Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- American Stocks Become Sweet Spot as Emerging Markets Tighten. Price pressures are pushing emerging-market central banks from Russia to China to raise interest rates this year, tarnishing the appeal of their stocks and increasing investor interest in the U.S. Tighter monetary policy means officials in developing nations will break further with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. He has pledged to keep rates near zero for an extended period and continue stimulus plans to power a recovery now gathering momentum. The shift is causing Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- which coined the term BRIC to highlight the power of Brazil, Russia, India and China -- to dilute its support for stocks of emerging countries, saying it no longer expects them to outperform the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. JPMorgan Chase & Co. also has reversed a bias toward these equities. Developing “markets are on the frontline of the inflation fight,” said Eric Fine, a portfolio manager in New York who helps Van Eck Associates Corp. oversee $3 billion in emerging- market assets. “This is the year when the trade-off between inflation and growth becomes even harder.” The combination of accelerating growth in economies such as the U.S. with little pressure for tighter policy may be creating a “sweet spot” for their asset markets, Dominic Wilson, head of Goldman Sachs global-markets research in New York, wrote in a Jan. 5 report to clients. The firm’s strategists estimate the S&P 500 will end 2011 at 1,500, up from 1,283.76 at 4 p.m. in New York yesterday. They aren’t alone in their confidence.
- Euro Drops After IMF Official Says Europe 'Skepticism' Persists. The euro fell for the first time in five days versus the dollar after an International Monetary Fund official said Europe has yet to allay investor “skepticism” about the sustainability of the region’s debt. The currency dropped versus 15 of its 16 major counterparts as the IMF’s Deputy Managing Director Naoyuki Shinohara said European nations need to “tackle structural issues” such as boosting growth. The yen rose for the first time in four days against the euro on speculation Japan’s exporters took advantage of the biggest drop in six weeks to buy their currency. “The steps that the European Union officials can announce in terms of increasing the fund’s size that they have to help the peripheral countries can still take a few weeks to happen,” said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Singapore-based head of global currency strategy at UBS AG, in a Bloomberg Television interview. “I’d rather still be a seller of the euro on the rallies.”
- EU Bailout Rates May Need to Drop for Aid to Work: Euro Credit. Europe should reduce the interest rate on emergency aid to Ireland by 50 percent when revamping the financial backstop meant to stem the euro-area debt crisis, say economists, including David Mackie at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Ireland faces an average charge of about 5.8 percent for an 85 billion-euro ($113 billion) rescue package offered in November by a group led by the European Union. The cost threatens to increase the debt load for an economy that the International Monetary Fund projects will grow less than 1 percent this year and below 2 percent in 2012. “Europe should be able to cut the borrowing rates by around half, or 250 basis points,” Mackie, JPMorgan’s head of western European economic research, said by telephone yesterday from London. “If you want to exit the crisis without government debt restructuring, the current rates will not do it. The borrowing rate is critical given that economic growth will be moderate for some time due to the magnitude of the fiscal tightening that is needed.”
- Spain's U.K. Ambassador Tells Sky News Markets Convinced by Measures. Spain’s ambassador to the U.K., Carles Casajuana, told Sky News in an interview that international bond markets are “quite convinced” that measures being taken by the Spanish government to reduce the country’s deficit are “going to take effect.” Responding to questions on whether the European Union should evolve into a single European state, Casajuana said with the Lisbon treaty and political union already in place, “we are moving towards that.” While the U.K. isn’t part of the euro area and thus isn’t expected to participate in bailouts of euro countries in difficulties, “it’s in the U.K.’s interest that the euro is stable,” Casajuana said, and “we would like to see solidarity amongst member states.” “It would be much better for everybody if the U.K. was part of the eurozone,” he said.
- Brazil to Offer $1 Billion of Reverse Currency Swaps to Stem Real Advance. Brazil’s central bank will offer tomorrow reverse currency swaps, the equivalent to buying dollars in the futures market, as President Dilma Rousseff’s administration steps up efforts to curb a currency rally. The bank will offer 20,000 contracts worth $1 billion between 9 a.m. and 9:30 a.m. New York time, according to a statement on its website. Results of the auction will be published at 9:45 a.m. The real, which has surged 38 percent against the U.S. dollar in the past two years, gained 0.1 percent today to 1.6726 per U.S. dollar.
- Texas Short Seller Fights China Fraud in $20 Billion U.S. Shares. On an April afternoon in 2009, in his home office near Austin, Texas, John Bird was hunched over his computer trying to figure out if a Chinese company some 6,500 miles away was anything close to what it claimed to be. A silver-haired short seller, Bird, 62, projects an air of relaxed amusement. His philosophy is reflected in a sticker from “The Big Lebowski” over his door: “The Dude Abides...” Some things he takes very seriously, including what he calls the “sanctity of math.” On that afternoon it was being defiled in his eyes by the claims of China Sky One Medical Inc., a maker of slimming patches and hemorrhoid ointments. Sky One, according to its annual report, was selling out its inventory and resupplying almost every seven days. That, Bird says he knew from experience in business, was impossible. Sky One, Bird would find, wasn’t the only stock recently arrived from China to defy financial speed limits, Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Jan. 17 issue. It’s one of about 370 Chinese companies -- with a combined market value of at least $20 billion -- that have obtained U.S. listings since 2004 without the rigors of initial public offerings. Some of them have reported numbers making Bird suspect what he calls “flat-ass” fraud. The Securities and Exchange Commission hasn’t until recently paid much public attention to what Bird describes as a pattern, at a time when investors are still recovering from the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme.
- Permal Asset Bets on U.S. Stock, Macro Hedge Funds on Asia Inflation Risks. Permal Asset Management Inc., a Legg Mason Inc. unit that invests clients’ money in hedge funds, plans to increase allocations to U.S. equity and global macro funds as emerging countries struggle to cap a rise in inflation. “In emerging markets, the macro economic conditions are now negative,” Isaac Souede, New York-based chairman and chief executive officer of Permal, said in an interview. “The American equity market should do better than the emerging market equities until these countries manage to engineer soft landings.” The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index of U.S. stocks rose 13 percent in 2010, compared with declines in emerging markets such as China and Brazil. Capital inflows, a driving force of the recovery in emerging countries, now pose risks to global growth as they can trigger abrupt currency fluctuations that may do “lasting damage” to some nations, the World Bank said yesterday. The Washington-based bank expressed concerns about the possibility of asset bubbles in the East Asia and Pacific regions, whose largest economies include China, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia. Permal will invest more in macro funds to protect its portfolios from price fluctuations in emerging markets, amid concerns central banks in Asia will raise rates to curb inflation, Souede, 59, said in Singapore.
- 'Desperate Housewives' Hold Out for Pay Raise at ABC. Walt Disney Co.’s ABC, running last this season in the viewers marketers target, is unable to renew its most-popular drama “Desperate Housewives” because of pay demands by three stars, people familiar with the situation said. Felicity Huffman, Marcia Cross and Eva Longoria are seeking a raise, said three people with knowledge of the demands. Teri Hatcher has signed a new contract, said one of the people, who sought anonymity because the talks with ABC aren’t public. In August, TVGuide.com put their pay at $400,000 each per episode.
- IRS Proposes Ending Secrecy of U.S. Accounts Owned by Foreigners.
- Galle Global Hedge Fund Closing After a Year as Withdrawals Shrink Assets. Galle Global Macro Partners LLC, the hedge fund founded by Sri “Wije” Wijegoonaratna, a former Fortress Investment Group LLC executive, is shutting down about a year after it started. The firm, based in New York, plans to return most money to investors next month, Wijegoonaratna said in a letter to clients today.
- Gates Says China Military-Civilian Disconnect Cause for Concern. U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said that the apparent lack of communication between China’s civilian and military leadership is “something of a worry” for the United States. Gates, speaking in Japan following a three-day trip to China, said Chinese President Hu Jintao and the civilian leadership seemed to be unaware that the military was carrying out a test flight on Jan. 11 of a new jet fighter that may have stealth capabilities. “This is an area where, over the last several years, we have seen some signs of, I guess I would call it a disconnect, between the military and the civilian leadership,” Gates said, adding that while such lapses occasionally occur in the U.S. too, “this is something of a worry.”
- China Loose Policy to Shape Global Capital Flows, Fortress's Levinson Says. A failure by Chinese officials to anchor inflation expectations by tightening monetary policy may hasten a reversal of capital flows out of emerging markets into developed economies, said Adam Levinson, co-chief investment officer of global macro funds at Fortress Investment Group LLC . China’s policy stance is too loose and officials should be more aggressive in curbing inflation now to avoid more “draconian” measures later, Levinson said in Singapore.
- Toyota(TM) Readying Electric Motors That Don't Use Rare Earths.
- China Failing to Enforce Sanctions on Iran's Nuclear Program, Expert Says. China remains “a major gap” in enforcing global sanctions on Iran, with lax oversight enabling front companies to purchase sensitive materials that can advance Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability, a leading expert on Iran’s nuclear program said. “China does not implement and enforce its trade controls or its sanctions laws adequately,” David Albright, a nuclear physicist who inspected Iran’s nuclear facilities for the United Nations’ atomic energy agency in the 1990s, said yesterday at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a Washington research institute. “Over and over, Iran goes there to buy things,” including high-strength maraging steel, specialty vacuum pumps, Kevlar and carbon fiber used for machinery that produces enriched uranium, said Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington. The comments come just ahead of Chinese President Hu Jintao’s state visit to Washington next week.
- Giffords's Condition Still Improving. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, recovering from a gunshot wound to the head, is opening both eyes, moving her arms and legs, and undergoing intense physical therapy, her doctors said Thursday. Doctors at the University Medical Center in Tucson said the congresswoman was rubbing her eyes and yawning, and that her eyes could also track people's movements—a sign that she could see.
- Economists More Upbeat About Pace of Recovery. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal are increasingly optimistic about the pace of the recovery, predicting the U.S. will grow at better than a 3.2% annual rate in each quarter this year. "The U.S. economy appears to have successfully navigated the adjustment from a recovery driven primarily from economic stimulus and inventory rebuilding to one driven by private domestic demand and rising exports," said economists at Wells Fargo & Co. "Three percent growth looks pretty good, particularly with housing stuck in low gear." Economists have steadily grown more upbeat about growth in recent months and boosted their estimates for the fourth quarter of 2010 in this survey. On average, respondents now estimate the U.S. grew 3.3% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter—up from an estimate last month of 2.6% growth. The economy grew 2.6% in the third quarter.
- SEC Probes Banks, Buyout Shops Over Dealings With Sovereign Funds. The Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether banks and private-equity firms violated bribery laws in their dealings with sovereign-wealth funds, according to people familiar with the matter. The SEC has sent letters of inquiry to Citigroup Inc.(C) as well as private-equity firm Blackstone Group LP(BX), the people said. The letters are said to have been sent to as many as 10 firms in the past week, one person said. Though the letters didn't contain specific allegations of bribery, they requested that firms retain documents and asked about the firms' dealings with sovereign-wealth funds, the people said. The wave of investments by sovereign-wealth funds in U.S. financial companies over the past several years included stakes in Citigroup, Merrill Lynch & Co. before its acquisition by Bank of America Corp., and Morgan Stanley. For example, China Investment Corp., which manages more than $300 billion, invested in both Morgan Stanley and Blackstone.
- Others Got Early 'Poke' on Facebook Deals. Of all the things Goldman Sachs Group Inc. can crow about in the unusual deal to help wealthy clients invest in Facebook Inc., it wasn't the first securities firm to open a back door into the closely held social-networking site. In September, small Atlanta brokerage firm J.P. Turner & Co. started pitching a $25 million fund that was set up to buy and hold Facebook shares until the Palo Alto, Calif., company goes public or is acquired. Felix Investments LLC in late 2009 launched two funds to snap up Facebook shares. The names of the deals: Facie Libre I and Facie Libre II, a rough Latin morphing of "face" and "book." The deals and their creators are now in the spotlight as regulators scrutinize how Wall Street is scurrying to satisfy demand for shares in closely held Internet companies such as Facebook, Twitter Inc. and LinkedIn Corp. The Securities and Exchange Commission wants to know if the offerings and a patchwork of secondary exchanges are helping companies evade the agency's 500-shareholder limit for private firms. SEC officials also are worried about the valuation of shares that change hands in such deals. "There is a level of murkiness," said Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida and an authority on initial public offerings.
- New Hit to Strapped Sates. Borrowing Costs Up as Bond Flops; Refinancing Crunch Nears. With the market for municipal bonds tumbling, cities, hospitals, schools and other public borrowers are scrambling to refinance tens of billions of dollars of debt this year, another sign that the once-safe market is under duress. The muni bond market was hit with the latest wave of bad news Thursday, prompting a selloff that sent the market to its lowest level since the financial crisis. A New Jersey agency was forced to cut the size of a bond issue by about 40% because of mediocre demand, and pay a higher rate than expected. And mutual fund giant Vanguard Group shelved plans for three new muni bond funds, citing market turmoil. The market has fallen every day this week, and investors have been net sellers of their holdings in municipal-bond mutual funds for nine straight weeks, according to fund tracker Lipper FMI.
- Pack Mentality Grips Hedge Funds. Hedge funds are crowding into more of the same trades these days, amplifying market swings during crises and unnerving investors. Such trading has stoked market jitters in recent months and helped to diminish the impact of corporate fundamentals on stock-market movements. Droves of small investors have reacted by pulling money from the market, questioning its stability and whether fast-moving traders are distorting prices. The pack behavior undermines the image of hedge-fund chiefs as savvy money managers who sniff out investment opportunities that others don't see—thereby justifying the hefty fees they charge clients. It also suggests that hedge funds are having a harder time coming up with money-making ideas in rocky markets. During the bull market, hedge funds regularly generated strong returns as broad stock-market indexes marched higher. But since the start of 2009, the average performance of hedge funds has trailed the return of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in six out of eight quarters, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.
- EPA Blasted as It Revokes Mine's Permit. The Environmental Protection Agency, in an unusual move, revoked a key permit for one of the largest proposed mountaintop-removal coal-mining projects in Appalachia, drawing cheers from environmentalists and protests from business groups worried their projects could be next. The decision to revoke the permit for Arch Coal Inc.'s(ACI) Spruce Mine No. 1 in West Virginia's rural Logan County marks the first time the EPA has withdrawn a water permit for a mining project that had previously been issued. It's also only the second time in the 39-year history of the federal Clean Water Act that the agency has canceled a water permit for a project of any kind after it was issued, according to the agency.
- Real Pain From Illinois Tax Hike Looms in 2012. The federal government might be giving taxpayers a break with a temporary 2-percentage-point decrease in Social Security payroll taxes. But thanks to the biggest state budget shortfall in the nation, residents of Illinois will also be hit with a 2-percentage-point increase in state income taxes, as the Wall Street Journal reported. Hiking the state’s income tax from 3% to 5% (that’s a flat rate for all individuals) amounts to a stunning 67% increase in the income tax rate.
- Home Depot's(HD) Fix-It Lady. Chief Financial Officer Carol Tomé has a shot at CEO, if she can solve the retailer's technology problem. Carol B. Tomé, the chief financial officer at Home Depot (HD) and a leading contender to be the retailer's next chief executive, has caught the technology bug. "I can't wait until the day when I have my credit card loaded up on my smartphone, and I don't even have to carry my wallet—just walk around with my phone," she says, gesturing toward the orange-and-beige Store No. 121, visible from her 22nd-floor conference room in Atlanta. "It's tap and go. It's going to happen. It's all ages, all generations." It is September, and Home Depot is weeks away from unveiling a mobile app allowing consumers to order merchandise via their iPhone or iPad. "We're already there," Tomé says, visibly pleased that the home-improvement chain would beat its smaller but faster-growing rival, Lowe's, in the race to introduce such a feature. Lowe's still hasn't introduced its iPhone app, yet Home Depot's small victory is misleading. The world's largest retailer of potting soil and two-by-fours has actually lagged in technology.
- Banks Entering 'Golden Age' With 20% Profit Growth: Bove. The banking industry is entering another "golden age," with so much cash on hand that earnings will grow 20 percent annually over the next few years, well-known banking analyst Dick Bove told CNBC.
- Intel(INTC) Results Surpass Street Forecasts; Shares Edge Up. Intel revenue and margin forecasts beat expectations on healthy technology spending, defying worries about the chipmaker's minor role in the booming smartphone and tablet market. Shares in the world's largest chipmaker gained 2.7 percent after its forecast for first-quarter revenue and gross margin surpassed expectations, driven by hopes for strong sales of its cutting-edge Sandy Bridge microprocessors.
- Groupon, Pandora Pursue Public Offerings.
- Coinstar(CSTR) Shares Whacked on Disappointing Outlook. Shares of Coinstar were walloped in after-hours trading after the company released disappointing preliminary earnings. Shares fell more than 30 percent in late trading Thursday. The Thursday close price was $56.95.
- Video Game Sales Fall, Despite Kinect Boost. December software sales slip 8% as retail game sales weaken further.
- Photos: Brazil is Being Smashed by Massive Floods Right Now.
- Forget The Rally, Morgan Stanley(MS) Tells Its Clients to Short the Euro.
New York Times:
- Banks Are Poised to Pay Dividends After 3-Year Gap.
- Groupon IPO Said to Value the Company at $15 Billion. Groupon, the social buying site that spurned a $6 billion offer from Google, is pushing ahead with plans for its initial public offering, a debut that could value the company at $15 billion or more.
Politico:
- Optimistic, Biden Seeks 'Free' Iraq. Vice President Biden said Thursday that a democratic and prosperous Iraq is "the single most significant strategic thing that can happen to the United States" in the Middle East. Biden, speaking at the start of a meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, said it is the United States' "one overwhelming desire." "The single best thing that can happen to the United States, literally, is for you to be a free, prosperous democracy in the middle of this part of the world," said Biden. "It's the single most significant strategic thing that can happen to the United States in this region."
- 26% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction. Twenty-six percent (26%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, January 9. That's down a point from last week and back to levels found in early December. Confidence that the country is moving in the right direction is down to 48% among Democrats from 59% the week before Election Day. Among all voters, confidence in the nation's current course hovered around the 30% mark for roughly a year but began falling at the end of November. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of voters say the country now is heading down the wrong track, up three points from last week.
- Just 29% Believe Health Care Repeal Will Increase Deficit. Some supporters of the national health care law say its repeal will drive up the federal budget deficit, but most voters believe repeal will either reduce or have no impact on government spending and the deficit. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% believe repeal will reduce government spending, and another 21% say repeal will have no impact. Just 28% of Likely U.S. Voters believe repeal of the health care law will increase federal spending.
Reuters:
- Al Qaeda Group Said to Eye Thermoses to Attack U.S. An alert by U.S. authorities last month about carrying insulated drink containers on planes stemmed from intelligence that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula operatives may try to hide explosives in them, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday.
- Goldman(GS) Reveals Fresh Crisis Losses. Goldman Sachs has revealed details of about $5bn in investment losses suffered during the crisis for the first time this week, in a move that will deepen the debate over companies’ financial disclosures. The figures, issued as part of internal reforms aimed at silencing Goldman’s critics, show that the bank suffered $13.5bn in losses from “investing and lending” with its own funds in 2008. But Goldman’s regulatory filings and its executives’ comments to investors at the time pointed to about $8.5bn of losses arising from its investments in debt and equity, as markets were rocked by the turmoil.
- Europe Fears Motives of Chinese Super-Creditor. The EU authorities fear that China's purpose in buying eurozone debt may be double-edged, intended to push up the euro exchange rate against the yuan and gain advantage for exports. Herman Van Rompuy, Europe's president, said during a visit to Downing Street that the Chinese may have "political" thoughts in the back of their minds for coming to Europe's help, and gave a strong hint that they are also engaging in currency manipulation. "When they buy euros, the euro becomes stronger and their currency a little bit weaker. That is not neutral in regard to their competitive position. But I go no further in this topic. It could be too delicate," he said. China was the secret buyer in a private placement of €1.1bn of Portuguese debt last week, according to the Wall Street Journal. Finance minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said China "may well have been" a key buyer in this week's debt auction. China was not the only force at work. Traders say the European Central Bank (ECB) acted aggressively behind the scenes, calling some 20 dealers to buy Portuguese debt in the secondary market. This created what amounted to a "short-squeeze" in Portuguese bonds just before auction, causing spreads to tighten dramatically and inflicting damage on market makers acting in good faith. City sources say this has caused some bitterness. A WikiLeaks cable from the US embassy in Beijing last January cites the EU's mission chief, Alexander McLachlan, saying Spain had tried to curry favour with Chinese leaders, "seeking advantage at other EU states' expense". He said China was fully aware of Madrid's game but was exploiting intra-EU divisions to gain leverage. China's second goal is to secure market economy status from the EU. This would make it much harder for the EU to impose anti-dumping measures against Chinese imports. As it happens, the EU has just lifted its punitive tariff on Chinese shoes. Mr Grant said Beijing will not risk much cash to woo Europe. "They are very hard-nosed. They may splash some money around for goodwill but they are not going to waste the hundreds of billions that may be needed. Nothing short of meaningful action by Europe's leaders can genuinely stabilise the eurozone," he said. "It is debatable whether China would actually be willing to become buyer of last resort of the debt of a country close to default," said Julian Jessop from Capital Economics. "Chinese officials are acutely aware of past losses and will not want to be seen to risk their peoples' capital on a lost cause. Their actions frequently fall short of expectations raised by their words."
- EU President Seeks 'More Economic Convergence'. Britain must submit to “surveillance” of its budget to promote a co-ordinated European Union economic policy, the EU president has said. Herman van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, said there must be “more convergence” between the economies of all EU members and not just those using the euro. Even as Mr van Rompuy spoke in London, David Cameron was insisting that Britain’s position outside the euro meant it was not obliged to take part in any “harmonisation” of economic policies.
- Kubota Corp., an Osaka-based farm-equipment maker, will spend about $60 million to build a tractor plant in the U.S. state of Georgia by 2012. The factory will produce about 20,000 tractors a year.
- China won't rule out introducing new price control measures if inflationary pressures in the first quarter are too great, citing Zhou Wangjun, deputy director of the pricing department a the National Development and Reform Commission. Inflation remains "relatively large" so far in the first quarter, compared with last year, Zhou said.
Citigroup:
- Rated (NM) Buy, target $6.50.
- Rated (KNX) Buy, target $23.
- Rated (WERN) Buy, target $27.
- Rated (ABFS) Sell, target $24.
- Rated (CSX) Buy, target $80.
- Rated (NSC) Buy, target $76.
- Rated (UNP) Buy, target $112.
- Reiterated Buy on (TGT), target $72.
- Asian equity indices are -.75% to +.50% on average.
- Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 108.50 +1.5 basis points.
- Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 109.50 +1.25 basis points.
- S&P 500 futures +.05%.
- NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
- (MTB)/1.45
- (JPM)/1.00
- (WBS)/.20
8:30 am EST
- The Consumer Price Index for December is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.1% gain in November.
- Advance Retail Sales for December are estimated to rise +.8% versus a +.8% gain in November.
- Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas for December are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in November.
- Industrial Production for December is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.4% gain in November.
- Capacity Utilization for December is estimated to rise to 75.6% versus 75.2% in November.
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for January is estimated to rise to 75.5 versus 74.5 in December.
- Business Inventories for November are estimated to rise +.7% versus a +.7% gain in October.
- (PATR) 3-for-1
- (ADVS) 2-for-1
- The Fed's Lacker speaking and the Fed's Rosengren speaking could also impact trading today.