corporate average fuel economy. Ford, which didn’t take federal bailout money as did rivals General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC, had been winning political points by positioning itself as the Detroit auto maker most willing to accept tough measures. Things became awkward this week when administration officials learned that Ford was a driving force behind a radio ad campaign critical of the standards, according to several people with knowledge of the situation.
  • Politicians Put Pressure on Murdoch.
  • Jobless Rate Rises in Most U.S. States. The unemployment rate increased in 28 states in June, reflecting the nationwide increase to 9.2% from 9.1% over the month, the Labor Department said. Some 14 states saw their unemployment rate hold steady while eight logged decreases.
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
  • EFSF and Sovereign CDS Pitchbook Updates. The conclusion: The reality is that Germany, France, and the Netherlands, or maybe just Germany, will have to guarantee a combined 100% of EFSF issuance. The original EFSF made a lot of effort to protect EFSF loans from losses. All that those protections are gone and any rational investor has to assume the EFSF will have large mark to market losses up front and potentially large realized losses over time. You would only lend to EFSF if it was fully backed by the AAA members, and ideally Germany as they are the strongest and biggest by far. It remains to be seen if the entire market sees it this way, and if they do, will Germany be willing to provide that much support? I remain highly skeptical that this plan will ever be implemented in a meaningful way because it will place too much pressure on the AAA nations.
  • Norway Bomb Explosion Aftermath Video.
Drugs.com:
  • Survey Suggests 'Sexting' Rampant in College. A survey of college students suggests that "sexting" is rampant: More than half said they have received sexual images on their phones, and almost eight in 10 said they've gotten suggestive text messages. Two-thirds of the students surveyed said they'd sent suggestive text messages. Of those, 10 percent passed them on without consent of the person who first sent them. "It is important to help everyone, especially students, understand the importance of setting boundaries around their use of technology," research co-leader Tiffani S. Kisler, an assistant professor at the University of Rhode Island, said in a news release from the university.
Apple Insider:
Politico:
  • Dodd-Frank Does Nothing to Change Wall Street. It’s been a year since President Barack Obama signed the Dodd-Frank Wall Street bill, yet little has changed for the better in our financial markets — and much has changed for the worse. Dodd-Frank promised the American public an end to the notion of “too big to fail.” Though the act offers government the tools to resolve failing firms without cost to the taxpayer, it leaves regulators the option of not liquidating those firms or doing so while protecting bondholders and charging the red ink to the taxpayer or to the rest of the financial services industry. Not only has Dodd-Frank failed to end too big to fail; it has extended the federal safety net. The much-heralded derivatives provisions actually, for the first time, set up a process where clearinghouses can access the Federal Reserve’s discount window. Instead of reducing risk in the derivatives market, the act aggregates that risk into a few entities, then wraps an implicit guarantee around those same entities. In addition, the more than doubling of the ceiling for insured bank deposits grossly reduces market discipline, while putting the taxpayer further on the hook for any Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. losses.
Rasmussen Reports:
  • Daily Presidential Tracking Poll. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 25% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15 (see trends).
Reuters:
  • ECB Says Weber's Move to UBS Presents No Conflict. Former Bundesbank chief and European Central Bank policymaker Axel Weber's move to the board of Swiss bank UBS is in accord with the ECB's governance rules, it said on Friday. "The Governing Council assessed Axel Weber's future position as a member of the board of directors of UBS with effect from May 1, 2012 as being compatible with the Code of Conduct," the ECB said in a summary of decisions taken by the Governing Council.
  • Customers Angry, Staff Defiant at China's Fake Apple(AAPL) Store. "When I heard the news I rushed here immediately to get the receipt, I am so upset," a customer surnamed Wang told Reuters, near tears. "With a store this big, it looks so believable who would have thought it was fake?" Customers at an apparent Apple Store in the Chinese city of Kunming berated staff and demanded refunds on Friday after the shop was revealed to be an elaborate fake, sparking a media and Internet frenzy. Long a target of counterfeiters and unauthorized resellers, Apple Inc was alerted to the near flawless fake shop by an American blogger living in the southwestern city, more than 1,000 miles from the nearest genuine Apple stores in Beijing and Shanghai. Staff were also angry at the unwanted attention after more than 1,000 media outlets picked up the story and pictures of the store from the BirdAbroad blog. "The media is painting us to be a fake store but we don't sell fakes, all our products are real, you can check it yourself," said one employee, who didn't want to give his name. "There is no Chinese law that says I can't decorate my shop the way I want to decorate it."
  • Wall Street Still Gives Big Cash to Obama. Despite howls of protests from many on Wall Street over some of President Barack Obama's policies, financial sector employees are giving at a greater rate to his re-election bid than during his last campaign. One-third of the funds hauled in by Obama's big-money backers came from executives and others linked to the financial world, according to a report from the Center for Responsive Politics released on Friday. The financial sector accounted for about 20 percent of what Obama's top fundraisers raised during his 2008 bid.
Handelsblatt:
  • The euro area's new aid to Greece reveals "negligence" toward taxpayers' interests and an unacceptable lack of accountability for indebted states, the vice president of Germany's taxpayers lobby said. "The EU decision that the bailout fund in the future can buy debt of states in crisis by itself seals the transformation into a liability union," he said.
Caixin:CCTV:
  • China will continue its proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy in the second half this year with stabilizing prices as a priority, citing President Hu Jintao.

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value (-.19%)
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Tobacco -1.27% 2) Medical Equipment -1.19% 3) Defense -1.09%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
  • BCR, OLN, MMSI, CAT, BAS, CSTR, BIG, AVID, EZPW, HGSI, HWAY, BJRI, GPN, ACO, EW, MOH, SFG, COL, NRGY, RAI, CALX and USG
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ERTS 2) CX 3) ESRX 4) MHS 5) ONTY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SATC 2) AF 3) DSX 4) THC 5) TXI
Charts:

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Growth (+.62%)
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +3.01% 2) Computer Hardware +2.01% 3) Restaurants +1.50%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • SWKS, SNDK, WDC, CPX, UDRL, MCD, CMG, HEES, VRUS, AIXG, DOV, ATHN, CPHD, RYAAY, CYMI, TZOO, APKT, ACTG, CVV, ESRX, INFA, IDXX, PLCM, VSAT, RPXC, STX, CAVM, UTEK, HAS, IIT, RRR, ACTG, NCR, SLB, MHS, CB, FFIV, RMBS, ZINC, MOS, RVBD, GDI and CPX
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ESRX 2) DHI 3) MCD 4) SWKS 5) ALU
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) SNDK 2) AAPL 3) GOOG 4) WMT 5) BA
Charts:

Friday Watch


Evening Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • EU Leaders Offer $229 Billion in New Greek Aid. Euro-area leaders redoubled efforts to end the 21-month sovereign bond crisis as they erected a firewall around Spain and Italy and risked temporary default to lighten Greece’s debt burden. After eight hours of talks in Brussels, leaders announced 159 billion euro ($229 billion) in new aid for Greece late yesterday and cajoled bondholders into footing part of the bill. They also empowered their 440-billion euro rescue fund to buy debt across stressed euro nations after a market rout last week sparked concern the crisis was spreading. The fund can also aid troubled banks and offer credit-lines to repel speculators. The euro strengthened as officials drew concessions from Germany, the European Central Bank and investors for a twin- track strategy to support Greece and ensure its woes don’t spread.
  • Spies in China Said to Be Behind IMF Hacking. Investigators probing the recent ransacking of International Monetary Fund computers have concluded the attack was carried out by cyber spies connected to China, according to two people close to the investigation. Evidence pointing to China includes an analysis of the attack methods, as well as the electronic trail left by hackers as they removed large quantities of documents from the IMF’s computers. The multistaged attack, which used U.S.-based servers as part of their equipment, ended on May 31, people involved in the investigation said on the condition they not be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak about it. Their conclusion is likely to be a major test for the new IMF chief, Christine Lagarde, who this month appointed Chinese economist Zhu Min as deputy managing director, giving China a much expanded role in the institution. “There are some very big questions about the role that China wants to play in the global economic system and what role it can play given some of its behavior,” said C. Fred Bergsten, who heads the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics. The timing of the attack and China’s lobbying for more influence at the Fund appear to overlap, creating a potentially embarrassing situation for China among the IMF’s 186 other members, including the U.S. “As an intelligence professional, I stand back in absolute awe and wonderment at the Chinese espionage effort against the United States of America,” Gen. Michael Hayden, the former CIA director, said at cyber security conference last year. “It is magnificent in its breath, its depth and its efficiency.”
  • Democrats Balk at Potential U.S. Debt-Limit Deal. Democrats reacted angrily to reports that the White House is cutting a deal with House Republicans to boost the U.S. debt ceiling and reduce deficits by about $3 trillion over 10 years without immediate revenue increases. The officials, who described outlines of the plan on condition of anonymity, said the leaders were told it would cut spending while calling for a future tax overhaul that could raise $1 trillion in additional revenue. Obama met with Democratic leaders from the House and Senate at the White House for about two hours. The administration and House Republicans remain divided over the fate of the cuts for top earners passed during President George W. Bush’s administration and how much revenue would be raised to trim the long-term federal deficit, said two Democratic officials familiar with the negotiations. Obama wants spending cuts to be gradual, with the fullest effects not felt until 2014 and beyond, to avoid shaking the still-fragile recovery, the officials said, briefing reporters on condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door talks. While discretionary spending cuts could be immediate, changes in the tax code and entitlement programs would be worked out over the next year, the officials said.
  • Qaddafi Increases Chances He Could Stay. The U.S., the U.K., Italy and France now say they’re willing to accept an outcome in Libya that would allow Muammar Qaddafi avoid exile or a trial on war crimes charges. After conducting four months of daily bombings, NATO-led allies are willing to let Qaddafi stay in Libya on the condition that he gives up power.
  • Shrinking Cattle Herd Signals Beef Rising to Record, Higher Wendy's Costs. The U.S. cattle herd as of July 1 probably shrunk to the smallest on record, signaling tightening beef supplies and higher costs for shoppers and companies from Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) to Wendy’s Co. Ranchers held 99.39 million head of cattle as of July 1, down 1.4 percent from a year earlier, according to the average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would be the smallest July herd since at least 1973, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture data begins. The government plans to release its semiannual report on the herd at 3 p.m. today in Washington. “If you’ve got fewer cattle, ultimately you’re going to have less beef,” Ron Plain, a livestock economist at the University of Missouri in Columbia, said yesterday in a telephone interview. “We’re going to have new record cattle and beef prices in 2012.”
  • H-P(HPQ) Authorizes $10 Billion in New Stock Buyback. Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), the world’s largest computer maker, plans to buy back $10 billion of its stock, part of an effort to buoy its languishing shares. The plan comes in addition to the an earlier buyback plan announced last year, Palo Alto, California-based Hewlett-Packard said today in a regulatory filing.
  • Morgan Stanley(MS) Banking, Debt Trading Surpass Goldman First Time. Morgan Stanley (MS)’s second-quarter revenue from both investment banking and fixed-income trading beat Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS)’s for the first time on record. Fixed-income trading generated $2.09 billion for Morgan Stanley and investment banking brought in $1.47 billion, while Goldman Sachs reported $1.6 billion and $1.45 billion, respectively. New York-based Morgan Stanley has never outperformed its larger rival in both those businesses simultaneously in the 11 years it’s reported fixed-income trading results, company filings show.
  • Goldman(GS) Model Championed by Blankfein Planted Seeds of Distress. Bungled public relations and a thirst to find a scapegoat for the worst U.S. economic crisis since the Great Depression may explain some of the shift in the firm’s reputation under Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lloyd C. Blankfein. The mistrust and waning investor faith in the company’s prospects are rooted in something more fundamental: Blankfein’s reliance on trading and investing the bank’s own capital to reap profits, even if that meant sometimes competing with clients.
  • Express Scripts's(ESRX) Bid for Medco(MHS) Will Get Close Scrutiny From Regulators. Express Scripts Inc.’s bid to buy Medco Health Solutions Inc. may undergo an extended antitrust review at the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, where close examination of companies that manage prescription-drug benefits stretches back more than a decade.
  • Apple(AAPL) Said to Consider Making Bid for Hulu. Apple Inc. (AAPL), with $76.2 billion in cash and securities on its books, is considering making a bid for the Hulu online video service, two people with knowledge of the auction said. Apple, the world’s second-most-valuable company, is in early talks that may lead to an offer for Hulu, said the people, who weren’t authorized to speak publicly. Hulu would give Apple a new subscription service and represent a possible challenge to Netflix Inc. (NFLX) Hulu’s media- company owners, Walt Disney Co. (DIS), News Corp. (NWSA) and Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)’s NBC Universal, are offering suitors a five-year extension of program rights, including two years of exclusive access, people familiar with the matter said earlier this week. “Part of the ecosystem of Apple’s future is to include more video,” said Scott Sutherland, Wedbush Securities Inc. analyst in San Francisco who recommends buying the stock. “It’s something they are focused on.” Hulu’s price tag could exceed $2 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and SNL Kagan.
  • China One-Year Swap Jumps to Record as Maturing Debt Declines.
  • NFL Owners Vote to End Four-Month Lockout, Pending Players' Ratification. National Football League owners voted 31-0 for a new 10-year labor agreement and now await players’ approval so the league can reopen for business next week after a four-month shutdown. The vote, taken today in Atlanta, moved the NFL closer toward ensuring that the regular season of the richest and most-watched U.S. sport will begin on time on Sept. 8.
  • Emerging-market equity funds reported withdrawals of $1.1 billion in the week ended July 20, snapping three straight weeks of new inflows, Citigroup Inc.(C) said in a report today.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Europe Launches a Massive Greek Bailout. Euro-zone leaders agreed Thursday on a new €109 billion ($157 billion) bailout for Greece and new steps to prevent its debt crisis from metastasizing across the Continent—in a plan expected to trigger the first debt default by a nation using the common currency. The meeting also produced a stark and open-ended declaration: The wider euro zone is committed to financing countries that take bailouts—thus far, Greece, Ireland and Portugal—for as along as it takes them to regain access to private lenders. The move is a bold bid by Europe's leaders to corral an 18-month-old debt crisis that is veering dangerously out of control. Still, it remains to be seen whether the tourniquet will hold. Even after the new plan, Greece will have a staggering load of debt.
  • A Guide to the New Deal in Athens: How a 'Selective Default' Works.
  • Uncle Sam Weighs Landlord Role to Ease Housing Slump. The Obama administration is examining ways to pull foreclosed properties off the market and rent them to help stabilize the housing market, according to people familiar with the matter. While the plans may not advance beyond the concept phase, they are under serious consideration by senior administration officials because rents are rising even as home prices in many hard-hit markets continue to fall due to high foreclosure levels.
  • Justice Department Prepares Subpoenas in News Corp.(NWSA) Inquiry. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York again is facing scrutiny over stockholdings held by a senior official during the 2008 financial crisis. Then-New York Fed President Timothy Geithner issued a waiver that allowed William Dudley—executive vice president of the regional Fed bank's markets group—to work on the controversial bailout of American International Group Inc. even though he held shares in the company, according to a congressional audit report released Thursday.
  • Google+ Pulls In 20 Million In 3 Weeks. When Google Inc.(GOOG) launched its Google+ social-networking site three weeks ago, executives handed out sailor hats to the hundreds of employees working on the project, symbolizing their year-long journey to that point. So far, the sailing has been mostly smooth. On Wednesday, Web-traffic watcher comScore Inc. estimated Google+ has had 20 million unique visitors since its launch, including five million visitors from the U.S. A Google spokeswoman declined comment.
CNBC:
Business Insider:
Zero Hedge:
Forbes:
CNNMoney:
Hedge Fund Law Blog:
Neal Boortz:
  • The Economy Stalled After Obamacare Passed. A few reasons as to why ObamaCare discourages employers from hiring: Businesses with fewer than 50 workers have a strong incentive to maintain this size, which allows them to avoid the mandate to provide government-approved health coverage or face a penalty; Businesses with more than 50 workers will see their costs for health coverage rise—they must purchase more expensive government-approved insurance or pay a penalty; and Employers face considerable uncertainty about what constitutes qualifying health coverage and what it will cost. They also do not know what the health care market or their health care costs will look like in four years. This makes planning for the future difficult.
The Blaze:
Financial Times:
  • European Banks Could Face $23 Billion Writedown on Greece.European banks would need to write down as much as $23 billion on holdings of Greek debt should they have to take a 20% haircut on the bonds, citing its own analysis of the 90 banks recently subjected to stress tests. Auditors have warned banks to make provisions for losses on Greek bonds in their second-quarter results, arguing lenders should absorb losses now because almost any proposals for dealing with Greek restructuring would lessen the value of their bondholdings.
  • Bond Swap Plan Is For Greece and Greece Only. Private creditor participation in Greece’s latest rescue programme will be very strictly limited to the Greek crisis and will be specifically excluded as a model for any other eurozone country in financial difficulties.
Telegraph:
  • European Deal Could Lead to Two-Speed Europe. European leaders thrashed out an agreement to save the stricken euro last night, with a major step towards a full economic union in which taxpayers in rich nations would cover the spending of poorer ones. The attempt to bail-out Greece and other struggling eurozone countries raised the prospect of a two-speed European Union with far closer ties between countries using the euro compared with those, such as Britain, that remained outside. Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, said the deal had pulled the eurozone back from the brink of disaster and laid foundations for the creation of an EU “economic government”. He hailed it as “a historic moment” that would provide “bold and ambitious” plans for the creation of an embryonic EU treasury in the form of a European Monetary Fund. “By the end of the summer, Angela Merkel and I will be making joint proposals on economic government in the eurozone. Our ambition is to seize the Greek crisis to make a quantum leap in eurozone government,” he said. Even large euro countries such as Italy and Spain have seen their borrowing costs jump, raising fears of a financial crisis that could destroy the single currency. In response, eurozone leaders meeting in Brussels were drawing up a deal that would effectively use money from successful northern economies such as Germany to support the budgets of indebted nations in southern Europe. The agreement being discussed last night will hugely expand the role of a €440  billion (£389 billion) eurozone emergency bail-out fund, effectively creating a European Monetary Fund. The fund will be able to make “precautionary” loans to eurozone members, which they could use instead of borrowing money from the markets. It will also be able to make loans to recapitalise banks in the weaker economies and buy back government bonds from private investors. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, was forced to cave in to French demands to significantly extend the role of the EFSF, to which Germany provides more than a quarter of the funding. German officials said Mrs Merkel was braced for a major political row as taxpayers in Germany recoiled from a step that will redistribute their money to highly indebted Mediterranean countries.
Caixin:
  • Bank of China Ltd. may be selected by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision as one of the world's systemically important banks and face higher capital requirements, citing a person close to the Chinese lender.
South China Morning Post:
  • SMEs Heading for Financial Collapse, Beijing Warned. A leading Chinese business lobby on the mainland has raised the alarm over the looming failure of the nation's small and medium-sized private enterprises, urging the central government to take concrete measures to help the ailing sector.
China Daily:
  • China's export growth will "decelerate" in coming months which may cause some factories to close, citing Zhang Ji, director general of the Ministry of Commerce's mechanical, electronic and high-tech industries department. As domestic and global business conditions deteriorate, some manufacturers and exporters might struggle and some will go bankrupt, Zhang was quoted as saying. Factors including rising labor and raw material costs, yuan appreciation and tighter monetary policy will continue to hurt China's exports, the official said.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (GR), raised estimates, boosted target to $118.
  • Reiterated Buy on (NUE), target $53.
  • Reiterated Buy on (CBE), target $71.
Crowell, Weedon:
  • Reiterated Buy on (CAKE), target $36.
Night Trading
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 115.0 -4.0 basis points.
  • Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 119.25 -3.75 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures +.25%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.13%.
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (MCD)/1.28
  • (APD)/1.46
  • (STI)/.31
  • (IDXX)/.72
  • (VZ)/.55
  • (COL)/1.04
  • (CAT)/1.74
  • (FLIR)/.35
  • (HON)/.98
  • (SLB)/.85
  • (GE)/.32
  • (CKH)/.68
Economic Releases
  • None of note
Upcoming Splits
  • (CLH) 2-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by commodity and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Stocks Surging Into Final Hour on Plunging Eurozone Debt Angst, More US Debt Ceiling Optimism, Less Financial Sector Pessimism, Buyout Speculation


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 17.66 -7.70%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 135.0 -33.17%
  • Total Put/Call .71 -10.13%
  • NYSE Arms .79 -13.47%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 92.73 -1.91%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 139.83 -2.90%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 290.83 -1.91%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 220.11 -3.18%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 25.0 -2 bps
  • TED Spread 22.0 -2 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .03% +1 bp
  • Yield Curve 260.0 +3 bps
  • China Import Iron Ore Spot $174.10/Metric Tonne +.58%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -93.80 +.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.38% +7 bps
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating +120 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +38 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my Tech, Biotech, Retail and Medical sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish as the S&P 500 trades near session highs on plunging eurozone debt angst, more US debt ceiling optimism, financial sector strength, buyout speculation and earnings optimism. On the positive side, Road & Rail, Bank, I-Banking, Tobacco, Homebuilding, Construction, Paper, Steel, Defense, Energy, Semi and Biotech shares are especially strong, rising more than +2.0%. (XLF) has substantially outperformed throughout the day again. The Transports are also relatively strong. The France sovereign cds is dropping -2.91% to 100.0 bps, the Spain sovereign cds is down -9.30% to 309.34 bps, the Italy sovereign cds is down -12.05% to 252.50 bps, the Belgium sovereign cds is falling -19.72% to 152.77 bps, the Ireland sovereign cds is falling -13.89% to 912.76 bps, the Portugal sovereign cds is falling -13.37% to 946.27 bps, the Greece sovereign cds is falling -14.5% to 2,027.80 bps and the UK sovereign cds is declining -3.29% to 66.71 bps. Moreover, the Eurozone Investment Grade CDS Index is dropping -4.5% to 94.54 bps. Spanish and Italian equities surged around +3.0% today, finishing at session highs. Gold is falling -.81% and lumber is gaining +1.5%. On the negative side, Education, Networking, Disk Drive and Computer Hardware shares are lower on the day. Tech stocks, in general, are lagging badly today. Oil is rising +1.0% and copper is falling -1.13%. Rice is rising +.48%, hovering near a multi-year high, and has soared almost +30.0% in about 2 weeks. The US price for a gallon of gas is +.01/gallon today at $3.69/gallon. It is up .55/gallon in less than 5 months. Chinese and Indian equities were lower again overnight and have been unable to rally with the rest of the world over the past two days. The large decline in many key eurozone sovereign cds is a large positive even as the longer-term debt problems in the region loom as large as ever. US stock earnings have been surprisingly strong so far, notwithstanding the recent downtick in global economic activity. I suspect any US debt ceiling deal will occur next week at the earliest, notwithstanding today's NYT report. Any solution to this issue would provide another upside catalyst for stocks. However, I continue to believe the slowing growth and rising inflation in key emerging markets remains more of an issue than is currently perceived. Two of my longs, (SXCI) and (VRX) are making record highs today. I still see substantial upside for these shares over the longer-term. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on plunging eurozone debt angst, more US debt ceiling optimism, financial sector strength, short-covering, bargain-hunting, buyout speculation, earnings optimism and technical buying.