Bloomberg:
- Syria held an official ceremony to mark the withdrawal of its remaining soldiers and intelligence agents from Lebanon and the end of 29 years of military presence in the country.
- Germany’s six leading economic institutes cut their forecast for growth this year in half to .7% as consumer spending slows and unemployment reaches levels not seen since WWII.
- Japan’s household spending, buffeted by reduced overtime hours and stagnant wages, fell for a second month in March and the economy lost jobs, suggesting consumers won’t help sustain a recovery from last year’s recession.
- Billionaire Ken Langone, who’s considering a takeover bid for the NYSE, wants to close its trading floor, ending the way the world’s biggest stock market has operated for more than two centuries.
- Shares of Roche Holding AG and partner Genentech jumped after research showed their Herceptin treatment cut the risk of relapse among women newly diagnosed with an aggressive form of breast cancer.
- IBM’s top 50 managers will give up pay increases this year after the company had trouble closing orders last quarter.
- US Treasury notes are falling after a report showed new-home sales surged 12.2% to a record pace, adding to evidence that housing is still contributing meaningfully to economic growth.
Wall Street Journal:
- The NYSE and Archipelago plan to offer a menu of products besides stocks as they seek to widen profit.
- The US Senate may debate a bill to legalize the status of hundreds of illegal immigrant college grads in coming months.
- More US corporations are starting campus recruiting drives from fall to spring, suggesting demand for candidates with a MBA degree is growing.
- The National Academies, the leading US scientific advisory body, plans to issue ethics guidelines on embryonic stem-cell research today, including not paying donors for eggs or other tissues.
NY Times:
- AIG found at least $1 billion more in accounting errors in an internal review than previously disclosed.
- Qwest Communications may increase its bid for MCI to $32 a share if Verizon Communications matches Qwest’s $30 a share offer from last week.
- Wall Street executives, including Merrill Lynch CEO O’Neal, are questioning Goldman Sachs’ role in adviser in the NYSE’s proposed takeover of Archipelago.
- Neiman Marcus has received bids for its credit card unit from American Express, Citigroup and HSBC Holdings.
USA Today:
- US federal lawmakers have accepted $16 million in privately funded trips since 2000, with more than half sponsored by nonprofit organizations that don’t have to say who’s footing the bill.
AP:
- Wal-Mart Stores will move most over-the-counter cold and allergy medicine to the pharmacy in all of its stores by early June.
Detroit News:
- GM may close more North American plants.
Boston Globe:
- Massachusetts lawmakers yesterday agreed on details of a stem-cell research bill, moving the measure closer to becoming a law.
AFP:
- Oil spills worldwide plunged over the past 30 years because of improvements in ship engineering.
Tuesday, April 26, 2005
Economic Releases
- Consumer Confidence for April fell to 97.7 versus estimates of 98.0 and a reading of 103.0 in March.
- New Home Sales for March soared 12.2% to 1431K versus estimates of 1190K and an upwardly revised 1275K in February.
- New Home Sales for March soared 12.2% to 1431K versus estimates of 1190K and an upwardly revised 1275K in February.
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Helmut Sohmen, the Hong Kong-based tycoon who controls the world's largest closely held shipping company, said oil tanker rates this year will be below the record reached in 2004 as more ships are launched.
- North Korea said it would regard any sanctions by the UN as an act of war, after Washington said it may take the issue of the communist nation's nuclear program to the UN Security Council.
- US venture-capital investments dropped 7.9% in the first quarter, as funding for biotech companies fell amid declines in biotech stocks and withdrawals of key drugs, a survey found.
Wall Street Journal:
- Microsoft and SAP AG will jointly develop and sell software that combine their two main lines of business products.
Reuters:
- North Korea may conduct a nuclear test by June 15, citing David Kay, a weapons expert who headed the US-led search for banned arms in Iraq.
Financial Times:
- The European Union's probe of Chinese textiles is discriminatory and risks damaging trade relations with China, said Cao Xinyu, vice chairman of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import & Export of Textiles.
- Merrill Lynch is leading a group negotiating with Banca Intesa SpA, to buy over $13 billion of bad loans from Italy's biggest bender by assets.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MSFT, GLK, AMLN, SBC, EBAY, TRI and SII.
- Reiterated Underperform on CR and SIRI.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.10%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AKS/.54
AFL/.63
AMZN/.23
AXP/.75
BJS/.62
EAT/.57
CME/1.93
COH/.22
GLW/.16
CVTX/-1.61
ESV/.24
ESRX/1.07
HLT/.13
IMCL/.32
INSP/.37
LLL/.82
LXK/1.03
LMT/.75
MHP/.35
MHS/.56
MNST/.17
NTES/.45
OXY/1.99
OMC/.80
PCAR/1.49
SLB/.61
SLE/.31
TROW/.70
WAT/.36
WBSN/.33
Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 EST:
- Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 98.0 versus a reading of 102.4 in March.
- New Home Sales for March are estimated to fall to 1190K versus 1226K in February.
Bloomberg:
- Helmut Sohmen, the Hong Kong-based tycoon who controls the world's largest closely held shipping company, said oil tanker rates this year will be below the record reached in 2004 as more ships are launched.
- North Korea said it would regard any sanctions by the UN as an act of war, after Washington said it may take the issue of the communist nation's nuclear program to the UN Security Council.
- US venture-capital investments dropped 7.9% in the first quarter, as funding for biotech companies fell amid declines in biotech stocks and withdrawals of key drugs, a survey found.
Wall Street Journal:
- Microsoft and SAP AG will jointly develop and sell software that combine their two main lines of business products.
Reuters:
- North Korea may conduct a nuclear test by June 15, citing David Kay, a weapons expert who headed the US-led search for banned arms in Iraq.
Financial Times:
- The European Union's probe of Chinese textiles is discriminatory and risks damaging trade relations with China, said Cao Xinyu, vice chairman of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import & Export of Textiles.
- Merrill Lynch is leading a group negotiating with Banca Intesa SpA, to buy over $13 billion of bad loans from Italy's biggest bender by assets.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MSFT, GLK, AMLN, SBC, EBAY, TRI and SII.
- Reiterated Underperform on CR and SIRI.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.01%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.10%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
AKS/.54
AFL/.63
AMZN/.23
AXP/.75
BJS/.62
EAT/.57
CME/1.93
COH/.22
GLW/.16
CVTX/-1.61
ESV/.24
ESRX/1.07
HLT/.13
IMCL/.32
INSP/.37
LLL/.82
LXK/1.03
LMT/.75
MHP/.35
MHS/.56
MNST/.17
NTES/.45
OXY/1.99
OMC/.80
PCAR/1.49
SLB/.61
SLE/.31
TROW/.70
WAT/.36
WBSN/.33
Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
10:00 EST:
- Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 98.0 versus a reading of 102.4 in March.
- New Home Sales for March are estimated to fall to 1190K versus 1226K in February.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mixed on earnings reports in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly higher in the morning on lower energy prices and positive earnings reports. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into tomorrow.
Monday, April 25, 2005
Monday Close
Indices
S&P 500 1,162.10 +.87%
DJIA 10,242.47 +.83%
NASDAQ 1,950.78 +.96%
Russell 2000 596.44 +1.17%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,452.76 +.93%
S&P Barra Growth 562.26 +.80%
S&P Barra Value 595.47 +.93%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.20 +.49%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 713.05 +.85%
Morgan Stanley Technology 443.75 +1.07%
Transports 3,470.80 +.89%
Utilities 369.55 +.87%
Put/Call .79 -14.13%
NYSE Arms .66 -54.09%
Volatility(VIX) 14.62 -4.94%
ISE Sentiment 161.00 +25.78%
US Dollar 83.82 +.38%
CRB 308.68 +.45%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.15 -.77%
Unleaded Gasoline 163.96 -.69%
Natural Gas 7.12 -.45%
Heating Oil 151.00 -.53%
Gold 436.10 +.07%
Base Metals 125.15 -1.0%
Copper 148.20 -.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.24% +.05%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.19%
Gaming +1.91%
I-Banks +1.83%
Lagging Sectors
Airlines +.19%
Drugs -.03%
Papers -.29%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GD.
- Reiterated Underperform on HBAN.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Microsoft named International Paper’s Christopher Liddell as CFO.
- Adelphia Communications, the bankrupt US cable-tv operator, agreed to pay about $715 million to settle a federal fraud case, the Justice Department said.
- A federal grand jury has indicted 14 members of the Chicago Mob for participating in a conspiracy that committed 18 murders, corrupted law enforcement organizations and extorted businesses, prosecutors said today.
- Billionaire Kenneth Langone said John Mack, the former CEO of CSFB, will help lead a potential offer for the NYSE.
- US Senate Democratic leaders said they may be willing to allow Senate votes on some of President Bush’s seven disputed judicial nominees to avoid a showdown that threatens to stymie legislation.
S&P 500 1,162.10 +.87%
DJIA 10,242.47 +.83%
NASDAQ 1,950.78 +.96%
Russell 2000 596.44 +1.17%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,452.76 +.93%
S&P Barra Growth 562.26 +.80%
S&P Barra Value 595.47 +.93%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 577.20 +.49%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 713.05 +.85%
Morgan Stanley Technology 443.75 +1.07%
Transports 3,470.80 +.89%
Utilities 369.55 +.87%
Put/Call .79 -14.13%
NYSE Arms .66 -54.09%
Volatility(VIX) 14.62 -4.94%
ISE Sentiment 161.00 +25.78%
US Dollar 83.82 +.38%
CRB 308.68 +.45%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 54.15 -.77%
Unleaded Gasoline 163.96 -.69%
Natural Gas 7.12 -.45%
Heating Oil 151.00 -.53%
Gold 436.10 +.07%
Base Metals 125.15 -1.0%
Copper 148.20 -.13%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.24% +.05%
Leading Sectors
Homebuilders +2.19%
Gaming +1.91%
I-Banks +1.83%
Lagging Sectors
Airlines +.19%
Drugs -.03%
Papers -.29%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on GD.
- Reiterated Underperform on HBAN.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Microsoft named International Paper’s Christopher Liddell as CFO.
- Adelphia Communications, the bankrupt US cable-tv operator, agreed to pay about $715 million to settle a federal fraud case, the Justice Department said.
- A federal grand jury has indicted 14 members of the Chicago Mob for participating in a conspiracy that committed 18 murders, corrupted law enforcement organizations and extorted businesses, prosecutors said today.
- Billionaire Kenneth Langone said John Mack, the former CEO of CSFB, will help lead a potential offer for the NYSE.
- US Senate Democratic leaders said they may be willing to allow Senate votes on some of President Bush’s seven disputed judicial nominees to avoid a showdown that threatens to stymie legislation.
BOTTOM LINE: US stocks finished higher today on merger activity, lower energy prices and a bounce from Friday’s sell-off. The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Internet, Homebuilding and Computer longs. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market remained modestly positive into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished modestly higher, almost every sector rose and volume was very light. Measures of investor anxiety were lower. Overall, today’s market action was slightly positive, considering the news. I would like to see stocks rise on better breadth and volume before becoming more optimistic on the near-term.
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