Monday, August 22, 2005
Monday Watch
Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said August sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range as food sales outpaced general merchandise for the sixth week in a row.
- Northwest Airlines mechanics, saying they’d rather see the carrier go bankrupt than yield to demand for job cuts, went on strike.
- The US dollar is poised for a second consecutive week of gains against the euro amid rising interest rates and the most bullish trader sentiment since June 24, according to a Bloomberg survey.
- US Treasuries are benefiting from a rising dollar and yields that are higher than on comparable German, Canadian and Japanese government bonds.
- US companies, which have been reluctant to part with their mountain of cash, may start spending more of it – and spur the economy in the process.
- North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il may give up the communist nation’s nuclear weapons program in return for security guarantees, energy and economic aid.
Barron’s:
- KFx says its most recent effort to create a coal-drying process that improve the energy content of western US coal will work, and shareholders are sitting tight and hoping the company is right.
New York Times:
- The prices of big-screen televisions are likely to drop further in coming months, citing industry analysts.
- At least 10 of more than three dozen members of the Bancroft family, which controls Dow Jones, are “unhappy” about the performance of the company’s management.
- Some investment advisers are recommending caution of energy stocks, forecasting that record-high crude oil prices may drop.
- Real estate investment trusts focused on categories as narrow as car dealerships, movie theaters and college dormitories are getting increased attention from institutional investors.
San Francisco Chronicle:
- California’s unemployment rate last month fell to 5.1% from 5.4% in June.
- California owners of hybrid-electric cars are rushing to get state permits that let them drive without passengers in freeway carpool lanes, with about 1,000 people applying per day.
Philadelphia Inquirer:
- European drug companies are focusing on the US because of its pool of scientists, funding for research, and market without price controls.
Washington Post:
- Russian’s crumbling biological research laboratories may be vulnerable to penetration by terrorists and criminal gangs who could unleash the diseases that the system was built to combat.
- The Washington Redskins football team has become one of the most profitable professional sports franchises in the US since marketing executive Daniel Snyder bought the team in 1999.
Oil & Gas Journal:
- US oil demand fell in July by the greatest amount in 3 1/2 years.
Reuters:
- Denmark’s Grundfos A/S said yesterday that two employees paid bribes to Iraqi authorities under the UN/Iraq oil-for-food program.
London’s Sunday Times:
- The families of up to 2,000 UK users of Vioxx, a painkiller owned by drug-maker Merck, may sue the company in the US.
- Google and Yahoo! may seek to buy Trader Classified Media NV, the publisher of Canada’s Auto Trader, to increase customers.
the Business:
- Dow Jones’ controlling owner, the Bancroft family, has received three takeover bids.
Sunday Morning Post:
- Donald Trump plans to have a Chinese version of his US reality television program “The Apprentice.”
Sunday Telegraph:
- Iran is supplying bombs triggered by an infrared beam to insurgents in Iraq.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on PG.
- Had negative comments on SINA.
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CAKE.
- Reiterated Underperform on HRB.
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.16%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
HNZ/.49
Upcoming Splits
HRB 2-for-1
Economic Releases
None of note
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said August sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast range as food sales outpaced general merchandise for the sixth week in a row.
- Northwest Airlines mechanics, saying they’d rather see the carrier go bankrupt than yield to demand for job cuts, went on strike.
- The US dollar is poised for a second consecutive week of gains against the euro amid rising interest rates and the most bullish trader sentiment since June 24, according to a Bloomberg survey.
- US Treasuries are benefiting from a rising dollar and yields that are higher than on comparable German, Canadian and Japanese government bonds.
- US companies, which have been reluctant to part with their mountain of cash, may start spending more of it – and spur the economy in the process.
- North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il may give up the communist nation’s nuclear weapons program in return for security guarantees, energy and economic aid.
Barron’s:
- KFx says its most recent effort to create a coal-drying process that improve the energy content of western US coal will work, and shareholders are sitting tight and hoping the company is right.
New York Times:
- The prices of big-screen televisions are likely to drop further in coming months, citing industry analysts.
- At least 10 of more than three dozen members of the Bancroft family, which controls Dow Jones, are “unhappy” about the performance of the company’s management.
- Some investment advisers are recommending caution of energy stocks, forecasting that record-high crude oil prices may drop.
- Real estate investment trusts focused on categories as narrow as car dealerships, movie theaters and college dormitories are getting increased attention from institutional investors.
San Francisco Chronicle:
- California’s unemployment rate last month fell to 5.1% from 5.4% in June.
- California owners of hybrid-electric cars are rushing to get state permits that let them drive without passengers in freeway carpool lanes, with about 1,000 people applying per day.
Philadelphia Inquirer:
- European drug companies are focusing on the US because of its pool of scientists, funding for research, and market without price controls.
Washington Post:
- Russian’s crumbling biological research laboratories may be vulnerable to penetration by terrorists and criminal gangs who could unleash the diseases that the system was built to combat.
- The Washington Redskins football team has become one of the most profitable professional sports franchises in the US since marketing executive Daniel Snyder bought the team in 1999.
Oil & Gas Journal:
- US oil demand fell in July by the greatest amount in 3 1/2 years.
Reuters:
- Denmark’s Grundfos A/S said yesterday that two employees paid bribes to Iraqi authorities under the UN/Iraq oil-for-food program.
London’s Sunday Times:
- The families of up to 2,000 UK users of Vioxx, a painkiller owned by drug-maker Merck, may sue the company in the US.
- Google and Yahoo! may seek to buy Trader Classified Media NV, the publisher of Canada’s Auto Trader, to increase customers.
the Business:
- Dow Jones’ controlling owner, the Bancroft family, has received three takeover bids.
Sunday Morning Post:
- Donald Trump plans to have a Chinese version of his US reality television program “The Apprentice.”
Sunday Telegraph:
- Iran is supplying bombs triggered by an infrared beam to insurgents in Iraq.
Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on PG.
- Had negative comments on SINA.
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on CAKE.
- Reiterated Underperform on HRB.
Night Trading
Asian indices are +.50% to +1.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.08%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.16%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
HNZ/.49
Upcoming Splits
HRB 2-for-1
Economic Releases
None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, spurred by financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher, boosted by gains in Asia. My trading indicators are still giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
Friday, August 19, 2005
***Alert***
I will be unable to blog much this weekend due to a scheduling conflict. Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!
Stocks Modestly Higher Mid-day Even as Oil and Rates Rise
Indices
S&P 500 1,221.79 +.23%
DJIA 10,589.48 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,138.94 +.13%
Russell 2000 652.82 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,165.93 +.23%
S&P Barra Growth 585.35 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 632.03 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.15 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.91 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.90 +.27%
Transports 3,711.68 +.02%
Utilities 393.94 +.64%
Put/Call 1.14 +14.0%
NYSE Arms .97 -14.21%
Volatility(VIX) 13.11 -2.31%
ISE Sentiment 147.00 -6.96%
US Dollar 88.56 unch.
CRB 314.27 +.81%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.70 +2.34%
Unleaded Gasoline 189.00 +1.45%
Natural Gas 9.10 +1.98%
Heating Oil 183.50 +2.49%
Gold 442.10 -.58%
Base Metals 129.03 +.23%
Copper 161.05 +.50%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.20% +.27%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.78%
Energy +1.61%
Networking +1.07%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -.23%
Tobacco -.41%
Airlines -.46%
S&P 500 1,221.79 +.23%
DJIA 10,589.48 +.33%
NASDAQ 2,138.94 +.13%
Russell 2000 652.82 +.25%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,165.93 +.23%
S&P Barra Growth 585.35 +.22%
S&P Barra Value 632.03 +.23%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.15 -.04%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 739.91 +.24%
Morgan Stanley Technology 497.90 +.27%
Transports 3,711.68 +.02%
Utilities 393.94 +.64%
Put/Call 1.14 +14.0%
NYSE Arms .97 -14.21%
Volatility(VIX) 13.11 -2.31%
ISE Sentiment 147.00 -6.96%
US Dollar 88.56 unch.
CRB 314.27 +.81%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 64.70 +2.34%
Unleaded Gasoline 189.00 +1.45%
Natural Gas 9.10 +1.98%
Heating Oil 183.50 +2.49%
Gold 442.10 -.58%
Base Metals 129.03 +.23%
Copper 161.05 +.50%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.20% +.27%
Leading Sectors
Oil Service +1.78%
Energy +1.61%
Networking +1.07%
Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -.23%
Tobacco -.41%
Airlines -.46%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher mid-day on gains in my Medical and Semiconductor longs. I exited my IWM and QQQQ trading shorts this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is higher, most sectors are rising and volume is very light. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is positive, considering the rise in energy prices and long-term rates. Earlier today on CNBC, T. Boone Pickens said he is keeping a very close eye on fourth-quarter oil demand. This is what I hear almost every energy trader say. I continue to believe 4Q U.S. and Chinese oil demand growth estimates are substantially too high. As terrorism and hurricane fears peak in September and it becomes glaringly obvious that oil supplies are overwhelming demand, an accelerated downward move in energy prices should occur as traders "sell the news." I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher from current levels into the close on short covering.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- French consumers pared spending in the second quarter by the most in more than eight years as high unemployment and rising gas prices further damped economic growth in Europe’s third-largest economy.
- Airbus SAS has struggled for 20 months to design an intercontinental plane to compete with Boeing’s fuel-saving 787.
- US Treasuries are falling on speculation yields at about the lowest since July offered little value after reports this week showed bigger-than-expected gains in manufacturing and wholesale prices.
- Crude oil is rising more than $1/bbl. in New York as production disruptions in Ecuador and a failed rocket attack on two US Navy vessels in Jordan heightened supply concerns.
- The US dollar is headed for its biggest weekly gain against the euro in more than two months as signs that the gap between US growth and European growth is widening.
Wall Street Journal:
- Baidu.com has protected itself from a takeover with a dual-class share structure that gives original shareholders 10 times the voting rights of those who bought shares in the US IPO.
- Talented US high school students are using the Internet to take more advanced college classes at Stanford University, Johns Hopkins University and the University of Missouri and other schools.
- Hollywood marketing executives are realizing that network-tv advertising isn’t the powerful tool it once was as the summer movie season draws to a close.
- Investors, keen to take advantage of growth in Chinese stocks, should avoid putting too much money into the nation’s $400 billion stock market.
- US ranchers are turning to lawsuits and seeking damages to fight environmentalists for what they say are unwarranted accusations of ecological damage caused by cattle.
- Danskin, a maker of women’s activewear, dancewear and hosiery, and other apparel distributors including AnnTaylor Stores are turning yogawear into streetwear to follow the latest fashion trend.
NY Times:
- US home prices since 1980 have risen more slowly than the stock market. Home in San Francisco, two of the hottest markets, have risen 7% a year, compared with a 10% annual rise in the S&P 500.
- GM doesn’t face the immediate threat of bankruptcy, though that outlook isn’t as certain beyond two or three years.
Interfax:
- Russia’s Federal Security Service has information that terrorists are trying to obtain weapons of mass destruction, citing the service’s chief Nikolai Patrushev.
- French consumers pared spending in the second quarter by the most in more than eight years as high unemployment and rising gas prices further damped economic growth in Europe’s third-largest economy.
- Airbus SAS has struggled for 20 months to design an intercontinental plane to compete with Boeing’s fuel-saving 787.
- US Treasuries are falling on speculation yields at about the lowest since July offered little value after reports this week showed bigger-than-expected gains in manufacturing and wholesale prices.
- Crude oil is rising more than $1/bbl. in New York as production disruptions in Ecuador and a failed rocket attack on two US Navy vessels in Jordan heightened supply concerns.
- The US dollar is headed for its biggest weekly gain against the euro in more than two months as signs that the gap between US growth and European growth is widening.
Wall Street Journal:
- Baidu.com has protected itself from a takeover with a dual-class share structure that gives original shareholders 10 times the voting rights of those who bought shares in the US IPO.
- Talented US high school students are using the Internet to take more advanced college classes at Stanford University, Johns Hopkins University and the University of Missouri and other schools.
- Hollywood marketing executives are realizing that network-tv advertising isn’t the powerful tool it once was as the summer movie season draws to a close.
- Investors, keen to take advantage of growth in Chinese stocks, should avoid putting too much money into the nation’s $400 billion stock market.
- US ranchers are turning to lawsuits and seeking damages to fight environmentalists for what they say are unwarranted accusations of ecological damage caused by cattle.
- Danskin, a maker of women’s activewear, dancewear and hosiery, and other apparel distributors including AnnTaylor Stores are turning yogawear into streetwear to follow the latest fashion trend.
NY Times:
- US home prices since 1980 have risen more slowly than the stock market. Home in San Francisco, two of the hottest markets, have risen 7% a year, compared with a 10% annual rise in the S&P 500.
- GM doesn’t face the immediate threat of bankruptcy, though that outlook isn’t as certain beyond two or three years.
Interfax:
- Russia’s Federal Security Service has information that terrorists are trying to obtain weapons of mass destruction, citing the service’s chief Nikolai Patrushev.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)