Monday, September 19, 2005

Stocks Sharply Lower Mid-day on Spiking Energy Prices and Fears Over Tropical Storm Rita

Indices
S&P 500 1,228.85 -.73%
DJIA 10,536.14 -.99%
NASDAQ 2,140.55 -.92%
Russell 2000 666.71 -.78%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,271.00 -.68%
S&P Barra Growth 585.71 -.74%
S&P Barra Value 638.89 -.74%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 581.85 -1.08%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 726.72 -1.30%
Morgan Stanley Technology 499.59 -.97%
Transports 3,587.45 -1.33%
Utilities 428.97 +.03%
Put/Call .81 unch.
NYSE Arms 1.01 +34.59%
Volatility(VIX) 12.40 +10.62%
ISE Sentiment 194.00 +79.63%
US Dollar 88.47 +.47%
CRB 327.18 +3.74%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 67.30 +6.83%
Unleaded Gasoline 202.70 +13.55%
Natural Gas 12.62 +13.24%
Heating Oil 203.60 +10.91%
Gold 469.20 +1.27%
Base Metals 124.20 -.89%
Copper 165.50 +3.89%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.23% -.82%

Leading Sectors %
Oil Service +3.22%
Energy +2.82%
Coal +1.40%

Lagging Sectors
Wireless -1.71%
Retail -1.75%
Airlines -3.30%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly lower mid-day on losses in my Energy-related shorts and Retail longs. I exited a few shorts this morning as they hit stop-losses and added substantially to my TLT long and IWM/QQQQ shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio market neutral. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is about average. Measures of investor anxiety are mixed. Today’s overall market action is slightly negative given the spike in energy prices. Today's action is tough to gauge, but complacency seems rather high given the potential risks to the economy from another hurricane. Rising expectations of a Fed "pause" are likely the reason. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower from current levels into the close on increasing worries over high energy prices and Tropical Storm Rita.

Today's Headlines

- North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear arsenal and rejoin a global treaty to halt the spread of weapons of mass destruction in return for US guarantees of security and energy assistance.
- Grape growers in California’s Napa Valley said they are expecting their biggest harvest in four years.
- Norsk Hydro ASA, Norway’s second-largest oil company, agreed to buy Spinnaker Exploration of the US for $2.45 billion to gain fields in the Gulf of Mexico.
- Iran agreed to allow stepped-up inspections by UN atomic experts, as US and European delegates began negotiations to avoid the escalation of a dispute over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear ambitions.
- L. Dennis Kozlowski was sentenced to 8 1/3 to 25 years in prison for looting Tyco International Ltd.
- Crude oil and gasoline are rising, as natural gas surged to an all-time high, on forecasts that Tropical Storm Rita will strengthen into a major hurricane and make landfall in Texas or Louisiana.

Wall Street Journal:
- Hispanic illegal immigrants in the Gulf region struck by Hurricane Katrina who are unable to benefit from federal and state assistance are migrating across the US.
- Teaching business has become big business in China with US private-equity firms such as Carlyle Group moving into the market.
- Exchange-traded funds that are actively managed, while retaining some of the main advantages of an ETF, are being prepared.
- IBM plans to continue its strategy of staying out of the applications business while partnering with applications vendors to sell its own products.

NY Times:
- The US and its allies are seeking a resolution from the UN nuclear monitoring agency that would declare Iran’s nuclear program non-compliant to rules.
- A coalition of 500 doctors, and hospitals, insurers and employers in NY’s Hudson Valley region are creating a Web-based central electronic patient-records database that is affordable for small doctors’ offices.

NY Post:
- Donald Trump, chairman of Trump Entertainment Resorts, has reached a deal with Warner Music Group to launch Trump Mobile, a product featuring audio and video ringtones and Trump wallpaper for cell phone screens.

Economic Releases

None of note

Links of Interest

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said September sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
- OPEC should raise output quotas for the sixth time in 15 months as oil and gas prices stay near record highs, the ministers for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said.
- Qatar is planning a $1.8 billion refinery to process heavy crude oil as gasoline and diesel demand rises and regulations stall construction of new plants in Europe and the US.
- Afghans voted today in the country’s first legislative elections since 1969.
- Kuwait is in talks with the Bush administration to build an oil refinery in the US, seeking to construct the nation’s first new plant in three decades.
- The euro is falling to a month’s low versus the US dollar in Asia after German opposition leader Angela Merkel and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder each claimed the right to run the government after an inconclusive result in elections yesterday.

Wall Street Journal:
- Centennial Communications, which provides wireless-telephone services in the US and the Caribbean, is considering selling itself in a deal worth as much as $1.5 billion.
- Wal-Mart Stores has created a prototype store in a Dallas suburb with wider aisles, lower shelves and more displays of pricier products as it seeks to lure more wealthy shoppers.

TheDeal.com:
- After raising $4 billion in a 14.2 million-share secondary offering late last week, Google Inc. is sitting on a total of roughly $7 billion in cash.

Washington Post:
- The US is realigning its forces in the Pacific in reaction to China’s escalating power.
- The Washington, DC police dept. plans to deploy several hundred officers to counter an antiwar rally and march near the White House on Sept. 24.

NY Times:
- New Orleans residents including Barry Kern of Kern Studios are looking ahead to holding Mardi Gras next year as they recover from Hurricane Katrina.
- The Walt Disney Co. will release the first of four computer-animated films on Nov. 4 as it tries to match the success of rivals Pixar and DreamWorks Animation SKG.

Boston Globe:
- AES Corp. has proposed building a $500 million liquefied natural-gas plan on Outer Brewster Island in Boston Harbor.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Philadelphia and neighboring country health-care facilities are spending more than $4 billion to build and expand their properties after years of closings in the area.

AFP:
- Iraqi lawmakers approved amendments to the country’s draft constitution and sent the charter to the United Nations, which will print five million copies for the public before an Oct. 15 referendum.

Independent on Sunday:
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair accused the British Broadcasting Corp. of “gloating” over the devastation to the southern US from Hurricane Katrina.

The Business:
- Tesco Plc, the biggest UK food retailer, is considering a purchase of Albertson’s Inc. that could value the second-largest US grocery chain at $7.6 billion.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on APC, BP, COCO, COP, DUK, ETR, EXC, WYE, MO, HPQ, FD, EMR, DSX and PMCS.
- Had negative comments on HXM, BA and IP.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EMC.
- Reiterated Underperform on EDS.

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.12%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.12%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AES/.15
CCL/1.35
NKE/1.42

Upcoming Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for September is estimated at 67 versus a reading of 67 in August.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, spurred by gains in mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower on higher energy prices and rising apprehension ahead of Tuesday’s Fed meeting. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, September 18, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are a few important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - NAHB Housing Market Index
Tues. - Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC Rate Decision
Wed. - None of note
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Leading Indicators
Fri. - None of note

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - AES Corp.(AES), Nike Inc.(NKE)
Tues. - Circuit City(CC), Goldman Sachs(GS)
Wed. - Autozone(AZO), Bed, Bath & Beyond(BBBY), Biomet(BMET), Carmax(KMX), Cintas(CTAS), ConAgra(CAG), FedEx Corp.(FDX), Morgan Stanley(MWD)
Thur. - Darden Restaurants(DRI), General Mills(GIS), KB Home(KBH), Oracle Corp.(ORCL), Palm Inc.(PALM), Solectron(SLR)
Fri. - GTECH Holdings(GTK)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - OPEC Ordinary Meeting, Banc of America Investment Conference
Tue. - JP Morgan Software Forum, Banc of America Investment Conference, Semi Book-to-Bill
Wed. - Goldman Sachs Global Communacopia Conference, Banc of America Investment Conference
Thur. - Banc of America Investment Conference
Fri. - Goldman Sachs Telecommunications Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher. The Fed will likely raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate 25 basis points on Tues. However, the policy statement will probably contain language that overtly states they will “pause” temporarily to allow for further evaluation of data in the aftermath of Katrina. Initial Jobless Claims will take another large jump higher this week as more hurricane victims are able to file. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.